2026 NFL Free-Agent QBs with Potential To Become Next Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones

The situation matters regarding a quarterback's development, and it's never been more evident than right now, with the Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones thriving after being considered first-round busts and now with at least their third team.

"In what world do you go from wearing a life vest and learning how to swim to being thrown in the deep end in the middle of a 200-meter freestyle against Michael Phelps?" Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell rhetorically asked The Athletic's Zak Keefer. "We decide in this league very quickly whether a guy can or can't play quarterback like it's a simple yes or no: This is the guy or this isn't the guy; let's either have a parade in the streets or let's move on and try and find another one."

Just because an organization moves on from a quarterback doesn't mean he can't play. Too often, a young quarterback is overwhelmed dealing with outsized expectations to turn around an entire franchise, particularly in the case of many former first-round picks who aren't necessarily landing with the best-run organizations, while still learning how to play the position at the highest level and become a professional. It's a lot.

Truthfully, those situations tend to be the primary driving force behind early-career failure. Any NFL fan can look around the NFL and see prime examples of talented signal-callers who are now thriving after landing in the right situation for them.

Mayfield's has continually gotten better as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after being discarded by the Cleveland Browns so they could chase the worst trade and contract in NFL history. Darnold played at a near-MVP level last season with the Vikings, and he's continued his strong play as a member of the Seattle Seahawks. Finally, Jones' revival with the Indianapolis Colts has been so good to start this season that it almost doesn't feel real.

These instances provide hope that an organization doesn't need to invest in a first-round quarterback just to draft one. With the right coaching staff and scheme, talent will be available again next offseason where a legitimate starting quarterback may emerge from the burnt husk of a former draft bust.

5. Sam Howell

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Sam Howell is the youngest quarterback on the list, while simultaneously bouncing between the most teams in the shortest amount of time. Now in his fourth season, Howell is already with his fourth organization.

In the same breath, four front offices have seen enough in Howell to warrant the expenditure of draft assets. To be fair, none of those franchises spent more than a mid-round pick. Still, upside remains in a signal-caller once projected as an early-round candidate, and a potential suitor can see the benefit of the quarterback's journeyman status to start his career.

"For me, this is my (fourth) offense that I've had to learn in the NFL," Howell said after being traded to the Eagles in late August. "So I'm kind of used to learning new things. I feel like I do pretty well in learning things pretty fast, so I'll be ready to go."

As a fifth-round draft pick, an argument can be made that Howell was thrust into an impossible situation as a full-time starter in only his second season on a squad that was short on weapons and didn't have a sound offensive front. But he's now with the best-run organization in the game—which should be further beneficial for Howell with any chance to become a starter again.

"(We) had a lot of appreciation for him as a player, and his talent level and the person that he was, spending time with him," Eagles general manager Howie Roseman said after acquiring Howell's services. "So, (he has been) a guy who's always on our radar."

4. Zach Wilson

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

On the surface, the chance to join the Miami Dolphins looked like an excellent opportunity. Though an 0-3 start with Mike McDaniel's seat heating up and starter Tua Tagovailoa being questioned at every turn has the makings of a combustible situation.

Even so, Wilson has already grown from the 21-year-old old quarterback, who entered the NFL as the second overall pick in the 2021 draft class.

Since the New York Jets chose to trade Wilson to the Denver Broncos, the quarterback has had an opportunity to learn from Sean Payton followed by McDaniel.

"What I see in Zach is the experience of being the second pick in the draft, being the starter Week 1 and then not fulfilling the rookie contract; that is behind him," Miami's head coach said this past offseason. "That's an exciting prospect because you can't put a measurement on that human ability that is huge at the quarterback position."

McDaniel added, "I watched every snap of [Wilson's] collegiate play, and he was a phenomenal talent that in my opinion didn't have reps in an NFL pocket yet. Like at BYU he was launching it from about 10 and 11 yards deep and you're not in the phone booth, and so in my estimation, there was going to be some nuanced growth to his game that I think it is close to impossible to excel that early in that new form of football that he was playing." 

With the issue identified and the chance to lean from two excellent offensive minds, Wilson could easily find a way into a lineup again and possibly show the natural ability that originally made him a top-three draft pick.

3. Trey Lance

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Trey Lance understood the assignment this offseason before signing with the Los Angeles Chargers.

