Is This the Most Parity the NFL Has Ever Seen?

The first seven weeks of the 2025 NFL season have been thrilling. While not every game has come down to the wire or entered overtime, it's felt like most have been ripe for a tight finish.

One could argue we're finally seeing the NFL parity that has long been promised. The upsets haven't seemed all that surprising through seven weeks, and neither conference has seen a truly dominant team emerge.

The league also saw its last undefeated team fall two whole weeks ago.

Is this season's early parade of competitive games the product of the NFL's longstanding quest for parity or the result of something else entirely?

To answer that question, we've gone through records, stats and reports dating back to 2002—the year the Houston Texans began play, bringing the NFL to its current 32-team format—to see how this season compares.

What Does Parity in the NFL Mean Anyway?

AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell

The NFL strives for parity among its teams, meaning that in an ideal world, the talent gap between the top contenders and the basement dwellers would be as small as possible.

The league doesn't want to see every team hover around .500, of course, but games and playoff races are more intriguing when it feels like every team has a realistic chance.

The general perception has long been that only a select few teams are true contenders. History supports this viewpoint, and unsurprisingly, top quarterbacks play a significant role.

Consider that between 2001 and 2019, the New England Patriots won a whopping 17 AFC East titles. With Tom Brady at the helm, those Patriots teams felt virtually unstoppable during the regular season, leaving the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets with only a sliver of hope.

The Indianapolis Colts went on a run with Peyton Manning that included seven AFC South titles in an eight-year span. The Kansas City Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West titles, and since Patrick Mahomes became a full-time starter in 2018, they haven't missed an AFC Championship Game.

NFL fans are accustomed to seeing the same teams dominate for years at a time. While it's fun for casual fans to watch a dynasty unfold, it can leave specific fanbases disinterested in the overall product.

The Las Vegas Raiders, for example, haven't won a division title since 2002. The Cleveland Browns haven't won a division title and have notched just a single playoff win since reentering the league as an expansion team in 1999. Do you think Raiders and Browns fans ever really enter a season thinking it's going to be their year?

One argument against 2025 parity can be rooted in the fact that the league's bad teams are really bad.

Before the 1-5 Cleveland Browns faced the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, for example, Cleveland was averaging just 13.6 points per game. The Tennessee Titans are currently averaging 13.7 points per game. Both figures are well below the league average of any season since 2002—with 2005's 20.6 PPG serving as the low-water mark. NFL teams haven't averaged under 20 points per game since 1993.

The Browns just routed the Dolphins 31-6, showing there's even a gap between the bad teams and the true basement-dwellers this season.

Now, the Detroit Lions were long mired in the cycle of hopelessness, but they've turned things around in a big way over the last few seasons. They can serve as a beacon of hope for other downtrodden franchises, but the Lions didn't suddenly emerge because of parity.

Detroit is now successful because it hit on the trifecta of a high-end quarterback, a competent head coach and smart roster building. It is not a title contender because schedule-making, the salary cap and the draft are meant to help give bad teams a boost—though they are.

But Teams Aren't Pulling Away, and None are Undefeated

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is sacked by Raiders LB Jamal Adams on Oct. 19

Several teams that have traditionally struggled are still poor, but we've seen some surprises. The New England Patriots seem to be in the middle of a significant turnaround, while the Baltimore Ravens have flopped hard.

Again, though, the fortunes of these teams aren't necessarily the result of parity. Yes, the Patriots landed quarterback Drake Maye through draft positioning, but they also added an experienced coaching staff and spent heavily in free agency this offseason. The Ravens have been undone by injuries and last year's loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.

However, fans who believe this season is exhibiting parity will point to the fact that there is no dominant team. As Douglas Clawson of CBS Sports noted ahead of Week 7, the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills entered the week as Super Bowl co-favorites with the longest odds "by the Super Bowl favorite this late into a season in 15 years, since Week 13 in 2010 when the Falcons and Patriots were co-favorites."

But, the '72 Miami Dolphins popped their champagne after Week 5. That's remarkably early in the season for a league that typically features powerhouses, right?

Well, not exactly. That aforementioned 2010 season saw the last undefeated teams fall in Week 4. The last undefeated teams were also handed losses in Week 4 in 2014.

While the 2007 Patriots did go undefeated in the regular season, undefeated teams typically don't exist late in the season. Since 2002, only 11 seasons have featured an undefeated team with more than eight wins.

Great teams don't have to be undefeated, of course, and it feels like we have few of them in 2025. After seven weeks, nine teams are sitting on five wins. That might feel low for a 32-team league, but it isn't.

Last year, nine teams had five or more wins after Week 7. Seven teams had that many in 2023, five in 2022 and seven in 2021. In 2020, 12 teams emerged from Week 7 with five or more wins. Back in 2010, there were seven.

After the 32-team format first went into effect in 2002, six teams had five wins after seven weeks.

So, we're not exactly looking at a league full of three- and four-win teams after seven weeks—and the good teams are distancing themselves from those with little playoff hope.

Ten teams have two or fewer wins, which means nearly a third of the league could be considered bad.

So, Have We Seen a Season Like This One?

AP Photo/Doug Benc

Nick Foles catches a TD pass in Super Bowl LII on Feb. 4, 2018.

We're used to seeing at least a few dominant teams every year, and we really haven't in 2025. While that's unusual, it's not unprecedented.

The 2010 season, for example, didn't have any clear favorites, even late in the year. The 2017 season had a similar aura—Kevin Clark wrote the following for The Ringer in mid-October of that season:

"This is the parity the NFL talks about but usually doesn't have. The 2017 season, thus far, has been defined by widespread mediocrity. No one is perfect, no one is even great, and it may stay that way. Could it just be a blip and might we be watching the same old faces come January? Sure, but what's more likely is that a number of on- and off-field factors have converged to push and pull more teams toward the middle."

