The 10 Biggest NHL Prospect Busts of the Last 15 Years
What makes an NHL prospect or player a bust?
That's a complicated question.
I tend to define it as underperforming relative to one's draft position, because that's the simplest way to look at it, but player development in hockey is not one-size-fits-all and there's nuance here. Development paths are unique to each player, and reaching the NHL takes time.
At the same time, it's fair to say that if you're taken in the first round of the NHL draft, and especially in the upper half of that first round, there are specific expectations. You are seen as being on a faster timeline than the players chosen after you, whether that is the right timeline for you or not. And when you don't live up to that, the bust label gets applied quickly and generously.
Some important caveats for this list: we aren't looking at anyone from the last 4-5 years, because it's too early to slap a "bust" label on this guys in my opinion. We also aren't including anyone whose development paths have been derailed primarily by injuries; think Nolan Patrick, Alex Turcotte, Gabriel Vilardi. If you haven't been chronically injured (I have) you don't have a good perception of how deeply frustrating that is, particularly for a professional athlete, and they're not "soft". They're just injured.
Boston Bruins' 2015 Draft
1 of 10
I could not write this article without highlighting this stumble.
The Bruins had an opportunity to pick the following players: Mathew Barzal, Kyle Conno, Thomas Chabot, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Brock Boeser, amongst others.
And then Bruins general manager Don Sweeney, who somehow still has that job, got up and picked Jakub Zboril, Jake DeBrusk, and Zachary Senyshyn.
DeBrusk, at least, is still in the NHL, currently with the Vancouver Canucks. Zboril is in the Czech Extraliga playing for HC Vítkovice, and Senyshyn is currently playing for the Schwenninger Wild Wings of the Deutsche Eishockey Liga. And look, we're all working with the benefit of hindsight here, but I could've told you, even in 2015, that picking these three while players like Barzal, Brock Boeser, Chabot, or Kyle Connor were still on the board was a terrible idea.
With hindsight, we can throw Kirill Kaprizov, Sebastian Aho, and Troy Terry onto that list.
Nail Yakupov, Edmonton Oilers, 2012 NHL Draft
2 of 10
We can't talk about Nail Yakupov as a bust without first acknowledging that he got the short end of a stick in Edmonton.
Between horrible treatment from the media and a carousel of coaches that didn't hit pause until after he was gone, this guy was not put in any sort of position to succeed, despite the expectations placed on his shoulders for him to be the savior of the Oilers (or at least the latest incarnation of that role). He came in for the lockout-shortened season, got pounded by the media for daring to be fun—remember the knee slide?—and only came in fifth in Calder Trophy voting.
But then you have to add to that the fact that his skill, outside of his incredible shot, was not what it should've been for a first overall pick, which is its own sort of "not being put in a position to succeed".
He wasn't great defensively, though he didn't have a consistent coach to help him determine what he needed to improve, and that sort of thing gets exacerbated over time. The 2012 NHL Draft was not a good one overall, if we're being honest; the better players available at the time were Morgan Rielly, Jacob Trouba, and Alex Galchenyuk. With hindsight, we can point out that Andrei Vasilevskiy should've been an option.
Drafting is hard, and succeeding with the Edmonton Oilers from approximately 2008-2016 is even harder.
Filip Zadina, Detroit Red Wings, 2018 NHL Draft
3 of 10
We really thought Filip Zadina would be able to translate those incredible offensive skills we saw in the QMJHL to the NHL level, so his (relative, though not complete) lack of defensive ability didn't matter.
Many such cases.
Zadina had so much promise in his draft year; he was touted as a pure goal scorer, putting up gaudy numbers like 44 goals. But had we looked closer (and by "we", I do include myself—not being seduced by Q scoring is a tough lesson for all of us prospect folks to learn), we would've noticed not only his defensive deficiencies, but the fact that his decision-making also needed work.
And after the draft, he made the jump to professional hockey too quickly (in my opinion) and then had one of his early seasons derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Zadina is currently playing for HC Davos of the Swiss National League, and I'd mark him down as more of a bust relative to draft position than a complete bust overall. And as a cautionary tale to look past any flashy QMJHL scoring totals for metaphorical warts that may bite you later.
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Kieffer Bellows, New York Islanders, 2016 NHL Draft
4 of 10
Ah, Kieffer Bellows. This one, Zadina, and a couple of others later in this piece are mostly just me dragging myself. I got swayed by Bellows' scoring in his draft season—he hit the 50-goal mark, and then added some assists—and thought, yeah, that's definitely a worthy first-round pick. There are some concerns outside of his scoring, but he can round out the rest of his game in college.
He did not round out the rest of his game in college.
Instead, he left college for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL and went on to string together an up-and-down career in which he only surpassed the 30-NHL-games-in-a-season mark once, in 2021-22, when he played 45 games for the New York Islanders. This season, he's with Brynäs IF of the SHL. Bellows' most significant issues were consistency and impact away from that scoring touch—when the scoring isn't happening, and you aren't bringing much else, you start to look far less appealing.
And there was also that time in 2020 when he violated the AHL's Performance-Enhancing Substances program (though he served his time and came back, appearing in the NHL for at least a few games in most seasons since). Another guy who simply underperformed his draft slot.