"Going into free agency this offseason, my goal was to take a big step in my career," Lance said. "I want to be a starter one day. That's my goal and I believe it will happen. I'm just waiting for my opportunity. Coming the Chargers, Justin [Herbert] is obviously a great guy to learn from. Great situation for me to be in."

The 2021 third overall draft pick has never really been placed in a position to succeed. He began his career with the San Francisco 49ers. As a rookie, Lance backed up Jimmy Garoppolo. The rookie did see the field as a rookie but suffered a sprained knee to limit his time. Going into Year 2, the Niners named Lance their starting quarterback only to endure a season-ending ankle injury two weeks into the campaign.

After being traded to the Dallas Cowboys, Lance backed up Dak Prescott and started only one game after the latter suffered a serious hamstring injury.

As the backup of the Chargers, Lance has a chance to reset. Obviously, he has an opportunity to watch a quarterback of Herbert's caliber play on a weekly basis, which has been at an MVP level to start the current. Harbaugh and Greg Roman have even unshackled the offense with Herbert at the helm. Even so, they duo has been successful at multiple levels with different teams to help in Lance's development and give him a solid foundation whenever his next opportunity to start arises.

2. Malik Willis

AP Photo/Mike Roemer

Plenty of momentum build in Malik Willis' favor during the 2022 NFL draft cycle for him to be the class' QB1 based on his prodigious physically gifts, but closer inspection revealed a prospect not ready to handle NFL pre- and post-snap reads to make the correct decisions. As a result, he slide all the way into the third round.

Now four years into his career, particularly the last two seasons under the tutelage of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, Willis looks well-worth the gamble for a team searching for an investment at the quarterback position but maybe not quite willing to do so so with an incoming prospect.

After acquiring Willis from the Tennessee Titans, Willis was forced into the lineup during his first month with the team, where he helped the Packers win both games in which he led the offense.

"[It] is a testament that he's been working hard and he's been playing his game," former Packers defensive end Preston Smith said at the time. "He can make some passes, great passes, and he can run with his feet. When he gets going, it's hard to catch up. You see him in the open field, extending plays with his feet and doing what it takes to get positive plays for offense."

Really, the difference between Willis' time in Tennessee compared to Green Bay revolves around the team's head coach/offensive play-caller.

"LaFleur is a god for a quarterback," an anonymous scout told ESPN's Rob Demovsky.

Willis has gotten the opportunity to play for a top offensive mind and time to learn in a stable environment behind a quality quarterback in Jordan Love. At 26 years old, he's primed for a bigger opportunity elsewhere.

1. Kenny Pickett

AP Photo/David Richard

Kenny Pickett could have been a starting quarterback right now if not for a hamstring injury that prevented him from seriously competing for the Cleveland Browns' job during the preseason. Instead, the Browns chose 40-year-old Joe Flacco to start and shipped Pickett to the Las Vegas Raiders since Cleveland had a pair of promising rookies behind their veteran.

"[We] feel like he's a good decision-maker, he does a really good job of protecting the ball. He's very mobile, and we think that his relative strengths are something that fit well with the offense that we're putting into place for this upcoming year," Browns general manager Andrew Berry told reporters in March. "We do think that there's a pretty credible path for him to continue to improve and take a step forward, and I think you've seen that with players that they get into maybe new or sometimes maybe better environments for their particular path in their career."

Cleveland had every intention of letting Pickett compete after acquiring him from the Philadelphia Eagles and possibly winning the job outright but circumstances got in the way.

"Kenny is somebody that we've had a lot of respect for for a long time," Raiders general manager John Spytek said after trading a 2026 fifth-round pick to the Browns for Pickett. "I was in Tampa in 2022 when he was a rookie and beat us, beat Tom Brady. He fit the profile of what we're looking for. He does a lot of similar things that Geno [Smith] does with his athleticism and ability to move the pocket and all that."

Smith is another excellent example of a quarterback whose career finally blossomed later in the process.

Pickett originally failed with the Pittsburgh Steelers after being the only quarterback selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. He's somewhat limited from a raw arm talent perspective, but the situation in Pittsburgh didn't help matters with an uninspired offensive scheme and middling skill position weapons. Yet three teams have now traded for Pickett in 17 months, because they still see remaining growth potential. He can take what he's learned from all of his stops and use the knowledge as a way to advance into another starting role.