Ranking 10 NHL Teams Most Likely to Secure the Top Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery

The NHL's annual draft lottery is usually held in early May. It involves the 16 teams that didn't qualify for the playoffs to determine which club will win the first overall selection.

The lottery is weighted to give the team with the lowest number of points the best odds of winning.

Those odds favored the New York Islanders in 2025. They used the No. 1 pick to select defenseman Matthew Schaefer. Currently, he leads this season's NHL rookie class with seven points in six games.

The prize in the 2026 draft lottery is Penn State University winger Gavin McKenna. NHL.com's Adam Kimelman reported scouts believe the 17-year-old to be a generational talent. He is considered the favorite to be chosen first in next year's draft.

Every NHL club would love to have a player like McKenna on its roster. However, only a handful will have the best odds of doing so next year.

It's still early in this NHL season, and there's no certainty which teams will end up becoming a "lottery team." However, we're examining 10 teams that could fall into that category and ranking them to determine which one is the most likely to secure the 2026 first overall pick.

10. Pittsburgh Penguins

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Once a league powerhouse, the Pittsburgh Penguins have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, sinking from 91 points in 2022-23 to 80 points in 2024-25.

General manager Kyle Dubas isn't publicly saying he's rebuilding the roster, but all his moves indicate that's exactly what he's doing.

Dubas attempted to boost the Penguins' playoff chances during his first season as GM, most notably by acquiring puck-moving defenseman Erik Karlsson. However, by the 2024 trade deadline, he began to rebuild by trading long-time scoring winger Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Since then, Dubas has been among the busiest executives in the trade market. His notable moves included shipping out Marcus Pettersson, Anthony Beauvillier, and Alex Nedeljkovic, while also acquiring Artūrs Šilovs, Matt Dumba, Connor Clifton, and Rutger McGroarty.

Most of Dubas' moves have been made primarily to stockpile draft picks and promising young players. It's left the Penguins with an aging roster centered around team captain Sidney Crosby, center Evgeni Malkin, and defenseman Kris Letang.

The Penguins have had a surprisingly strong start with 10 points in their first seven games. However, their performances over the last three seasons suggest they could cool off as this season progresses.

If so, Dubas could trade more veterans for young players, which could put them into draft lottery territory.

9. Seattle Kraken

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After missing the playoffs last season for the third time in their four-year history, the Seattle Kraken made significant offseason changes.

Jason Botterill replaced Ron Francis as general manager as the latter was moved to president of hockey operations, and Lane Lambert took over from Dan Bylsma as head coach.

Several roster changes were also made, such as the acquisitions of forwards Mason Marchment and Frederick Gaudreau, and the signing of veteran defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Nevertheless, the bulk of this club remains mostly the same group that struggled over the past two seasons.

The Kraken are off to a promising start to this season, but it's too early to say this signifies a team that will become a postseason contender. Given their recent history, though, they could again end up near the bottom of the overall standings.

One reason is the Kraken lack a game-breaking superstar forward to power their offense. They have some promising players in Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Kaapo Kakko, who could step up and bolster their playoff chances. However, they were 22nd in goals per game (2.71) after their first seven games.

The Kraken also have veterans such as Marchment, Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak eligible for unrestricted free agent status next summer. They could all hit the trade block by the March deadline if the Kraken are out of contention, which could improve the club's draft lottery chances.

8. New York Islanders

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The New York Islanders have moved away from the Lou Lamoriello era, hiring Mathieu Darche on May 23 to replace their former general manager.

They also won the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, and their selection of gifted defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the first overall pick has paid early dividends.

After dropping their first three games, the Islanders rebounded by winning their next three. However, it's too early to assume they're a playoff contender. They could become sellers if they're out of contention by midseason, which could improve their chances of winning the lottery for the second straight year.

The Islanders' current roster remains a Lamoriello creation, with aging veterans and few promising youngsters besides Schaefer. If they become sellers, Darche could peddle pending free agents such as Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

Darche might not stop at shopping his UFA-eligible players. If ownership is on board with a full rebuild, he could get the green light to put players such as Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, and possibly Mathew Barzal on the trade block, provided they're willing to waive their no-trade clauses.

