Ranking Padres SP Dylan Cease's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency
This season was supposed to be Dylan Cease's springboard into a colossal contract. But whether you thought he had a good or a bad season really hinges on which pitching data you value the most.
Cease's Career Stats: 1,015.1 IP, 65-58, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 16.7 bWAR, 21.0 fWAR
His ERA (4.55) was subpar and his record (8-12) was sub-.500. Baseball-Reference graded him out at barely one win above replacement, right alongside Jack Flaherty's disappointing 8-15 season with a 4.64 ERA for Detroit. Cease also managed just eight quality starts out of 32.
However, the underlying data—BABIP, FIP, xERA, xwOBA, etc.—all suggest that Cease had a particularly unlucky season. His velocity and strikeout rate remain the same as they ever have been. And FanGraphs WAR—rooted in FIP, whereas bWAR is rooted in RA9—rated Cease as worth at least 3.4 WAR for a fifth consecutive year.
So, could he get the Aaron Nola treatment in free agency?
The ever-durable Cease and Nola had very similar stats in their six years leading up to hitting the open market:
Cease (2020-25): 174 GS*, 3.73 ERA, 1,150 K*, sixth-best fWAR (20.3)
Nola (2018-23): 175 GS*, 3.66 ERA, 1,209 K, fifth-best fWAR (25.4)
*led the majors during the six years in question
They also took identical zig-zagging paths to the finish line. Beginning with their fourth-to-last season before becoming a free agent, here were their year-over-year ERAs:
Cease—2.20*, 4.58, 3.47*, 4.55
Nola—3.28*, 4.63, 3.25*, 4.46
*received Cy Young votes
Despite limping into free agency two years ago, Nola got $172 million over seven years to stay in Philadelphia. It's not difficult to envision this mustachioed ace fetching a similar contract.
7 Honorable Mentions
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Los Angeles Dodgers—Though not required to mention the Dodgers every time we're discussing a marquee free agent, they are forever lurking with their seemingly bottomless pit of cash. However, they already have a surplus of starting pitchers and seem far more likely to invest in the bullpen and/or Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami.
New York Yankees—See: Dodgers, Los Angeles. New York's rotation surplus isn't quite as robust as L.A.'s, but given what they already have, the Yankees shouldn't need to add marquee starting pitching in the next 2-3 years. Never say never, but Cease doesn't figure to be a priority for them.
St. Louis Cardinals—The last time the Cardinals invested at least $90 million in a free agent was to re-sign Matt Holliday 16 years ago. They are a big wild card heading into the offseason, and they most definitely do need starting pitching. But will they go this hard in free agency?
Washington Nationals—At some point, they're going to reinvest in winning and spend more than $15 million on a free agent for the first time since that ill-fated $245 million re-signing of Stephen Strasburg in 2019. Yet again, though, it appears that the Nationals are at least a year away from being a big splash away from relevance.
Philadelphia Phillies—If they ultimately re-sign Kyle Schwarber, they're looking at close to $200 million in 2026 just for their seven most expensive players. And they definitely need to address their catcher spot with J.T. Realmuto about to hit free agency. While they'd surely love to add Cease to the equation, there must be a limit on what they're willing to spend, right?
Texas Rangers—The Rangers still have Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi signed through at least 2027, are already committed to $143 million in 2026 between those co-aces, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Joc Pederson, and adding either a big bat or a reasonably sure thing at closer (for a change) figures to be where they aim the spending they can do. But the allure of going deGrom-Eovaldi-Cease atop the rotation for the next two years will be mighty tantalizing.
Los Angeles Angels—Mike Trout's window is closing fast, and it would be neat if he at least won a postseason game at some point in his career. When Arte Moreno makes a massive investment in one player, though, it's almost always a slugger. Overpaying for Kyle Tucker would be much more in line with this franchise's M.O. than throwing nine figures at an ace.
10. Detroit Tigers
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson, Keider Montero
A months-long collapse fueled by (aside from Skubal) woeful pitching could be just the catalyst Detroit needed to significantly increase its spending for a second consecutive offseason.
How much of an increase are the Tigers willing to make, though, keeping in mind Skubal only has one year of arbitration eligibility left before his colossal payday?