That statement sure feels like one that could describe the current campaign, and that was a very similar season. The Chiefs were the last undefeated team at 5-0, and they were one of only six teams with five or more wins through seven weeks.

What's noteworthy is that in both 2010 and 2017, we saw a perennial powerhouse reach the Super Bowl. In 2010, the Pittsburgh Steelers made their second title game in three seasons. In 2017, the Patriots were back in the big game for the second straight year.

While neither the 2010 Steelers nor the 2017 Patriots appeared particularly dominant early in the year, both made it deep into the postseason. This suggests teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Lions and Eagles can still emerge despite some early struggles.

It's also worth noting, though, that both the 2010 Steelers and the 2017 Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

In 2010, Aaron Rodgers was in his third season as a full-time starter and helped spark the Packers on an incredible run. In 2017, the Eagles came out of pretty much nowhere to win it all.

Those Eagles had second-year quarterback Carson Wentz playing at an MVP level but lost him to a season-ending knee injury late in the year. Thanks to the surprisingly great play of backup Nick Foles, Philly won a championship anyway.

More than any perceived parity, it's runs like these that should inspire hope among the fans of struggling teams.

No, teams like the Browns or the Tennessee Titans aren't about to suddenly surge and enter the 2025 playoff race. Bad franchises are going to remain bad, even if the NFL tries to provide a helping hand.

However, a team with a young, ascending quarterback like New England or one with an effective injury replacement, like Cincinnati, can dream.

But Things Do Feel Different

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Bills QB Josh Allen

Based on records and performances alone, 2025 isn't shaping up to be as much of an outlier as some might believe. However, there's no denying things have felt a little different this season.

We've seen quite a few upsets, some coming in shocking fashion. In Week 3, for example, the Packers looked like the best team in football but lost to the lowly Browns. A week later, they were forced to settle for a tie with the Dallas Cowboys.

This past Thursday, the Cincinnati Bengals outlasted the division-leading Steelers with a 40-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco behind center. The veteran started for those Browns in Week 3 and was traded to Cincinnati just a couple of weeks later.

We also haven't seen teams we're used to seeing at the top thriving every week. The Buffalo Bills, for example, have won five straight AFC East titles. After consecutive losses to up-and-coming teams, they feel like anything but a lock to repeat as the division champ.

Injuries, of course, have been part of the equation for the Bills and even more so for the Ravens. Baltimore has been forced to play games without the likes of Lamar Jackson, Nnamdi Madubuike, Ronnie Stanley, Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, were without top receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy for much of the early season. Unsurprisingly, their offense had some early issues.

The Eagles have experienced some offensive hiccups, likely due to the offseason departure of coordinator Kellen Moore. Coaching changes have become a yearly occurrence in Philadelphia, though, so while the apparent lack of chemistry has commanded attention, it shouldn't be surprising.

Several teams we've come to consider perennial contenders have struggled early, but there are logical reasons for those struggles—even if leaguewide parity isn't among them.

So, What's Really Going On This Year?

AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

The short answer is no, this isn't the most parity the NFL has ever seen. The 2010 and 2017 campaigns serve as proof. However, things are more wide open than usual, which adds to the sense of parity.

And if the 2025 season has felt even more open than ever, there are reasons for that. One is the reality that the playing field probably has been more level early in the season.

As Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles recently explained, early-season sloppiness can serve as an equalizer.

"There's a lot of parity in this league right now," he said, per Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press. "Without a lot of people playing in training camp, these first five weeks are really preseason ball games as far as penalties and getting everybody on the same page and doing those types of things."

Mistakes and inefficient play have played roles in some of the upsets we've seen this season. Last Thursday, for example, the Steelers committed three more penalties than the Bengals and lost the turnover battle 0-2. In a game that was ultimately decided by two points, that's big. In the Packers' upset loss to Cleveland, Green Bay committed a whopping 14 penalties.

Coincidentally, the Steelers and Packers aren't part of the five-win club.

If, as Bowles theorized, teams have taken a month or more to get on the same page, we may see good teams limit mistakes and start to pull away over the final 11 weeks of the season.

The early schedule has probably played a role too. Possibly in an effort to spice up the Thursday night slate, the NFL scheduled five divisional games in the first six weeks of Thursday Night Football. Short-week road games against familiar opponents are always ripe for the upset, and we've seen favorites go just 2-3 in those five divisional TNF games.

Other upsets in prime time, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars' win over Kansas City in Week 5, have boosted the general perception that a lot of teams are on par with one another. As noted, though, there's a substantial gap between the league's playoff contenders and its bottom tier.

The other factor to consider is that some of the top teams are those fans didn't expect to be great. If the Chiefs and Eagles were the league's two 5-1 teams entering Week 7 instead of the Indianapolis Colts and Buccaneers, the parity discussion might be a lot quieter.

If the Bills were leading the AFC East instead of the Patriots or if the Bills were 6-1 instead of the Colts, the conversation would probably look a lot different too.

Could we see a preseason dark horse win it all in 2025? Sure. Have the close games, wild finishes and handful of tight-at-the-top divisional races made the early season unexpectedly entertaining? Absolutely. However, none of that means the NFL's bad teams are close to its good teams or that the league is even close to true parity.

In fact, the NFL may still feature even less parity than other major sports leagues; and for most fans, that's OK. It's the unpredictable, "any-given-Sunday" nature of football that makes us love it anyway.