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2025 NFL Week 5 Expert Picks
Bleacher Report's experts waved goodbye to a mediocre September and welcomed a new month with high aspirations.
Our analysts, Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski, and editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, love a good redemption story, and the crew will write its own as the season progresses.
O'Donnell pulled himself out of the gutter with an 11-5 record last week, while Moton took the lead in the standings with an overall 33-31 record.
This week, the panel leaned into one betting scenario that worked in September: lone wolf picks. Three of our experts stand alone in favor of home underdogs.
Let's see if they're right in believing oddsmakers disrespected a few home favorites.
Check out the standings against the spread, followed by our Week 5 picks.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 33-31
T-2. Hanford: 31-33
T-2. Knox: 31-33
T-4. O'Donnell: 29-35
T-4. Sobleski: 29-35
6. Davenport: 28-36
7. Gagnon: 27-37
Lone Wolf Picks: 8-4
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Sept. 30, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
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Knox: 49ers (+6.5)
Considering San Francisco's latest rash of injuries, this feels like it should be an easy Rams cover in L.A. However, San Francisco has a track record of performing well against them. The 49ers have won seven of the last 11 in the series (including playoffs), and L.A.'s four wins have come by an average of just over three points—with no margin exceeding six points. I expect the Rams to win. I also expect the 49ers to make them earn it.
O'Donnell: Rams (-6.5)
The last four Rams-49ers games were all decided by one score (extra point included), and L.A.'s margin of victory in its last 13 regular-season wins is actually 6.5 points. This is too on-point. It's the quick turnaround that has me on the opposite side of the panel here.
Typically, I'd be all over this many points for the Niners in a division game, but I see this as an opportunity for Matthew Stafford's team to prove they can capitalize on a game in its favor.
It's time for big plays from Puka and Davante while the Rams' defensive front wreaks havoc on whichever banged-up 49ers QB is playing Thursday night. It may not look entirely pretty, but it's time for a statement Rams victory.
Predictions
49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Rams: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-3) in London
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Moton: Vikings (-3.5)
On Wednesday, the Cleveland Browns benched Joe Flacco for Dillon Gabriel, who will make his first NFL start in London, which is a tough curveball for a rookie.
With Gabriel under center, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will make it difficult for Cleveland to establish its rhythm in the passing game.
The Browns' only hope of covering or pulling off a victory is if rookie running back Quinshon Judkins has a strong outing against the Vikings' 24th-ranked run defense. Minnesota should be prepared for him.
Sobleski: Browns (+3.5)
Myles Garrett probably entered this week's preparation licking his chops because the Vikings' offensive line isn't healthy enough to hold up against the Browns' defense.
With left guard Donovan Jackson on injured reserve, center Ryan Kelly in the league's concussion protocol and right tackle Brian O'Neill dealing with a knee issue, Minnesota's front five will almost certainly be overwhelmed by the No. 1 defense's ferocious front.
Garrett will be deployed to find the weak link and feast throughout the afternoon, of course.
Predictions
Vikings: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Browns: Gagnon, Sobleski
New York Giants (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)
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O'Donnell: Saints (-2.5)
If the Giants were playing a better team, I'd be all over this as an opportunity to build off Jaxson Dart's debut victory. But, it's just as difficult to go winless in an NFL season as it is to win a single game, and this is one of the few opportunities New Orleans has to notch a victory.
This will be Dart's first road start, with no Malik Nabers and more game film available for the QB's opponents. The Giants outmaneuvered and outcoached the Chargers a week ago, but any surprise element is gone.
First-year Saints coach Kellen Moore only spent six of the last seven years as a coach in the NFC East, too. He knows the Giants even if he doesn't know Dart.
Better days are coming for Big Blue, but New Orleans will win at some point, and this is a great opportunity to do so and cover a less than one-score spread in the process.
Sobleski: Giants (+2.5)
This selection comes down to which young quarterback is more trustworthy. Granted, Dart is entering only his second game as the Giants' starter, and Spencer Rattler has played relatively well considering the circumstances for the Saints.
Still, Dart is a superior talent and already showed how his inclusion in the lineup can provide New York with a boost. The latter cannot be said about Rattler.
Once a few betting points are thrown into the mix, it's an easy decision, with the Giants being more than capable of going down to the Big Easy and winning their second straight contest.
Predictions
Giants: Moton, Sobleski
Saints: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
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Denver Broncos (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
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Hanford: Eagles (-3.5)
The hook worries me a bit on this one, but the Eagles should handle the Broncos at home.
Both of these teams are comfortable playing through a slog on offense and relying on strong defenses, but I trust Jalen Hurts and his supporting cast to make enough plays right now more than I do Bo Nix and his crew, especially on the road.
The Eagles have been inconsistent so far this season, but this isn't the week we see it haunt them.
O'Donnell: Broncos (+3.5)
You can look up Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense's abysmal second-half performance from last week's win yourself, but the short of it is: 0 passing yards in the second half. At some point, things have to catch up with Philly.