A Skubal-Cease tandem sure would be fun for at least one year, reminiscent of when Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer led Detroit to the World Series in 2012.
9. Baltimore Orioles
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez
Speaking of situations where poor pitching ruined what should have been a good thing and might drastically alter the approach this winter, life after Corbin Burnes sure was rough for the O's. (Trevor Rogers was a most pleasant surprise, but they were already 17 games below .500 by the time he made his season debut.)
With both Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells returning late in the season and looking great after their Tommy John recoveries, though, Cease could be the final piece of a championship rotation—if that's where Baltimore finally chooses to make a major investment for the first time in a decade.
The big question is the status of Grayson Rodriguez, who was supposed to be the ace this season, but never pitched due to an elbow injury that eventually required surgery. If they're confident he'll be back in 2026, they might decide they're fine without Cease.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Bowden Francis, Trey Yesavage, Ricky Tiedemann/Eric Lauer
With Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber all headed for free agency, Toronto's rotation looks a whole lot different from what it carried into the postseason. At least one offseason addition of a veteran arm is a near-must.
However, with the 11 known salaries for 2026, they're already sitting at around a $177 million payroll, and they still need to figure out how to either re-sign or replace Bo Bichette. Finding room in the budget for that and signing Cease could be a real challenge.
Then again, with both Gausman (UFA) and Berríos (opt-out) possibly leaving after next season, maybe they bite the bullet on a substantial luxury-tax bill to lock in at least one long-term starter now.
7. Chicago Cubs
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Matt Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Justin Steele (once healthy), Jameson Taillon
Two big questions with the Cubs' offseason plans:
- Are they going to re-sign Kyle Tucker? If they do, it's almost certainly the only nine-figure deal they'll pursue.
- When do they expect Justin Steele back? The initial report was "about one year" from his mid-April UCL surgery, but how confident they are in a return date could be a real difference-maker in how desperate they are to add one of the top free-agent pitchers.
Bonus question: Could they pursue Cease just so they never have to face him again? Including going 3.2 scoreless innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, he has a 1.34 ERA in seven starts against them over the past five seasons, all seven of which were losses for the Cubs.
Chicago invested $155 million in Jon Lester during the 2014-15 offseason, as well as $126 million in Yu Darvish three years later. It might be about time for another big one.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Cristian Mena, Nabil Crismatt
If the Diamondbacks are going to invest in an ace-caliber pitcher who had a bit of a rough walk year, it would most likely be the one they've enjoyed having on their roster for the past seven seasons, Zac Gallen.
If they can't convince Gallen to stick around on a long-term deal, though, Plan B would be to start kicking the tires on a deal with Cease. (Or maybe they try to get both?)
Either way, the Snakes have made it clear over the past six offseasons that they are willing to spend for starting pitching, investing first in Madison Bumgarner and more recently in Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery and Corbin Burnes.
And while Burnes possibly misses all of 2026 in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, they owe it to what has been, arguably, the best offense in baseball over the past three years to make at least one more splash for a potential ace.
5. Boston Red Sox
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Connelly Early/Payton Tolle/Kyle Harrison
A couple of months ago, Boston might have been No. 1 on this list. Aside from Garrett Crochet, their Opening Day rotation of Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts was either injured or left much to be desired, or both.
But Brayan Bello has blossomed into a legitimate rotation fixture, while the trio of No. 5 options above rather surprisingly tossed its way into the October mix after spending most of the year in the minors. If they believe in at least one of those guys and expect Kutter Crawford to be back in the mix in 2026, maybe they don't worry about signing a co-ace for Crochet.
They have more than enough room in the budget to make multiple big signings, though. And if they can't adequately replace the bats of Alex Bregman and Trevor Story if those infielders opt out, they could instead just focus on making the rotation stronger.
4. San Diego Padres
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, Yu Darvish, JP Sears
Who better to fill the Dylan Cease-sized hole in San Diego's rotation than Dylan Cease?
We know darn well the fit is good. Even though he had some rough luck on the whole this season, he has had a 3.29 ERA at Petco Park over the past two seasons. And after Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta, this rotation starts to get questionable in a hurry.
Can they afford to bring Cease back, though?
