Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios in Race for No. 1 Pick in 2026 NFL Draft Order

The 2025 NFL season only recently passed its halfway point, but almost one-fifth of the league already has little left to play for.

Six teams have two or fewer wins heading into Week 11 (two of which already fired their head coaches), effectively putting them out of the running for a postseason spot with two months still left to play.

However, the upcoming offseason represents a chance to fix the glaring issues that are plaguing these clubs.

The draft will afford teams a chance to patch holes, especially for the team armed with the No. 1 overall pick. The handful of elite prospects in the running to be the first name called in late-April could help change a flailing franchise's fortunes.

With that in mind, let's highlight each of the squads currently in contention for the No. 1 overall pick, review their record and point out where they would be selecting if the draft were held today.

After that, we'll look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for these clubs in regards to draft position and the prospects they might end up with.

Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Las Vegas Raiders head coach Pete Carroll

Record: 2-7

Current Draft Slot: No. 6

The Raiders had no intentions of a rebuilding season, evidenced by their head coaching hire of Pete Carroll and trade for Geno Smith.

The veteran pair have failed to find the success they had during their tenure with the Seattle Seahawks, however, and it's looking like Vegas will need to stop seeking shortcuts at the quarterback position and find their franchise passer via the draft.

Best Case: Drafting Fernando Mendoza

By earning the top pick, the Raiders can finally land an elite quarterback prospect worth building around. While JaMarcus Russell—the organization's choice when it last held the No. 1 overall pick in 2007—was a major bust, Vegas should have far better luck with Fernando Mendoza.

The Indiana product rates as the top quarterback and No. 5 overall prospect on the latest Bleacher Report Scouting Department big board. He's having a Heisman-worthy campaign, completing 71.3 percent of his passes for 2,342 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 240 yards and five scores on 56 totes during his first 10 games with the Hoosiers.

B/R scout Dame Parson noted Mendoza possesses a "polished passing skill set that translates well to the NFL," so it shouldn't take long for the signal-caller to transform the Raiders into a contender.

The team has other holes to address this offseason, but a blue-chip passer would unquestionably elevate this group in a way no other prospect could come close to achieving.

Worst Case: Settling for Jordyn Tyson

The Raiders must avoid taking yet another high-profile wideout early in the draft. The club has long been enamored with pass-catching prospects, evidenced by utilizing three of its last seven top-12 picks on receivers.

Only one of those—Amari Cooper in 2015—had a modicum of success with the organization.

While the allure of landing Jordyn Tyson (the top WR and third-best player overall on the B/R Scouting Department's board) will be strong if the top quarterbacks are gone before Vegas gets on the clock, the team must go another direction.

As great a pro as Tyson projects to become, his talents would be largely wasted on a Raiders team that lacks talent under center and in the offensive trenches. Smith, a Pro Bowler in two of the previous three seasons, has struggled to find his footing in Sin City and isn't likely to improve if he sticks around for 2026 and beyond.  

If the Raiders win a few games down the stretch and put themselves out of contention for Mendoza (or Dante Moore, another potential top-five pick who rates highly on the B/R Scouting Department's big board), they would be far better off paying the high costs of trading up rather than settling for a pass-catcher.

New York Jets

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New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn

Record: 2-7

Current Draft Slot: No. 5

The Jets had high hopes of making a quick turnaround under the new Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey-led regime, but those quickly evaporated before the calendar even flipped to November.

With the team becoming sellers at the trade deadline and loading up on picks, it will now need to hit the 2026 NFL draft out of the park to have a shot at contending next year.

Best Case: Drafting Fernando Mendoza

Justin Fields hasn't lived up to the two-year, $40 million contract he signed with New York this offseason.

While the first-round pick-turned-journeyman showed potential during a six-game stint as the Pittsburgh Steelers' starter last year, he has largely regressed in 2025 and clearly isn't the solution to Gang Green's longstanding quarterback woes.

With the Jets ranking bottom-eight in both total and scoring offense and dead-last in passing, it's hard to imagine Fields will stick around beyond this season.

Replacing him with a prospect who possesses a far better arm and pocket presence in Mendoza would open the door for drastic improvement in the Big Apple.

Parson commended Mendoza's ability to "stand firm in the pocket against zero-pressure looks and delivering strikes with a free runner in his face" and said his "willingness to make throws under heavy pressure" gives him great potential to become a franchise quarterback in the NFL.

Worst Case: Drafting Jeremiyah Love

If the Jets can't land Mendoza at No. 1 overall and fall past the top-five range where Dante Moore is likely to come off the board, they'll need to avoid making the short-sighted decision of drafting a running back.

As great as Love has been during his collegiate career—the top back and No. 7 overall prospect on the B/R Scouting Department's board has tallied an impressive 2,113 yards and 30 touchdowns on 317 carries since the start of the 2024 campaign—the Notre Dame product won't be able to fix this broken offense.

While Love could pay dividends as a potential top-10 pick for certain clubs, the Jets have too many other pressing issues to address before they can even think about the backfield.

