6 Things We Got Wildly Wrong About the 2025-26 NHL Season So Far

The 2025-26 NHL season has been full of surprises so far.

We've enjoyed the pleasant ones, like the Blackhawks finally having a bit of fun in the Connor Bedard era, the Ducks finally making it all click, and Trevor Zegras' redemption arc in Philadelphia. We've also endured the not-so-pleasant ones, like the amount of devastating injuries ravaging teams, Jack Hughes vs. his steak knife, and the utter chaos that is the Atlantic Division.

At the quarter mark of the season, let's reflect on six things it's already clear we got wildly wrong about the 2025-26 season.

The 2026 Free Agency Class Will Be Awesome

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Connor McDavid and Martin Necas

It used to be reasonable to assume that if the prior year's free agency class stunk, then at least there would be a more interesting free agency class to look forward to the next year. The NHL can fall into this pattern when it is locked into a CBA and/or a set of free agency rules for a while.

Well, we got that stinky 2025 free agency market and tried to look ahead to a more exciting 2026, but we failed to consider one big thing: The incoming CBA.

Set to take effect at the start of next season, the new CBA reduces the maximum extension years for in-house signings from 8 to 7. At the start of this season, we saw most stars with pending contracts stay with their teams, prioritizing the last opportunity to sign an eight-year contract. Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Martin Necas, Adrian Kempe, and Kyle Connor all took themselves off the upcoming market, inking eight-year extensions with their respective teams.

Where does this leave us? Well, the trade deadline had better be good. Given the transitional period we are in, once the new CBA kicks in, free agency should return to normalcy in 2027 as the cap continues to rise.

The Leafs Will Be Fine Without Mitch Marner

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Craig Berube

There was no question that the Leafs would feel the absence of their star 100-point winger. You knew it would sting even worse, given the lack of replacement options on the free market. Regardless, Toronto's struggles in the Mitch Marnerless era have been worse than we thought they'd be.

Look, it's not all about Marner. Key players have missed significant time, like Auston Matthews, Brandon Carlo, Chris Tanev, and Joseph Woll. The Leafs are looking better already with Woll's return, and just might turn a corner here.

Still, Marner's absence has been felt in two significant areas of the Leafs' game: the power play and the overall complexion of defense and neutral-zone play. The famously high-scoring Leafs have one of the worst power plays in the league right now at 15.2 percent, and you can tell that the Matthews and Marner connection is sorely missing.

The good news? The Atlantic Division is a mess, and even at T-3 worst in the division, the Leafs are just three points out of the three-way tie for the No. 2 spot. A few more reps for Woll, and a few scorers on the trade market, and this story could end differently. For now, though, it's clear Toronto is not the same team without an ace like Marner.

Mitch Marner Will Make Vegas the Favorite in the West

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Not so fast, Leafs haters: It hasn't been all sunshine and roses out west for Marner, either.

The Golden Knights shot up to favorites in the Western Conference in all the sports books once they traded for Marner. They've held their own at No. 2 in the Pacific Division, but their standings position doesn't reflect their play. They've been textbook loser points merchants, having now lost eight games in overtime. Mark Stone's injury has taken a toll in the clutch department, but the Golden Knights are hardly the favorites coming out of the West with the utter dominance of the Avalanche, the emergence of the Ducks, and the consistency of the Stars.

Marner himself is doing fine with five goals and 26 points in 25 games, but Vegas has work to do to compete with the Avalanche.

The Penguins Will Be All-In on the Tank

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In retrospect, we shouldn't have run with the premise that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin would roll over and accept some drastic tank as a sacrifice for an uncertain season in the future. They were two of the hottest players in the league to start the season as the Penguins got off to an unexpectedly strong start all around.

Injuries to key players -- especially Tristan Jarry in net -- have cooled the team off, but even then, Pittsburgh is 13-7-5 and very much in the playoff conversation in the messy East.

Will GM Kyle Dubas still sell at the deadline, or will the Penguins keep it up and do away with the re-tool entirely? Either way, no one is outright tanking over here.

The Panthers Are Going to Breeze to a 3-Peat

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Brad Marchand

On the one hand, the Panthers have mastered the ebb and flow of conserving energy and staying relevant throughout the last three regular seasons, all of which have resulted in trips to the Cup Final. On the other hand, they've never been quite banged up or looked this disheveled in the process.

Florida has played this entire season without stars Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, and the team has sorely missed Dmitry Kulokov on the penalty kill. The rest of the team has struggled to pick up the slack, and where the Panthers of regular seasons past would put together stretches of brilliance that kept everything afloat, the top-heavy injury situation has prevented that this year.

The Panthers sit at the bottom of the Atlantic at 12-12-1 with a negative-five goal differential. You should never count them out, but they've got their work cut out for them when Matthew Tkachuk returns, as they'll need to claw back into a playoff spot.

Bedard, Celebrini, and Schaefer Probably Won't Make the Canadian Olympic Team

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Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini

It really feels like Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Matthew Schaefer took pre-season claims that they wouldn't make the Canadian Olympic team personally. The rink in Milan might be three feet too short, but these Canadian budding stars might make up for the difference in heart and skill as they've become near locks for Team Canada with their early-season performances.

Celebrini has enjoyed a true breakout season in his second year as the Sharks' first-line center. He sits at No. 2 in the league with 40 points in 27 games. Guess who's right behind him? Connor Bedard, who's got 38 points in 26 games, a plus-10 rating that's pacing his much-improved Blackhawks, and 17 goals that are good for fourth in the league.

Then there's rookie Matthew Schaefer, the Islanders' 2025 No. 1 overall pick. The defenseman transitioned seamlessly into the league this season, logging difficult minutes on the Islanders' first pairing and helping the team become competitive. He leads all rookies in goals, and he's got 19 points total and a plus-seven rating in 27 games.