What Are Biggest Hits and Misses From 2025 NFL Draft Class So Far?

As a rule of thumb, an NFL draft class needs years before it can be accurately assessed. However, it's an ongoing and constant evaluation based on the individual and their respective situation.

A corporate employer doesn't wait two to four years to determine whether a new employee is working out, hence initial evaluation periods usually lasting six months to a year. An assessment is made rather early in the process as to whether the company made the right investment in a person to suit the needs of the team.

The same applies to young football players making their way through the transition from the collegiate to the professional ranks.

As it currently stands, five prospects stand out as those who have been excellent additions so far, while five have been identified as poor fits. Obviously, each situation can change over time. Right now, these individuals have either lived up to the immense expectations or fallen short.

Hit: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

The Carolina Panthers desperately needed a true WR1 going into the 2025 campaign. The organization got exactly what it needed when the Panthers front office drafted Tetairoa McMillan with this year's eighth overall draft pick.

McMillan leads all rookies with 54 receptions and 748 receiving yards. The latter statistic ranks sixth overall.

Carolina saw flashes of what quarterback Bryce Young could do over the second half of the 2024 campaign. Those glimpses were enough to ensure the team built around the '23 No. 1 overall draft pick instead of giving up on him after benching the quarterback early in the season. But Young didn't have a legitimate and consistent threat on the outside, which fed into a bottom three passing offense.

The Panthers have improved with McMillan since he provides the size and playmaking ability to be a focal point of the offense.

Earlier in the year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Emeka Egbuka looked like the runaway favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Two things developed that allowed McMillan to surpass Egbuka. First, the latter had the benefit of playing alongside Mike Evans to start his career. Second, Egbuka's production dropped off now that he's Tampa's No. 1 target and defenses are keying on the rookie receiver.

McMillan, meanwhile, doesn't have any other option but to be Carolina's top choice with its passing attack and he continues to thrive.

Miss: QB Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Kirk Irwin

The Cleveland Browns have pieced together an amazing draft class that will form the team's foundation for years to come. Unfortunately, the organization also took two unsuccessful bites of the apple at the game's most important position, which poisoned anything positive it did during the 2025 draft.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, of course, but the Browns have yet to find a sleeper at quarterback in Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders.

Sanders is just starting his trek, though. After Gabriel suffered a concussion in Week 11, the fifth-round rookie will get his first start this weekend. Sanders gets to determine his own fate from this point forward.

On the other hand, the Browns inexplicably invested a third-round pick in Gabriel despite obvious physical limitations.

"His arm talent/strength are average at best," B/R scout Dame Parson wrote in the quarterback's scouting report. "When windows are tightened by the defensive coverage, the ability to drive passes decreases. Gabriel will not be a fit for a vertical passing offense in the NFL. ... Gabriel is undersized without an elite trait, like speed or arm talent, to alleviate any concerns NFL front offices may have."

Unsurprisingly, these limitations became obvious as an NFL starter and severely hampered the Browns' offense despite the coaching staff's insistence on playing this year's 94th overall draft pick. Gabriel's ceiling is a long-term backup. The Browns have suffered because they tried to make him a starting option.

Hit: TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

A single statistic will show exactly how much of an impact Tyler Warren has made with the Indianapolis Colts this season and why he's been an immediate difference-maker in Shane Steichen's offense.

In only 10 games, Warren already has 150 more receiving yards than all of Indianapolis' tight ends could muster as a group during the 2024 campaign. [Insert eyeball emoji.]

The reigning John Mackey Award winner is doing at the professional level what he did last season with the Penn State Nittany Lions. Warren is putting up numbers and doing so in a variety of different manners—whether he's lined up as a traditional tight end, fullback, halfback, wing, out wide or even at quarterback.

"I think it's awesome," head coach Shane Steichen said, per J.J. Stankevitz of the Colts' official site. "I think anytime you have a player that's multiple, that can do different things and put him in positions to do those, and he's successful doing them, you add more to the table when you find different things on tape that you think he can take advantage of."

Warren opens up the Colts offense is a myriad of different ways. As a result, he leads rookie tight ends with 50 receptions and 617 yards. The latter ranks third among all tight ends.