When factoring in the regression that 2022 second-rounder Breece Hall has experienced in recent years and the inability of other recent top-10 backs such as Bijan Robinson and Ashton Jeanty to get their respective squads into contention early in their careers, it's clear this should be a stay-away situation for the Jets.

Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/David Richard

Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry

Record: 2-7

Current Draft Slot: No. 4

The Browns created an unnecessary circus out of their quarterback competition this offseason, bringing in a slew of veterans and rookies to compete for the starting job.

While general manager Andrew Berry already moved on from both Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett by trading them, rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders are still hoping to develop into franchise cornerstones.

They will likely face some stiff competition if Cleveland ends up with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since taking Baker Mayfield in 2018.

Best Case: Drafting Fernando Mendoza

Even after utilizing a pair of picks on the quarterback position last year, Cleveland shouldn't hesitate to snap up Mendoza if it ends up with the top choice in 2026.

The Indiana product would immediately emerge as the favorite to not only win the starting job as a rookie but also hold it down for the foreseeable future.

While no Browns passer has managed to remain a starter for more than four seasons since Bernie Kosar (1985-93) was running the offense, Mendoza would have an opportunity to change the long-suffering franchise's fortunes.

Parson placed him as the B/R Scouting Department's No. 1 QB for a litany of reasons, including his "high football IQ and quick post-snap processing" that allows him to "read coverages well, identify vulnerabilities based on the play call, and take advantage of them."

That rare talent will allow Mendoza to overcome any athletic limitations and mobility concerns. He's as close to a sure thing as one will be able to find in the upcoming draft, making him a perfect pick for a Browns squad that can't afford to whiff.

Worst Case: Reaching for Ty Simpson

Cleveland has a history of questionable draft-day decisions, including some major reaches for prospects other teams were openly avoiding.

The worst of these was arguably when the organization wasted the No. 22 overall pick on Johnny Manziel, the polarizing Heisman winner who appeared in just 14 games before busting out of the league.

While Simpson may not be a Manziel-like bust and could even have a fantastic NFL career, the Browns would be wise to avoid reaching for him if they aren't able to land Mendoza or Dante Moore—the two signal-callers projected to be top-five picks in 2026.

Simpson rates as the third-best QB on the B/R Scouting Department's big board, but only comes in at No. 19 overall. Taking him with a top-10 pick would be a stretch, as his game isn't nearly as polished as Mendoza's and his body of work is lacking despite spending four seasons at Alabama.

There's too much risk involved in taking Simpson after one season as Alabama's starter. It's the type of pick a more stable organization could take a chance on and succeed, but not one a tumultuous franchise like the Browns should risk making.

New York Giants

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Former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll and current general manager Joe Schoen

Record: 2-8

Current Draft Slot: No. 3

Despite suffering through one of the most miserable seasons of the franchise's storied history, the New York Giants made the controversial decision to run it back Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen in 2025.

That was a misstep, one the club attempted to start rectifying by relieving the head coach of his duties on Monday.

With the Giants now trending towards earning a top-six pick for the third year in a row and sixth time in the last eight years, the new regime will have its work cut out orchestrating a return to prominence.

Best Case: Trading Down From No. 1 Overall

For all the issues that plagued the end of the Daboll era, at least the Giants may have found a proper heir to Eli Manning in Jaxson Dart.

While his rookie season hasn't resulted in many victories, his ascendance into the starting role sparked an offense that had wilted with veteran Russell Wilson at the helm.

If the G-Men believe Dart is the long-term answer to their longstanding quarterback woes, they could command a king's ransom for their draft slot.

Although no team wants to bottom out, Big Blue would be in a perfect position to capitalize on earning their first No. 1 overall pick in over six decades. That top pick could set up this organization to contend for the foreseeable future.

Due to the potential to earn multiple first-rounders and other premium picks that the new regime can retool the roster with, New York will need to think long and hard before standing pat at the top of the 2026 draft.

The team could still end up filling positions of need with top-tier prospects like wideout Jordyn Tyson and offensive lineman Spencer Fano while collecting a slew of additional capital for its trouble.

Worst Case: Falling Outside the Top Two

If the Giants are going to trade down for a franchise-altering haul of picks and players, they need to hope their draft slot is at or close to the top of the order.

Without the leverage of being able guarantee their trade partner will land a potential superstar quarterback in Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore, there won't be nearly as impressive of a return.

The Bears were the most recent team to trade down from No. 1 overall, doing so in 2023 in exchange for Carolina's Nos. 9 and 61 overall picks that year and future selections that ultimately became the No. 1 pick in 2024 and No. 39 pick in 2025 in addition to veteran wideout D.J. Moore.

The move was a success, as Chicago is off to a 6-3 start this season—most recently coming back to beat the Giants in Week 10—and looking like a playoff contender just two years after hitting rock bottom.

If New York continues its downward spiral and gets the top pick, it will have the luxury to orchestrate a similar deal. If the Giants punch up down the stretch and win some games, they'll likely have to settle for a minor trade or making a pick that won't move the needle nearly as much as a blockbuster deal for the Nos. 1 or 2 slot could.