Michael Dal Colle, New York Islanders, 2014 NHL Draft
5 of 10
Something I really value in a prospect, especially these days, is a sense of urgency and a no-quit motor. That can be a double-edged sword; in junior, having a strong motor or pace to your game can help cover a multitude of sins, so you have to be careful to look at a guy's other details. But when a player hits the pro leagues, if he doesn't have a sense of urgency to his game, it's lights out.
Dal Colle never really developed that motor. He didn't skate with any urgency, didn't have that intensity when he was playing, and he wasn't bringing physicality either. He had an excellent shot and great driving ability.
But if you have play driving abilities and no motor, where exactly are you driving that play to, I might ask? Certainly not the net. Being a big guy who can't skate well limits you to begin with. If you have that issue and don't have a high-level motor, you're probably going to end up being that guy whose skill shone at the lower levels but who doesn't have the oomph to use it in professional leagues.
Griffin Reinhart, New York Islanders, 2012 NHL Draft
6 of 10
Griffin Reinhart, taken fourth overall in 2012, was rated so highly in his draft year, and looking back, I'm not sure why.
He was a big guy, but not an intimidating physical force; scouts were mentioning even then that he wasn't hard to play against defensively, which is not something that you want people saying at all, but especially not when you're a defenseman. He had skill, but he wasn't a great skater, and this was the time when the NHL was beginning to shift rapidly toward favoring very mobile defensemen.
Reinhart was described as a "steady puck-moving defenseman good in his own end. I'm sure that was true. But because of those changes, it was no longer good enough to be good in your own end, and speed was becoming more important. And not just foot speed, but the speed at which players processed the game. That was Reinhart's Achilles heel; his other tools were serviceable enough, but he didn't think or process the game at pro game speeds.
Add to that the expectations that come along with being taken fourth overall in the draft, and you have a recipe for heartbreak.
Oliver Wahlstrom, New York Islanders, 2018 NHL Draft
7 of 10
I personally was higher on Oliver Wahlstrom than I was any of these other guys, and I really thought he was going to figure it out. He's currently playing for the San Jose Barracuda of the AHL, and he's only 25; chances are not low that he makes it back to the NHL.
But right now, he qualifies for the bust list, particularly about his draft position. He was a big goal-scoring guy, really impressive on the offensive front, but he just never quite put it together. He looked like he'd be a potential 40+ goal scorer at the NHL level; it turned out that the rest of his game wasn't good enough to support him at the pro level when the offense turns off.
Personally, I think Wahlstrom turned pro too soon. He should've stuck it out at Boston College for at least another season, if not another couple of seasons. The glaring issues with his game, including consistency, skating limitations (that's a big one), and defensive awareness, are all things that he could've worked on against NCAA competition. And that's not with the benefit of hindsight; I could've told you that at the time.
Lias Andersson, New York Rangers, 2017 NHL Draft
8 of 10
I'm sure that anyone who keeps up with prospects, or just tunes in to the World Junior Championships for another opportunity to be patriotic about hockey, remembers the temper tantrum Lias Andersson threw in 2018, when he threw his silver medal into the stands.
It's possible, in hindsight, that that should've been a sign. Andersson's most significant issues were consistency and maturity, and his skill level was overhyped. He also had to contend with being played in limited fourth-line minutes when he did get NHL opportunities, which was not a great way to show off the skill he did have. He left the NHL at age 25 to play in Switzerland.
It is important to acknowledge that, in addition to Andersson needing to take responsibility for the drawbacks in his own game, the New York Rangers do not provide a good development environment. You can see with the experience with players like Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko that the development team in New York just doesn't know how to get the best out of these youngsters.
It is one thing to say "X prospect needs to improve Y," and it is another thing entirely to give them opportunities to improve whatever Y may be. Any time I see a prospect I like with the Rangers who isn't bulletproof great, I get concerned about his future. Take that as you will.
Ryan Merkley, San Jose Sharks, 2018 NHL Draft
9 of 10
Even during his draft season, there were rumors of attitude problems and a lack of taking things seriously on Ryan Merkley's part.
I'm typically loath to believe rumors like this at face value, preferring to wait and see or dig for more information, but given how his career played out, I'm inclined to believe them. We've seen immature choices—a slashing suspension from 2018 comes to mind—and blaming others, though some years down the road, we would also see Merkley take some accountability for this. I went to bat for him a lot back in the day because his pure skill was so good, but he's a prime example of that adage "hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard".
In today's game, and especially on defense, poise and accountability are so crucial. He simply lacked that. He was aware of it even before he was drafted, noting to an interviewer that he needed to work on his mental game. Seems like perhaps he didn't. It's a pity, because Merkley was a whip-smart player with skill to spare. Merkley currently plays for the Straubing Tigers of the DEL.
Olli Juolevi, Vancouver Canucks, 2016 NHL Draft
10 of 10
In 2017, the Vancouver Canucks saw a guy who was really successful for the London Knights in junior hockey and who reminded them of Olli Maatta, who had just won his second Cup in a row with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and drafted him immediately.
They ignored the fact that the game of hockey had changed significantly since Maatta was drafted, and that style wasn't working as it had back then, and that Maatta had needed to adjust his own game to remain successful.
Olli Juolevi was not a bad player, per se, and he certainly isn't the "ultimate NHL bust" some Canucks fans have called him. But he also had no business being drafted where he was. He played a style of game that didn't really exist anymore, and on top of that, lacked strength and avoided physicality. When you add the fact that he didn't show consistent development, particularly on the defensive side of his game, those unrealistic expectations put him in a position to fail. Are we sensing a theme here?
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