The Case Against The Chicago Bears as the NFC's No. 1 Team

The Chicago Bears have been one of this year's best stories. A team that has long lacked a true franchise quarterback appears to have one in second-year star Caleb Williams. A squad that has been desperate for a stable head coach seems to have found one in Ben Johnson.

A franchise that hasn't won a Super Bowl in 40 years has given fans reason to believe another run is possible.

With five weeks remaining in the 2025 regular season, the Bears hold the NFC's No. 1 seed. They just knocked off the reigning champs in convincing fashion, and they only need to keep winning to earn home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

Yet, one big challenge still lies in front of Chicago. The Bears need to earn the right to be considered the true top team in the NFC and legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The Bears Have Strengths That Will Translate to the Postseason

If the Bears hold onto the No. 1 seed, they'll only need to win a pair of home games to reach Super Bowl LX. That's not difficult to envision, considering Chicago has had winning streaks of four and five games this season.

There are reasons to believe that the Bears can fare well in the playoffs, even if they don't earn the top seed. Chicago has forged a physical offensive line and a top-five rushing attack led by D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

Johnson has schemed up a ground attack that just played bully ball against one of the league's top defenses in what wasn't a one-off performance.

Teams that can open holes and run the ball at will are usually a problem in January. Thanks to Williams' growth under Johnson, Chicago's offense isn't one-dimensional either.

The Bears have had an impressive receiving corps since last season, and they added Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III to the group in the spring. Having an impressive group has certainly helped Williams, but the second-year signal-caller is more than just a game manager.

Under Johnson, Williams is becoming a legitimate playmaker at the quarterback position. While not a run-heavy quarterback, he's a capable dual-threat, and he has a level of elite arm talent that few other quarterbacks can match. His traits have popped a bit more in Year 2 because of an improved offensive line and better pocket awareness.

After being sacked 68 times as a rookie, Williams has been sacked just 19 times in 12 games.

Offensively, Chicago can present most opponents with significant matchup problems.

But Chicago Has Significant Problems of Its Own

The Bears have found ways to win far more often than not this season, but some of their wins raise legitimate concerns. In Week 10, for example, Chicago had to mount a comeback against a two-win New York Giants team that lost starting quarterback Jaxson Dart during the game.

Last week, the Bears barely out-dueled the Mason Rudolph-led Pittsburgh Steelers.

The concerns go beyond the quality of Chicago's wins, too. Defense wins championships, and the Bears' defense has been opportunistic but too often inefficient.

With one game left to play in Week 13, the Bears' defense ranks 25th in sacks, 29th in hurry percentage, 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 30th in yards per carry allowed, 27th in yards allowed and 25th in points allowed.

Chicago's league-high 17 interceptions have helped cover a lot of warts.

Is the Bears' offense good enough to consistently win when the defense gets just a couple of key stops? Sure, when things are clicking. However, consistency has been an issue for the offense and for Williams, specifically.

Though Williams has flashed elite upside, he continues to struggle on a play-to-play basis. His 88.2 passer rating ranks 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 58.1 completion rate puts him behind quarterbacks like Justin Fields, Cam Ward, and Dillon Gabriel.

Should Williams see Jalen Hurts again or go up against Matthew Stafford in the playoffs, the quarterbacks who have delivered on the NFL's biggest stage will have a distinct advantage.

Now, it's important to remember that Williams is still developing as an NFL quarterback. He has shown growth, and he could very well be a top-10 passer within the next couple of years. However, he's not there yet, and any amount of quarterback uncertainty, combined with a suspect defense, makes it difficult to by into the Bears as legitimate title contenders.

Vegas, by the way, isn't buying into Chicago as a Super Bowl favorite. The Bears may have the NFC's best record, but they only have the 15th-best odds to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chicago has longer odds than the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that wouldn't even be in the postseason if the playoffs started today. It has the seventh-best odds in a conference it currently leads.

Chicago Can Change the Narrative Over the Final Five Games

The good news for Bears fans is that Chicago hasn't established itself as a legitimate contender yet. Five games remain on the regular-season schedule, and the Bears may still round into championship form.

That convincing win over the Eagles was certainly a step in the right direction.

Everyone will be forced to take the Bears more seriously if they beat the Packers in Green Bay on Sunday. And if this team navigates a brutal five-game stretch that includes two matchups with the Packers, the nine-win San Francisco 49ers, and a Detroit squad that thumped Chicago 52-21 back in Week 2, they'll be the sort of battle-tested group that can go on a championship run.

For all that Chicago has shown this season, though, it has plenty left to prove.

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