They've proved otherwise in the past, particularly rising to the occasion when things look bleak, but this is a Broncos defense that won't give you anything.
Even if the Eagles don't find the loss column here, more than a field goal is too enticing to pass up. And, since 2023, they are only a mediocre 10-9-1 ATS as home favorites.
Predictions
Broncos: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Eagles: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
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Moton: Colts (-7)
On Tuesday, the Las Vegas Raiders placed left tackle Kolton Miller (ankle) on injured reserve. Their top cornerback, Eric Stokes, sprained his knee last week. Lacking depth on both sides of the ball, the Raiders don't have the quality backups to fill in for key starters.
Geno Smith has thrown a league-high seven interceptions, and he'll face a defense that's picked off four passes, tied for sixth in the league. Without Miller, he may be under duress for most of the game, and the Raiders could struggle to replicate last week's performance on the ground.
Defensively, the Colts should dominate this game in the trenches, giving their offense a cushion to win by more than a touchdown and an extra point at home.
Sobleski: Colts (-7)
A loss last weekend to the Rams wasn't enough to burst the Colts' bubble when it comes to the team's quality start.
If not for two boneheaded plays by Adonai Mitchell that directly negated two touchdowns, Indianapolis could have easily emerged victorious.
The Colts played well enough to potentially beat an NFC contender despite missing their starting right tackle, No. 2 wide receiver and nickel corner. The effort shows they might just be a good, competitive team capable of taking care of business against an opponent still trying to find itself in the Raiders.
Predictions
Raiders: Gagnon, Hanford
Colts: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
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Moton: Dolphins (-1.5)
At home, the Carolina Panthers are more competitive than they are on the road. So, this game could come down to a late fourth-quarter play that tilts the score one way or another.
That being said, tight end Darren Waller's emergence in the passing game can mitigate the blow of losing dynamic wide receiver Tyreek Hill for the season.
On a short week, the Miami Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to outscore the Panthers with De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle and Waller as their trio of primary playmakers. Carolina's 26th-ranked scoring offense falls short in a close battle.
O'Donnell: Panthers (+1.5)
Conventional wisdom points toward Miami as the pick here.
Bryce Young looks terrible right now, and while the Dolphins are 10-19 on the road in the Mike McDaniel era, they are 6-3 as away favorites.
The goodwill Young earned after reclaiming the starting job last season is not just gone, but it could also swing back even further toward another benching if he doesn't get it together.
The Panthers have spent three of the first four weeks on the road this season. Their lone win came at home in Week 3. The Dolphins haven't shown me enough to trust them in this spot, and I'm willing to roll the dice on a game that looks like a must-have for the Carolina QB this early in the season.
Predictions
Dolphins: Hanford, Knox, Moton
Panthers: Davenport, Gagnon, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) at New York Jets (0-4)
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Davenport: Jets (+2.5)
The same Dallas team that dropped 40 on the Packers last week and on the Giants in Week 2 has combined for just 34 points in its two road games (both losses).
The Cowboys aren't the same offensive team away from home, but the defense is the same no matter the venue—terrible. Jets win outright.
Knox: Cowboys (-2.5)
I have legitimate concerns about the Cowboys coming off an "emotional tie" against Micah Parsons and the Packers. Right now, though, I have bigger concerns about New York's propensity for mental and operational errors.
If the Jets can play mistake-free football, they can win. I just think we're still a few weeks away from seeing them do it.
Predictions
Cowboys: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jets: Davenport
Houston Texans (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (1-3)
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Davenport: Texans (+2.5)
If this isn't proof that life comes at you fast in the NFL, nothing is.
My confidence level in the Texans can be measured in microliters, but the Ravens already had major problems before half the team got hurt last week, including their best offensive and defensive players.
No Lamar Jackson. No Ronnie Stanley. No Roquan Smith. No Marlon Humphrey. No chance.
Hanford: Ravens (-2.5)
I'm going out on my own here as the rest of the crew (probably smartly) picks the Texans to take down the Jackson-less Ravens in Baltimore.
However, I just have a difficult time seeing Baltimore sitting at 1-4, with or without its star QB, and I've seen little from Houston that inspires much trust that it's a shoo-in to take this one.
Cooper Rush is 9-5 in his career as a starter dating back to his Cowboys days, and he's inheriting a stronger team on both sides of the ball in Baltimore than he had in Dallas.
I think Rush does just enough as the Ravens go back to leaning on Derrick Henry and an opportunistic defense to get a gritty win and stay in the AFC mix.
Predictions
Texans: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Ravens: Hanford
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
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Davenport: Buccaneers (+3.5)
Seattle may well be the most underrated team in the league right now, but Tampa is better. The Buccaneers are all about keeping games close this season, and I think they win outright here.