Despite their current place in the standings, the Islanders have the fourth-highest goals per game (3.67), their penalty-killing percentage (73.7) is among the bottom third, and they've given up the seventh-most shots against per game (30.7).

If those poor defensive numbers persist, they will likely be among this season's lottery clubs.

7. Buffalo Sabres

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Entering this season, the Buffalo Sabres were hoping to end their league-record 14-season playoff drought.

Based on their inconsistent start (three wins in their first seven games) and their regression since their 91-point performance in 2022-23, they could be among the clubs in draft lottery contention by season's end.

The Sabres have done fairly well selecting players since the 2015 draft. They landed two superstars in center Jack Eichel (2015), and defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (2018). They've also selected current roster players such as Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and Mattias Samuelsson.

Eichel was traded away in 2021, with Alex Tuch part of the return. They also swapped Casey Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram, Dylan Cozens for Josh Norris, and JJ Peterka for Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan.

The main problem for the Sabres is that they've gone through seven head coaches and four general managers since their last postseason appearance in 2012. That constant upheaval wrought by changing management goals and coaching systems has made it difficult for the players to gel as a team.

Current general manager Kevyn Adams and head coach Lindy Ruff could lose their jobs at some point during this season if this club remains outside the playoff picture. That could also lead to some roster changes by the March trade deadline, further assuring their spot as a lottery team.

6. Philadelphia Flyers

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The Philadelphia Flyers enter 2025-26 having missed the playoffs in each of the last five seasons. Despite opening this season with seven points in their first six games, they are likely to finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.

General manager Daniel Brière hasn't wasted time shaking things up since taking over late in the 2023-24 season. On May 14, he replaced former Jack Adams Award winner John Tortorella as head coach with 2023-24 Adams Award winner Rick Tocchet.

In the 2023 NHL Draft, Brière landed a potential franchise player in winger Matvei Michkov with the seventh-overall pick. He also got a promising power forward in prospect Porter Martone sixth overall in the 2025 draft.

Brière has also been busy in the trade market. In January 2024, he shipped winger Cutter Gauthier to the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Jamie Drysdale. He made another swap with the Ducks in June 2025, sending center Ryan Poehling to Anaheim for center (and 2019 first-rounder) Trevor Zegras.

The Flyers also added a veteran backup in Daniel Vladar, but they still need an experienced starting goalie. Meanwhile, their lack of depth at center and among their bottom-three defense remain areas of concern that could hamper their efforts to improve.

5. Boston Bruins

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After eight straight postseason appearances, the Boston Bruins missed the playoffs last season. Management hoped for a bounce-back performance entering this year, acquiring veterans such as Viktor Arvidsson, Tanner Jeannot, Michael Eyssimont, and Sean Kuraly through trades and free agency.

The Bruins got off to a promising start with three straight wins, but they have since dropped five straight and tumbled down the Eastern Conference standings. That suggests their roster issues run deeper than a lack of experienced checking-line depth.

Offense has been Boston's Achilles heel. Despite the presence of winger David Pastrňák, veteran center Elias Lindholm, and puck-moving defenseman Charlie McAvoy, the Bruins are middle of the pack with a 3.00 goals per game, while their 16.7 power-play percentage is among the bottom third.

Part of the problem is the Bruins are spending more time on defense than on generating scoring chances. Like their power-play percentage, their shot-attempt percentage (47.0) is among the bottom third.

They could turn things around as they continue to adjust to the system of new head coach Marco Sturm. If they don't, the next move could be another coaching change, followed by a roster overhaul in the New Year, which could put them in position for a shot at winning the draft lottery again.

4. Nashville Predators

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The Nashville Predators are another veteran-laden team hoping to rebound from a poor 2024-25 season. After seven games, though, they find themselves near the bottom of the Western Conference standings with just two wins and six points.

Despite carrying proven offensive stars such as Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault, and Ryan O'Reilly, the Predators' offensive woes from last season continue. Their 2.43 goals per game average was the league's fourth-lowest as of Oct. 23.

Their production with the man advantage has also suffered. Last season, the Predators were 18th overall in power-play percentage (21.9). This season, they're a league-worst 8.3 percent.