New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Erin Hooley

New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore

Record: 2-8

Current Draft Slot: No. 2

The Saints were blindsided by the sudden retirement of incumbent starting QB Derek Carr this offseason, a decision that marred new head coach Kellen Moore's debut campaign.

The team struggled with Spencer Rattler at the helm and has had mixed results since rookie Tyler Shough took the reins a few weeks ago, opening the door for the franchise to dip back into the well and make a run at a high-end QB prospect in the 2026 draft.

Best Case: Drafting Fernando Mendoza

Crashing out and ending up with Mendoza is unsurprisingly the best path forward for Moore's side. While the first-time head coach can't be pleased with how New Orleans has fared this season, ending up with a handpicked elite prospect to run his system should be an amenable outcome.

Getting Mendoza in place could instantly elevate the Saints back into contention, especially in a weak NFC South that has been wide open for several years.

The former Cal signal-caller is a strong bet to have a transformative effect on an organization that hasn't found a way to reliably compete since Drew Brees' hung up his cleats after the 2020 campaign.

Although the cash-strapped Saints have a slew of holes to address in the offseason, trading out from the No. 1 overall slot would be a foolish move.

It's not something New Orleans would likely entertain, either, as Mendoza will be too alluring for a team now being led by a former NFL signal-caller—one who is known for getting the most out of the position during his tenure as an offensive coordinator.

Worst Case: Missing Out on Top Quarterbacks

The Saints haven't been as bad as their record indicates despite a lack of firepower under center. While the team only notched its second win of 2025 last week, three of New Orleans' eight losses came by one score or less.

A handful of plays going differently in those contests could have been the difference from this squad trending towards a top-two pick and a draft slot closer to the middle of the pack.

There's a chance the Saints come out of their Week 11 bye and rip off some victories against the lowly foes they are set to face. Winnable meetings with the Dolphins, Panthers, Jets and Titans are still on the docket, meaning New Orleans could put itself out of contention not just for Mendoza but also for Dante Moore and Ty Simpson.

With only three quarterbacks to be found in the top 32 of the B/R Scouting Department's most recent big board, a winning streak could leave the Saints in a tough position. They'll have to weigh reaching for Garrett Nussmeier or Taylen Green—respectively the Nos. 33 and 38 prospects—or hoping at least one of that pair (or someone like No. 55 overall prospect Carson Beck) falls to them on Day 2.

Given the Saints' lack of consistent success with 2025 second-rounder Shough and 2024 Day 3 pick Rattler, the team would be far better off taking a surer shot early in the first round.

Tennessee Titans

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Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward

Record: 1-8

Current Draft Slot: No. 1

The Titans were hoping their selection of Cam Ward atop the 2025 draft would expedite their rebuild. That hasn't been the case, though, and the organization is now well on its way towards becoming the first to earn back-to-back No. 1 overall picks since the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021-22.

Despite his early woes, it's too soon to declare Ward a bust—opening the door for Tennessee to orchestrate a megatrade ahead of the 2026 draft.

Best Case: Trading Down From No. 1 Overall

Ward may not have opened his NFL career on a high note after a stellar run at Washington State and Miami, but he's still a promising prospect who has shown flashes of the talent that made him the top pick this year.

Even though he's completed 57.6 percent of his throws and has just five touchdowns against six interceptions with a league-worst 38 sacks taken, the Titans can't give up on him and shouldn't hesitate to move off the No. 1 pick due to their belief in him.

With several franchises sure to start sniffing around for the top pick as a potential solution to their quarterback problem, Tennessee can benefit from this trying campaign by becoming the 14th team to move down No. 1 in the Super Bowl era.

The Titans were actually the second-to-last team to deal the top selection, doing so in 2016 when they flipped it to the then-St. Louis Rams (who took Jared Goff) in exchange for multiple Day 1 and 2 picks.

The players Tennessee drafted with the returns included Derrick Henry, Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith, all of whom played significant roles during the club's string of four playoff appearances between 2017-21.

If the Titans can unearth that caliber of talent again after trading down from No. 1 overall in 2026, they'll be well-positioned to support Ward and find future success.

Worst Case: Drafting Rueben Bain Jr.

If the Titans continue to slump and end up with the No. 1 overall pick but opt not to trade down, Bain would be the obvious choice for the club.

The Miami edge-rusher has been a stalwart for the Hurricanes defense for the last three seasons, racking up 98 tackles (24 for a loss) and 14 sacks in 31 games.

He is the second-highest-rated player on the B/R Scouting Department's big board, with his 8.7 grade ranking behind only Ohio State safety Caleb Downs.

B/R scout Matt Holder said Bain possesses an NFL-ready body with plenty of quickness and impressive movement skills for his size. He noted the edge-rusher is strong at the point of attack and has the ability to shed blocks and make tackles at the line, while also being able to collapse the pocket and bring pressure with both speed and power.

As great as Bain could be, he does lack explosion and consistency. He's a top talent, but not quite a generational prospect who could carry a defense for the next decade-plus.

Rather than go all-in with the Miami product, Tennessee would benefit far more from bringing aboard a plethora of prospects acquired from a trade down.