Indianapolis was desperate to draft a tight end in this year's draft, and the Colts landed the best one.

Miss: WR Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Due to the multiple injuries Christian Watson suffered during his professional career, the Green Bay Packers were looking for a true No. 1 wide receiver during April's draft. The organization didn't find one in Matthew Golden despite selecting him with this year's 23rd overall pick.

Through nine appearances, Golden has 24 receptions for 286 yards and no touchdowns.

Wide receiver can take time when acclimating to the professional ranks, because the the position relies so heavily on understanding coverages while building a rapport with the quarterback to ensure everyone is seeing the same thing.

Golden proved to be a late-bloomer in college, with his last season being the best.

To be completely fair, the rookie receiver has dealt with a shoulder injury in recent weeks, which obviously slowed his progression to a degree. Also, the Packers have yet to feature him as part of the offense.

"He's trying to do all the little things that we ask our wide receivers to do without the ball with the blocking and everything else," offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said, per The Athletic's Matt Schneidman. "It's only a matter of time for him before he has one of those games where you're like, 'Oh, wow. That's why he's here.'"

A breakout performance very well may happen, but everyone is still waiting.

Hit: OG Jared Wilson, New England Patriots

Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini

Will Campbell is an obvious choice as hit, because he's been exactly what the New England Patriots needed to address left tackle and give Drake Maye a proper blindside protector.

While the previous statement is true, a little matter of starting an all-rookie left side to the offensive line is rare. Jared Wilson deserves more credit for taking over at left guard and solidifying the Patriots' front five.

"It's fun because it's different and it's uncommon," Wilson told reporters this week. "You don't ever see a left tackle and left guard be rookies—and they're both starting… It's been fun to hold up and do our jobs the best we can."

Campbell is doing what's expected of him, hence why the Patriots made him the fourth overall draft pick in this year's class. Wilson's ascension to the starting lineup wasn't a given, which makes it even more impressive.

New England drafted the Georgia product with this year's 95th overall pick. The third-round rookie only started one full season as part of the Bulldogs program, which came at center, not guard. While an argument should be made that Campbell has played better overall, Wilson's ascension into what looks like a long-term starter at a different position is a far bigger deal based on how poorly the Patriots' offensive line was constructed a season ago.

Miss: DL Kenneth Grant, Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins finished the 2024 season with a top 10 run-defense, but they're significantly worse now despite spending the 13th overall pick on the '25 draft class' top nose tackle, Kenneth Grant.

Not everything falls on Grant, of course. Miami didn't do enough to fortify its defensive front this offseason, particularly along the interior. At the same time, the Dolphins' front office knew of their roster issues, which forced the team into taking Grant so early in the process.

Currently, Miami ranks among the league's bottom four in run-defense, and Grant is a part-time contributor, who suffered his share of struggles.

In general, nose tackles are devalued. If they are selected in the first-round in any draft class, they better A) be nearly impossible to move at the point of attack and B) present some upside as an interior rusher to collapse the pocket. Dexter Lawrence is the prime example.

Grant has the size, strength and athleticism to do all of these things, but he's never done so on a consistent level. Now, he can't simply rely on his natural tools to overwhelm far more polished and powerful NFL blockers.

Slight improvement over the last few weeks isn't enough to assume Grant is trending toward becoming a dominant interior presence, particularly when the organization's initial investment is taken under consideration. The Dolphins paid too steep of a price for a marginal, at best, nose tackle.

Hit: LB Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Kirk Irwin

Multiple Cleveland Browns rookies can be included as hits among the current class, albeit with the aforementioned blind spot at the quarterback position. Sandwiched between the selections of a rising star at defensive tackle in Mason Graham and the NFL's leading rookie rusher, Quinshon Judkins, linebacker Carson Schwesinger has emerged as the class' crown jewel.

Schwesigner leads all rookies with 85 total tackles. This year's 33rd overall draft pick has also added 1.5 sacks, two defended passes and two interceptions. The linebacker's awareness and athleticism allow him to make plays all over the field in both phases of the game—which makes for a stunning transition because the former walk-on didn't become a full-time starter until Week 3 of his senior season at UCLA.

