Yankees, Mets Face Difficult Trade Decisions in Balancing Present vs. Future

The year is 2015, but in New York, it's feeling more like 2006 or 2007. For the first time since then, both the Yankees and Mets have a real shot at playing baseball in October.

To get there, however, the Yankees and Mets may first have to make some moves ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. And on that front, both are dealing with the ol' Present vs. Future conundrum: They could go for it now, but doing so could compromise their capacity to go for it later.

But first, the basic facts.

In the Bronx, the Yankees have a comfortable lead atop the AL East at 51-41. That's a better position than many expected them to be in at any point in 2015, and they're in it mainly because both a lineup and a starting rotation that looked volatile coming into the year have held strong.

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Meanwhile in Queens, the Mets' 49-45 record puts them just two games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East. Washington's terrible luck with injuries is partially responsible for that, but there's also how the Mets have gotten all they could have asked for from their talented young pitchers.

But while the Yankees and Mets find themselves in better positions than they were expected to be in, another thing they have in common is the requirement of upgrades.

The Yankees rotation may be surviving, but it's still struggling to shake its "volatile" label. It could use a solid starter who could bring a sense of calm. It also wouldn't hurt for the Yankees to find an upgrade at second base, where they've suffered through nearly four months of yuck.

As for the Mets, their problem is the National League's worst offense. They could use a bat. Or two. Or three. Or a literal hitting machine.

Can the Yankees and Mets make these upgrades? If they want to, sure.

Whether they should want to, though, is as good a question as this trade deadline has to offer.

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Between the two New York clubs, it's easier to imagine what grand things the Yankees could do if they fulfill their deadline needs. They'd become a reasonably complete team, giving them an excellent shot at wrapping up the AL East and a valid shot at making it to the Fall Classic.

The question the Yankees are apparently struggling with now, though, is this one: At what cost?

Though the trade rumor mill has connected the Yankees to all sorts of possible fixes—Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, Ben Zobrist and so on—the man in charge has warned the Yankees faithful not to get their hopes up.

“I would predict [it's] more likely [we're] not doing anything than doing something significant,” general manager Brian Cashman told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

Granted, this could be a classic bit of trade-deadline posturing. But in elaborating on his stance, Cashman sounded more like a sensible man than a posturing man.

“I like our club," he said. "I recognize there are certain areas that could be improved, but the reality of improving could be difficult. The acquisition costs might be prohibitive or that unicorn may not exist."

That last sentence is the key part, as it points toward the inconvenient reality of the summer trade market. With so many contenders out there, it figures to be a seller's market. As such, prices for the players the Yankees have been linked to figure to be especially high.

Specifically, what sellers will be demanding is young talent. To meet that demand, the Yankees may have to liquidate an asset that's gaining in value.

A couple of years ago, Yankees principal owner Hal Steinbrenner looked at his club's farm system and saw a wasteland that even T.S. Eliot couldn't put into words. So, as any smart owner would have done, he made rebuilding the club's farm system a point of emphasis.

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Two years later, it's looking like mission accomplished. George A. King III of the New York Post highlighted Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez as a quartet of prospects that's widely well-regarded, and the Post's Joel Sherman heard glowing words from one scout.

“Their system is a lot better," the scout said. "Dramatically better. They have come a long way in the last year.”

With the Yankees' farm system finally looking in good shape, the organization can at last look forward to developing its own young stars rather than continue to acquire other teams' older stars. As the Yankees of the 1990s and early 2000s can vouch, that's a great way to craft a perennial contender.

And this is where we come to the part that likely has Cashman squirming.

If the Yankees were to dip into their farm system to make some additions to this year's club, the organization's vision of champion built on the backs of homegrown stars would go back to being a pie-in-the-sky fantasy. And considering the circumstances, that just may not be worth it.

For one, the players the Yankees would be adding would most likely be mere rentals for the final two months of the season. For two, they would be joining a roster that's older on average than any other roster in the big leagues.

Therefore, breaking up the farm system would pretty much be in service of a last hurrah. If the final result were to be a World Series championship, the Yankees wouldn't regret it. But if the final result is anything short of a championship, the regret would come fast and furious.