Pivetta's contract, which is bizarrely structured, spikes from $2.5 million in 2025 to a $20.5 million salary in 2026. Manny Machado's price tag is also increasing from $17.1 million in 2025 to $25.1 million in 2026, and then to $39.1 million for 2027 and beyond.
As a result of those increases, they already have five players making at least $20 million next season, plus Darvish at $16 million, Jake Cronenworth at over $12 million, and a couple of other known figures, bringing their total to almost $160 million for 11 players. They're also already on the hook for about $170 million in 2027.
That wouldn't be a huge deal for a handful of teams, but we're talking about a Padres club that worked diligently to slash its payroll to $164 million heading into 2024 before letting it climb back close to $210 million to open 2025.
They might let Cease walk without much of a fight, but we'll see how badly they want to make the playoffs for a fifth time in seven years.
3. Houston Astros
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander
Like the Diamondbacks, here's another spot where a team could choose to re-sign the top-tier free-agent pitcher who has been a fixture in its rotation for some time now instead of trying its luck with a new expensive arm.
However, in this case, it has felt inevitable that both the Astros and Framber Valdez will be content to pursue new relationships this winter.
And if Valdez does walk, Houston's rotation becomes Hunter Brown and a steady refrain of: "If he's healthy."
The Astros are already going to be without Luis Garcia, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter for probably the entire season, each recovering from UCL surgery. And between the projected 2-4 starters above, they got a combined total of 28 starts, 127.2 IP and a 5.64 ERA in 2025.
The Astros already have seven players signed to a combined salary of $159.4 million in 2026 and have averaged an Opening Day payroll of $228 million over the past two years. But finding the money to get a workhorse like Cease would be huge in their quest to remain a legitimate contender for at least one more year.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp, Carson Whisenhunt, Kai-Wei Teng/Blade Tidwell
In Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, the Giants have one of the better one-two punches in baseball. But aside from Justin Verlander's second-half renaissance, the rest of the rotation never quite got into a groove as the team sputtered its way into a no-man's land of .500-ish baseball for the fourth consecutive year.
There's no question this team is invested in winning right now. They gave Matt Chapman a $151 million extension last September, signed Willy Adames for $182 million in December and agreed to take on the estimated $254.5 million left on Rafael Devers' contract in that June blockbuster. They also already had Ray, Webb and Jung Hoo Lee signed for multiple years.
For those six stars, though, they're "only" on the hook for $136.55 million in 2026, with the rest of the roster almost exclusively consisting of guys who are either pre-arbitration or about to enter their first year of arbitration eligibility—meaning the combined salary of those 20 players will probably be less than $20 million.
The Giants entered 2024 with a $208 million payroll, and they could sign Cease without even sniffing the $200 million threshold.
Perhaps they would rather invest in an upgrade at second base, right field, or closer, but their only particular need is at least one more starting pitcher.
Might as well make it a good one.
1. New York Mets
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Projected 2026 Rotation: Clay Holmes, Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Jonah Tong/Brandon Sproat
Quantity of options isn't the Mets' problem, as in addition to the seven pitchers above, let's not forget about Christian Scott, who had some solid showings as a rookie in 2024 before missing all of 2025 to recover from Tommy John surgery.
Rather, the Mets' problem was that, aside from Nolan McLean, there wasn't a single pitcher in the rotation who could be trusted to supply a decent start—let alone an official quality start—as the team collapsed through the second half of the season. And with a grand total of eight starts under his MLB belt, we shall see if even McLean can remain a top-half-of-the-rotation option moving forward.
If both Pete Alonso (opting out) and Edwin Díaz (who can opt out) are gone while both Frankie Montas and A.J. Minter exercise their player options, the Mets will enter the offseason with a "before arbitration figures are exchanged" payroll of a bit less than $200 million.
And, well, they've been a bit north of $320 million on Opening Day in each of the past three seasons, so there is theoretically an absurd amount of room in Steve Cohen's budget to go get someone like Cease to cement atop the rotation.
We thought they'd make a major splash for a Corbin Burnes or Max Fried this past offseason, and neglecting to do so might be the biggest reason they missed the playoffs. Sprucing up that rotation figures to be a major point of emphasis this winter.