The Predators are also among the bottom third in goals against per game (3.43) and shots against per game (29.9). Goaltender Juuse Saros' stats are slightly better than last season's, but his performance remains inconsistent.

It seems little has changed for the Predators since last season, when they finished with the third-fewest points (68) and wound up with the No. 5 pick following the draft lottery. If things remain the same, they'll be in a good position for another chance at winning the lottery.

3. Chicago Blackhawks

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Under Kyle Davidson, Chicago has been rebuilding its roster with a focus on talented young players. Since he took over as general manager in 2022, he has restocked with prospects from within their pipeline, augmented by veterans acquired through trades and free agency.

Chicago struck gold in 2023 by winning the draft lottery, selecting center and franchise player Connor Bedard. Last season saw 2022 first-rounder Frank Nazar blossom into a star in his own right. They also have promising defensemen San Rinzel (2022 draft) and Artyom Levshunov (2024) on their roster.

Fitzgerald has tried to surround his promising youngsters with experienced talent. He's brought in goalie Spencer Knight, defenseman Matt Grzelcyk, and forwards Nick Foligno, Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and Andre Burakovsky.

Having reached a post-expansion era low of 52 points in 2023-24, Chicago showed some promise last season with a 61-point performance. It's off to a good start to this season with eight points in its first seven games, but it's too early to tell if this is an indication its days as a lottery team are over.

The Blackhawks still have to adjust to the system imposed by Jeff Blashill, their fourth head coach since 2022. Knight should improve their goaltending, but he will see a heavy workload behind their young defense corps. They will likely be among the draft lottery clubs again with a shot at winning another No. 1 overall pick.

2. Calgary Flames

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After missing a wild-card berth by a whisker last season, the Calgary Flames entered this season hoping to continue to exceed expectations by building on that performance. Instead, they're off to a poor start, dropping seven of the first eight games and are at the bottom of the overall standings.

Part of the reason is the play of Dustin Wolf. The 23-year-old goaltender was a finalist for the Calder Memorial Trophy last season, but he is struggling early in his sophomore campaign, winning only one of his first seven starts while his stats languish near the bottom of the league.

Wolf hasn't been getting much goal support from his teammates. The Flames sit at the bottom of the league with an anemic 1.50 goals per game average and a power-play percentage (12.5) ranking fifth-worst. They're also struggling in the faceoff circle, with a win percentage (48.0) in the bottom third.

The early absence of playmaking winger Jonathan Huberdeau to injury contributed to those woeful offensive stats. However, veterans Nazem Kadri, Matt Coronato, and MacKenzie Weegar are having difficulty scoring, while Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee, and Conor Zary are also struggling to find the back of the net.

Entering this season, the Flames were retooling rather than rebuilding. Unless they reverse their current skid, management could decide it's time to put more focus on building around their younger players. That could lead to some of those veterans hitting the trade block, locking in the Flames as a lottery club.

1. San Jose Sharks

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Since Mike Grier took over as general manager in July 2022, the San Jose Sharks have torn down their roster and are rebuilding primarily with promising young talent from within their system. They won the 2024 draft lottery, selecting center Macklin Celebrini first overall in the draft.

Those youngsters also include first-rounders such as defenseman Sam Dickinson (2024 draft), forward Will Smith (2023), and forward William Eklund (2021). Michael Misa, their 2025 first-rounder (second overall), made his NHL debut on Oct. 14.

Grier also traded for promising goalie Yaroslav Askarov in August 2024. In addition, he brought in a solid supporting cast of veterans, including goalie Alex Nedeljkovic, defensemen Dmitry Orlov and Nick Leddy, and forwards Tyler Toffoli, Alex Wennberg, Jeff Skinner, and Barclay Goodrow.

After hitting rock bottom in 2023-24 with 47 points, the Sharks showed some promise in their 52-point performance the following year. As their young players develop and improve, the team should rise higher in the standings.

Nevertheless, the Sharks are off to a rough start this season, sitting at the foot of the standings with just two points in their first six games. They still have a way to go before they become reliable playoff contenders, which makes them the most likely to win the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Stats, standings, and historical info (as of Oct. 23, 2025) via NHL.com. Additional info via HockeyDB.