Ranking Heisman Trophy Finalists' NFL Potential

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the heavy favorite to win this year's Heisman Trophy. Is he the best NFL prospect among those set to attend the festivities in New York City, though?

Recent history changed the perception of the Heisman Trophy in relation to NFL position. The last five winners were selected among the following draft class' top two picks. Seven of the last eight also fall into that category. Derrick Henry was the last not to hear his name called in the first round.

But it's not all that long ago when Heisman Trophy winners were viewed as scattershot talents who weren't considers sure things when it came to the professional ranks. Troy Smith, Jason White, Eric Crouch and Chris Weinke all won after the turn of the millennium. Each proved to be great college players yet didn't have what it took to be a high draft pick or do much at the highest level.

Granted, a high draft pick does not equate to long-term success. However, it provides a glimpse into how NFL organization view an individuals' overall talent.

Among this year's four finalists, four are likely future first-rounds picks. Though the one with the best chance of succeeding in the NFL is not the Heisman frontrunner.

Round Out the Top 10

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Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez

The following six individuals earned enough votes to crack this season's top-10 Heisman Trophy voting but weren't invited to New York City. This ranking is based on their specific NFL potential:

6. QB Haynes King, Georgia Tech - King is an unbelievably tough and gritty leader of an ascending program. However, he lacks the tools as a passer to be considered a legitimate NFL prospect, unless the 6'3", 215-pound athlete makes a position-switch.

5. QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia - Stockton will be talked about at length for the 2027 NFL draft, because the Bulldogs' signal-caller should go back to school for another season. His arm strength is suspect and his field vision must drastically improve.

4. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss - The Ferris State transfer turned into one of college football's best stories, because he's legit. He can play, as evidenced by winning this season's SEC Newcomer of the Year. A small frame will hold Chambliss back throughout the current evaluation process, but he should end up as a mid-round selection in April's draft.

3. LB Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech - NFL coaching staffs will fall in love with Rodriguez, because of his intelligence, toughness and nose for the football. The reigning Butkus Award winner is always making plays, with four interceptions and seven forced fumbles this season. Don't be surprised if he ends up going earlier in the upcoming draft than currently projected.

2. S Caleb Downs, Ohio State - Downs is Bleacher Report's No. 1-ranked prospect for the 2026 NFL class, yet he's No. 2 among this lineup. How is that possible? More on that in a bit. Right now, Downs is a legitimate difference-maker along a defensive back line capable of running an NFL secondary and thriving in any situation needed from the safety position.

1. WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State - Downs may be the No. 1 overall talent for the '26 class, but Smith will stake his claim to the same in 2027. The true sophomore has been awesome since he stepped onto campus, with back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns. The 20-year-old has a chance to earn a higher grade than former Buckeye Marvin Harrison Jr., who was B/R's top-ranked prospect in 2024.

Now, onto the actual finalists and where they stack up among one another...

4. QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

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Diego Pavia is easily fourth among the Heisman Trophy finalists when looking at their professional futures.

Pavia did a fantastic job elevating the Commodores program, to the point where it ranks among the nation's Top 15 after pulling out victories over the South Carolina Gamecocks, LSU Tigers, Auburn Tigers, Missouri Tigers and the in-state Tennessee Volunteers.

The reigning SEC Offensive Player of the Year threw for 3,192 yards, completed over 71 percent of his passes, connected on 27 touchdowns and ran for a team-leading 826 yards and nine more scores. Pavia talked the talk and walked the walk.

Three factors will hold him back as an NFL prospect, though.

His (listed) 6'0", 207-pound stature sits at the baseline of what's acceptable. He doesn't have the natural arm talent of a Baker Mayfield and certainly doesn't have the elite athleticism that Kyler Murray brought to the table.

Second, Pavia turns 24 prior to the 2026 NFL draft. While age isn't as detrimental to quarterbacks as it is for other positions, the two-time transfer doesn't present much untapped potential or natural upside.

Finally, the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm winner has a large personality. As seen with Shedeur Sanders' fall during the 2025 draft, teams don't want a rookie making much noise when he's slotted as a backup.

As of now, Pavia is a late-round option at best and could even go undrafted in April.

3. QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State

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Julian Sayin is only in his second collegiate season, so NFL scouts have plenty of time to figure out exactly who the quarterback is as a prospect.

Sayin needs that time, too, based on the way he played during the current campaign.

On a positive note, the 20-year-old took over a national championship-winning program and helped continue its lofty standard. Sayin wasn't a hindrance despite his lack of experience, with an impressive 78.4 completion percentage and 31-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

At the same time, his youth became obvious over time, particularly during the Big Ten Championship Game against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Sayin needs the next year or two to develop a better understanding of coverages and where to go with the ball. Ohio State is so talented that its offense often dictates what it wants to do. Against a legitimate defense, Sayin had a difficult time understanding his post-snap reads.

Furthermore, the 6'1", 208-pound signal-caller needs more time to mature physically and mechanically. Despite being a former 5-star recruit, Sayin doesn't have a big arm, but it's good enough. He can improve in this area through more consistent technique and simply getting a little stronger in the coming years.

Right now, Sayin is playing well above his class standing and experience level. But he still has significant development to do before he's considered a top-flight NFL quarterback prospect.

2. QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

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Fernando Mendoza has proven to be unflappable in the face of adversity, which is the No. 1 trait when evaluating him as a future NFL quarterback.

The Heisman Trophy favorite has a short memory. If Mendoza makes a mistake, he comes back as if nothing happened. He's not overwhelmed in the moment. Instead, the reigning Big Ten Most Value Player was nails in the conference's championship game against the Ohio State Buckeyes' pro-style defense, making multiple huge throws in high-pressure situations.

When his prototypical size, intelligence, arm strength and functional athleticism are thrown into the mix, Mendoza emerged as the clear-cut QB1 for the 2026 draft class.

"Mendoza reads coverages well, identifies vulnerabilities based on the play call and takes advantage of them," B/R scout Dame Parson wrote in the quarterback's scouting report. "He has a natural, strong understanding of how to play quarterback. Mendoza dissects defenses quickly and efficiently from the pocket. The speed of his mental process, paired with his quick decision-making, will fit into most NFL offensive concepts/structures."

However, Mendoza's standing is relative. He's best of a mostly disappointing position group. His one season at Indiana isn't on par with what Joe Burrow or even Jayden Daniels did at LSU. Mendoza isn't a natural playmaker like Caleb Williams, either. The Hoosier earned his status as the top incoming quarterback prospect, yet he won't be viewed as an elite option, even if the odds are in his favor to become next year's No. 1 overall pick.

Besides, the volatility of the quarterback position takes Mendoza down half-a-notch. Wherever he lands won't be a great situation. Everyone has seen top prospects go to bad teams, have to restart and then recapture some of those earlier expectations. Mendoza is talented, but he's not the best talent among this Heisman group.

1. RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

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Jeremiyah Love can be a top-five running back early in his NFL career.

The Fighting Irish ball-carrier is a modern back capable of effecting a game in multiple phases. Love ranks fourth overall in rushing yardage and all-purpose yards at the FBS level, which is impressive considering Notre Dame's poor usage plan for the talented back to start the season. He still could have been used more, particularly as a pass-catcher.

"Love is a dynamic and explosive running back who possesses the skill set to be a complete weapon in an NFL offense," Parson wrote in Love's scouting report. "He combines home-run top-end speed with route-running and pass-catching ability to impact the offense in multiple ways."

Currently, Love is carrying the same grade from the B/R scouting department as Ashton Jeanty did a year ago. However, Love is a different talent with better long speed and more versatility out of the backfield. According to Pro Football Focus, Love graded as the nation's top back and finished top three with 39 explosive runs. His usage should be more along the lines of what Alvin Kamara or Bijan Robinson do for their respective squads.

Also, the 20-year-old prospect is the highest-rated Heisman candidate among B/R's big board. Love is currently considered a top-four talent regardless of position. Obviously, running backs don't carry the same positional value as quarterback, hence why Fernando Mendoza will almost certainly go higher in April's draft. Yet Love's upside at his position is higher, with the potential to be a legitimate game-changer.

Running backs aren't headliners anymore, but the opportunity to land an elite talent and build an offense around them remains intriguing. Love is that caliber of prospect.