"I gave him a big compliment on Monday, because I was with Ray Lewis his first three years in the NFL," defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz told reporters. "I don't think—and Ray's obviously a Hall of Famer, maybe the best ever to play in the linebacker position—but the command that Carson has now in a lot of respects took until Ray's third year in the league before (he had that command)."

Whether Schwartz is bordering on hyperbolic or not, no one can argue against Schwesinger being a, if not the, top candidate for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Miss: Edge Shemar Stewart, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Almost everything has gone sideways for the Cincinnati Bengals since drafting Shemar Stewart with this year's 17th overall pick.

Initially, Stewart held out until July 25th based on a disagreement about contractual language that "would trigger the voiding of his salary guarantees with a breach or default by him," CBS Sports' Joel Corry noted.

The defensive end then suffered an ankle injury early in the season that knocked him out of the lineup for four weeks. He's currently on injured reserve because of a knee injury. Thus, Stewart has played in five of his first 10 NFL games.

When on the field, the Bengals aren't getting an explosive edge-rusher capable of picking up any slack left by Trey Hendrickson, who has also dealt with an injury. Instead, Cincinnati's first-round rookie is more of a hindrance than an asset.

As Russ Heltman of Sports Illustrated pointed out, Stewart is the NFL's lowest-graded rookie regardless of position and dead last among all edge-defenders. So far, the defensive lineman contributed only six total tackles and no sacks.

Considering the circumstances and how Stewart was viewed entering the draft, the Bengals placed the rookie and themselves in an impossible situation. The organization knowingly drafted a project that required significant development. Ownership's demand as part of contract negotiations delayed Stewart's chance to be fully prepared for the regular season. The injuries only exacerbated the underlying problem. As a result, defensive coordinator Al Golden understands Stewart is still in the "infant stage" of his transition to to the professional ranks, per The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr.

With how poorly the Bengals defense had played in 2024 and continues to play, Cincinnati's front office should have opted for a prospect far more ready to contribute early in his career.

Hit: S Xavier Watts, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Xavier Watts is a natural. His instincts and feel for the game cannot be questioned, even if the Atlanta Falcons haven't played well over the last five weeks.

This year's 96th overall draft pick snatched a pair of interceptions in first four games. His five passed defensed rank third among rookies (behind a pair of cornerbacks). He's also third on Atlanta's roster with 58 total tackles. Watts has stepped in from Day 1 and given the Falcons stability in the secondary.

"The kid's IQ is on another level," eight-year veteran Jessie Bates III previously said of his fellow safety. "He's very poised. We're very similar in our characteristics and how we go about ourselves. It wasn't very surprising to me, honestly. ... At this point, shoot, they've got to stop throwing at X, they can start throwing at me."

Atlanta invested a pair of first-round picks in its defensive front to boost an anemic pass-rusher. It helped to a degree. Yet the organization's best selection turned out to be the one playing along the backline.

"The beauty of X—and I'm getting to know him as we go here—he just feels like a guy that will never be satisfied," defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich told reporters after Watts won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month for September. "He's just going to keep pushing to get better. Guys have a little success early on. Sometimes that's dangerous. They kick their feet up and they believe, 'I got it.' And I don't feel that from him at all."

Miss: Edge James Pearce Jr., Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

James Pearce Jr. may never overcome the fact Atlanta traded a future first-round pick to move back into the 2025 draft's opening frame to select the pass-rusher.

Pearce has generated pressure and provided a boost despite only 2.5 sacks. According to Arkesh Ray of the Sports Illustrated, this year's 26th overall pick ranked second among rookies in pressures going into this past weekend's action.

At the same time, the Falcons probably hoped for a little more, particularly finishing and getting the quarterback to the ground. Still, Atlanta ranks second overall in sacks behind the Denver Broncos. Pearce and Jalon Walker have definitely helped to varying degrees.

The issue is the price Atlanta paid to acquire that second first-round pick. Due to the team losing five straight contests, the Falcons are currently scheduled to hand the Los Angeles Rams a top-eight draft pick, per Tankathon.

The Falcons missing out on the postseason once again, while not having a first-round pick, will hang over the organization, particularly if Pearce doesn't start to create a bigger impact on a week-by-week basis.

Sometimes the investment itself can foil what looks like a solid initial campaign, particularly if it backfires on an organization.