What's the Ceiling for Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons in Wide-Open NFC?

The Atlanta Falcons received a national audience on Monday night, and for the second time this season, they put on a show in prime time. Atlanta dominated a Buffalo Bills team that many expect to be a Super Bowl contender.

The game rarely felt as close as the 24-14 final score might indicate.

With wins over the Bills, Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings—all 2024 playoff teams—the Falcons have to be taken seriously. However, they're only 3-2 and winless in the NFC South.

So, where does Atlanta fit into the NFC hierarchy? Is the Falcons' two-game winning streak a mirage, or does it provide the momentum needed to make a run in a conference without a clear best team? Let's examine Atlanta's strengths, weaknesses and competition to find an answer.

The NFC is Open

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

The Falcons would prefer to have a better record than 3-2. The good news, though, is that none of their wins felt particularly fluky. The better news is that no other team in the NFC feels like a powerhouse.

The division-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers are probably the closest thing to "favorites" in the conference. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing like an MVP candidate, and the Bucs are following his never-quit attitude quite literally. Four of Tampa's five wins have come via scores within the final minute.

Of course, winning close games late is rarely a sustainable formula. Tampa is also riddled with injuries that could eventually start impacting outcomes. And while the Buccaneers won the Week 1 meeting with Atlanta, they only avoided overtime because Younghoe Koo missed a 44-yard field goal.

Atlanta will see the Bucs again in Week 15 with a chance to even the score.

Injuries are also an issue for the San Francisco 49ers, and the recent loss of linebacker Fred Warner might be the one that breaks the 49ers. The Falcons will find out when they visit San Francisco on Sunday night.

The defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles are vulnerable. They've lost back-to-back games, their defense is a shell of what it was in 2024, and their offense lacks chemistry.

Like the Eagles and 49ers, the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams are all 4-2. They're good, but they're not clearly a tier above Atlanta. The 3-1-1 Green Bay Packers? They lost to the Cleveland Browns and, in doing so, lost their credibility as a potential juggernaut.

While the NFC is littered with playoff-caliber teams, it still feels open, and there's little reason to believe the Falcons won't wind up in the postseason.

Atlanta's Defensive Investments Are Paying Off

AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn

Falcons LBs James Pearce Jr. and Leonard Floyd celebrate after a sack on Sept. 14

Defense wins championships. Even teams that lead with their offense need to be able to get after the quarterback and make timely stops. In years past, the Falcons have struggled to do that.

However, Atlanta made a concerted effort this offseason to improve its defense, specifically, a pass rush that logged just 31 sacks in 2024. The Falcons signed Leonard Floyd before using first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.

The Falcons added safety Xavier Watts in Round 3, and he's been a fantastic addition to the secondary.

With improved coverage and a functional pass rush—the Falcons have already recorded 14 sacks—Atlanta has a chance to at least slow even elite offenses. We saw that on Monday, when the Falcons' front got after Josh Allen and forced him into several critical mistakes.

Containing Allen is one of the more difficult challenges in the NFL, but he looked pedestrian on Monday night.

Through five games, the Falcons rank first in yards allowed and seventh in points allowed. Their defense might not be truly elite, but it's the best unit we've seen in Atlanta in some time.

This improved defense is a big reason why the Falcons will have a chance to go far in the playoffs if they can get into the dance.

It Helps to Have the Best Player in Football

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Bijan Robinson

While Atlanta's defense has been impressive through the first six weeks, the Falcons can't expect to win playoff games without mustering some offense. Fortunately, they have an offensive difference-maker that head coach Raheem Morris believes is the best in the NFL.

"He's the best player in football. I've said it multiple times, I can't say it enough," Morris told reporters of running back Bijan Robinson after Monday night's win.

While Morris' comments may be hyperbolic, they're not entirely far-fetched. Robinson is one of the most gifted athletes in the league and can make defenses pay as both a runner and a receiver.

Robinson was unstoppable against the Bills, racking up 170 rushing yards, one touchdown and 68 receiving yards. So far this season, he's logged a league-best 822 scrimmage yards.

The third-year pro isn't the only offensive star the Falcons have either. They also have a top-tier receiver in Drake London and a top-tier tight end in Kyle Pitts. Having elite players at all three skill positions gives Atlanta an excellent chance to succeed with second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

However, Robinson is the player on whom the Falcons can rely when nothing else is working. He can fill the role that Saquon Barkley held for the Eagles during their 2024 Super Bowl run.

When the going gets tough, the Falcons only need to get No. 7 going.

But Atlanta Does Carry Concerns

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.

If you're waiting for the "but," we actually have several. The Falcons have a playoff-caliber defense and some truly special offensive stars. However, they're also a team that fell 30-0 against a rebuilding Carolina Panthers team in Week 3—and that was before running back Rico Dowdle established himself as this year's breakout star.

More than the disappointing Week 1 loss to the Bucs, the loss in Carolina exposed some weaknesses that are truly concerning.

The first is that Penix, while promising, is an inexperienced NFL quarterback. The Washington product possesses pretty much all of the traits a team could want in a quarterback. The ball leaps out of his hand, his deep-ball accuracy is fantastic and he's mobile enough to buy time in the pocket and pick up the occasional first down.

However, Penix also has just eight starts on his resume and is going to make rookie-level mistakes at times. We saw that against the Panthers, as Penix threw a pair of interceptions and was eventually pulled for Kirk Cousins.

While Penix has been good at times, his 85.6 passer rating suggests that he has a way to go before catching up with the conference's top signal-callers. He struggled late in the game on Monday after left tackle Jake Matthews exited with an ankle injury—and that's another lingering concern.

The Falcons also had issues stopping the run when it mattered against Carolina, and that's been a theme this season.

The defense has been good overall, but it has been vulnerable to the run. The Falcons rank a respectable 17th in rushing yards allowed but 27th in yards per carry allowed. With good running teams like Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Detroit likely to enter the playoff field, that's a potentially fatal flaw for the Falcons.

And Atlanta's 0-2 divisional record is another issue. The Falcons can still catch the Buccaneers and steal the NFC South if the Bucs' injuries catch up with them. However, Atlanta has to make up ground if it hopes to host a playoff game.

The Falcons are just 5-5 outside of Atlanta since the start of last season.

Falcons Can't Be Considered Super Bowl Favorites, but Deep Run is Possible

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. hands off to RB Bijan Robinson on Oct. 13

The Falcons have a talented, if imperfect, team. Their flaws aren't so significant that their two-game winning streak should be considered a mirage. However, they're significant enough that Atlanta probably belongs in that second tier of NFC contenders.

This team feels a lot like the 2024 Commanders or the 2023 Packers, and that's OK. Getting into the postseason, even as a wild-card team, would represent progress for a franchise that hasn't reached the postseason since 2017.

And Falcons fans can dare to dream. If the Buccaneers stumble, Atlanta could be hosting a team like Minnesota or Washington—teams it has already beaten—in the wild-card round. If Penix makes a second-year leap late in the season, the Falcons could find the sort of elite offense they're trying to build.

Any team that makes the playoffs has a chance to go far if it gets hot at the right time. The Falcons know that fact well, having watched the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl as a wild-card team following the 2020 season.

Are the Falcons one of the best two or three teams in the NFL? No, but they're capable of playing like it for stretches, and if they can string together a handful of good games in January, a deep run is entirely possible.

Of course, Atlanta first needs to address its biggest issues and start playing with some consistency. If the season ended today, they'd be watching the playoffs from home alongside other three-win teams like Washington, Carolina and the Chicago Bears.