The Yankees would be looking at an immediate future consisting of an old major league roster and a diminished collection of talented prospects. They'd basically be in the same boat the Philadelphia Phillies have put themselves in, a possibility Sherman writes the Yankees are very wary of.

But even with all this being said, the possibility of the Yankees saying, "Oh, the hell with it!" and going for it at the trade deadline can't be ruled out.

As proud as the Yankees are of the work they've done with their farm system, they could decide it's foolish to wait on a brighter tomorrow while they have a bright today on their hands. They also have their fanbase to consider. Yankees fans demand winning baseball unlike any other fanbase, and the club is arguably obligated to go all-in on winning after two straight October-less seasons.

In all, the Yankees have some tough calls to make in the coming days. And though they're in a slightly different situation, their crosstown rivals should be able to sympathize.

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Way back when, we said the Mets could use a bat or several to pick up their sagging offense.

Well, maybe you noticed at the time, but that was an understatement. It's more accurate to say the Mets are going to be screwed and/or doomed if they don't boost their offense for the stretch run.

According to some rumors, the Mets get it. Those would be the rumors, coming notably from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, that they're aiming high and targeting the likes of Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez.

But rumors such as these may not accurately reflect how Mets GM Sandy Alderson is approaching things. You can take it from Marc Carig of Newsday:

In a full report, Carig correctly notes targets like Upton and Gomez "could command bigger prospect returns, and the Mets have shown little appetite for those kinds of deals." That's a sentiment that echoes what Andy Martino of the New York Daily News said in a recent radio interview (h/t MLB Trade Rumors), as he noted that, in general, Alderson is loathe to part with top prospects.

It's at this point we'll once again acknowledge the possibility of posturing, which is a realistic possibility given that it wasn't long ago Alderson was saying he was prepared to overpay for a hitter.

But it's at least as believable, if not more so, that the Mets are indeed prepared to be that protective of their top prospects.

The main difference between the Yankees and Mets is the Mets look like a team that's flirting with a rise to power rather than an old power flirting with a last hurrah. The Mets are where they are mainly because of youngsters like Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia, as well as a sort of young-ish guy in Lucas Duda. That's a good core, and it could look even better if Juan Lagares gets his act together and Travis d'Arnaud returns strong from his elbow injury.

Coming off six straight losing seasons, this is a good look for the Mets. Making it look even better, though, is the fact that the farm system that has produced all these guys still has some prizes left in it.

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Those include hard-throwing lefty Steven Matz, who has already debuted in the majors, and a trio of top-100 prospects (according to MLB.com, anyway) in outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto and shortstop Amed Rosario.

The presence of these guys, however, puts the Mets in the same sort of awkward situation that the Yankees are in with their young guys.

More than likely, teams would need to get one or several of the Mets' top prospects for them to satisfy their need for offense. And if the Mets were to go that route, they'll have effectively ditched the idea of a future homegrown dynasty in hopes of riding a hodgepodge of talent to success in the short term.

Which, given where the Mets are in the standings, would be beyond risky.

Whereas the Yankees would be making moves to try to seal the deal on the division title, the Mets would be making moves to try to chase one down. If the pursuit were to fail, the Mets would have to settle for a wild-card berth and an anything-goes one-game playoff. Or worse, nothing.

They'd thus be flirting with a high probability of failure. Given the Mets have their bright future to fall back on, they need not pursue that flirtation at all.

Or do they?

Given how deathly afraid of being adventurous the Mets have been in recent years, them playing it safe at the deadline would be all too typical. And if they were to uphold their reputation, a Mets fanbase that's already jaded wouldn't be happy. Surely some would sympathize with the club's big-picture goals, but others would stand and accuse the Mets of wasting the organization's best shot at relevance in years. I believe the punishment for that is the Boo Box.

So, that's it. That's the conundrum the Yankees and Mets are facing. They can please the fans by sacrificing their top prospects to make needed upgrades, or they can ask their fans to trust them by keeping their best prospects and hoping everything works out.

That's not what I'd call an enviable task, as Cashman and Alderson will be going out on a limb no matter what they decide. They're either going to try to turn years of hard work into immediate satisfaction, or commit to benefiting from said years of hard work later.

Either way, there's only one thing to say to both of them: Good luck, fellas.

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