Gagnon: Buccaneers (+3.5)
I've got a new system—couldn't hurt, right?—where I predict the lines before seeing them every week. In this case, I nailed it with Seattle as a 3.5-point favorite. In other words, I'm not confident either way on this one.
The Bucs are coming off a loss, though, and Seattle is coming off three straight wins, so let's go anti-trend and take advantage of that hook. Keep in mind the Seahawks were not a good home team (3-6 straight-up) last year.
Predictions
Buccaneers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Tennessee Titans (0-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
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Hanford: Titans (+7.5)
The Titans are a mess, and I think the Cardinals win this game at home, but I don't trust Arizona just yet.
Trey Benson is banged up, which could put even more of an onus on Kyler Murray and the pass game.
Cam Ward and the Titans' passing attack have had growing pains through four weeks, but Arizona is allowing over 250 passing yards per game, so this could be an opportunity for the rookie QB to take a step.
Ward doesn't earn his first NFL win this week, but Murray makes a few mistakes, and the Titans keep this one closer than expected.
Moton: Cardinals (-7.5)
Coming off a Thursday night loss, Arizona had extra time to prepare for the league's lowest-scoring offense.
In Week 4, Tennessee failed to score against the Houston Texans, a result that occurred after head coach Brian Callahan relinquished play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bo Hardegree.
Don't expect the Titans to score much against the Cardinals' sixth-ranked scoring defense, especially with star wideout Calvin Ridley battling an injury that limited his workload last week. Arizona ends its two-game skid with a double-digit victory.
Predictions
Titans Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox
Cardinals: Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Detroit Lions (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
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Gagnon: Bengals (+10)
This line is suggesting the Lions are 13 points better than the Bengals. I know it's that whole Joe Burrow thing, but is he really worth that many points?
Cincinnati has plenty of talent elsewhere and is desperate at home. Those last two blowout losses came on the road. Throw in that the Lions' secondary has been gutted, and I'll take the points with a potential backdoor cover in my back pocket.
Knox: Lions (-10)
The Lions are giving a lot of points for a team on the road against an unfamiliar opponent, but it's hard to back the Bengals in any situation until I see Zac Taylor call a competent game plan.
Giving your starting back 10 carries with a bad defense and a backup QB behind center isn't going to win you a lot of games against playoff-caliber opponents.
Even more alarming than Taylor's coaching malpractice? The fact that Cincinnati's players have looked disinterested over the past six quarters.
Predictions
Lions: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Bengals: Gagnon
Washington Commanders (2-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)
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Hanford: Chargers (-3)
It sounds like Jayden Daniels may return in Week 5, but this is a tough spot. The Chargers' defense is very good, and they have the athletes to keep the quarterback contained.
On the other side of the ball, Omarion Hampton is starting to look like an integral part of the Chargers' offense and faces a Washington D that is allowing over 100 rushing yards per game and has also struggled to stop the pass this season.
If this were a few weeks past Daniels' return to the field, I may feel differently, but the Chargers make things too difficult and win this one by more than a field goal.
Gagnon: Commanders (+3)
I get the feeling Daniels will be back for Washington, and we saw some real red flags for the Chargers in that Week 4 loss to the Giants.
I wouldn't go nuts on this one either way, but I'll take the points with the better, more trustworthy team.
Predictions
Commanders: Gagnon, Sobleski
Chargers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
New England Patriots (2-2) at Buffalo Bills (4-0)
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Davenport: Bills (-8.5)
The Bills keep holding out difficult covers like Lucy with a football in the Peanuts cartoon, and I keep running at them. They didn't get the last two, but Buffalo has won three in a row by double digits and are at home this week.
And while the Patriots appear better than a year ago, that doesn't make them good.
Gagnon: Patriots (+8.5)
After three consecutive double-digit-point wins, I get the feeling Buffalo could be in for a bit of a letdown against a feisty division rival that put up a fight in a 24-21 loss to the Bills in Orchard Park last December.
The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five divisional home games.
Predictions
Patriots: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, O'Donnell
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
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Knox: Chiefs (-3.5)
Through one month, the Jaguars have exceeded expectations, while the Chiefs have fallen short of them, considerably. This could be a game that pulls both teams closer to reality.
Kansas City is finally starting to find an offensive groove and having a healthy Xavier Worthy certainly helps. Jacksonville's 15th-ranked defense has benefited from a league-high 13 takeaways—a turnover rate that doesn't feel sustainable.
Sobleski: Jaguars (+3.5)
The Jaguars deserve credit for a 3-1 start, particularly since they're still not firing on all cylinders, specifically on offense. Yet Jacksonville is finding ways to win. The squad's defense is flying all over the field and creating turnovers.
The Chiefs may have finally found some of their verve against the Baltimore Ravens, but that win looked better on paper than it did in reality since Lamar Jackson was limited due to injury, and the team's defense is simply not good this year.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, have a chance to get on track with a statement win. Now is as good a time as any.
Predictions
Chiefs: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Jaguars: Gagnon, Sobleski
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