Win-Loss Predictions for Every Team's 2025-26 NBA Season
We can muse about potential breakouts, mine for hidden gems and fixate on offseason grades all summer, but we've now hit the point where hard numbers come into play.
That's right; we're going to simplify everything. Get right to the point. Stop trafficking in minutiae. It's time to predict actual wins and losses for the 2025-26 NBA season.
Can Luka DonÄiÄ haul the Los Angeles Lakers to new heights? Will Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler hold up? How low might the Boston Celtics sink after losing Jayson Tatum and trading away multiple starters?
We'll answer those questions as we lay out full-season records for every NBA team.
Atlanta Hawks: 46-36
1 of 30
Forty-six wins might not seem like much, especially in light of the hype generated by the Atlanta Hawks' Grade-A offseason. That total would still be Atlanta's highest in a decade, and a six-win improvement over last year's figure.
Several swing factors could influence the Hawks' overall record, but Jalen Johnson's health is perhaps the biggest. He got off to a brilliant start last year, averaging 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists through 36 games. A shoulder injury put an early period on his season, but 2025-26 could conclude with an exclamation point if he continues the progress he showed in his age-23 campaign.
Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher and Onyeka Okongwu are all in their early-to-mid 20s and should either sustain last year's levels or improve on them. Okongwu, in particular, could elevate his profile if the increased three-point volume he flashed last season is for real.
Trae Young is the known commodity, a likely All-Star who should shine even brighter with more supporting talent around him than he's had in years. New additions Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard are all starting-caliber contributors, and the first two have played major roles on deep playoff runs in the past.
A tremendous eight-man rotation, several players entering their primes and a weakened East combine to give the Hawks a real shot at 50 wins. This could wind up being a conservative prediction.
Boston Celtics: 37-45
2 of 30
The Boston Celtics averaged 58 wins over the last four seasons and haven't finished under .500 since 2014-15, but a new era is upon them.
Jayson Tatum will miss the season with a torn Achilles, and offseason cost-cutting measures led to the departures of Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford. While Boston still has title-tested talent in Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and a handful of others, it's very clear 2025-26 will be a gap year.
The weakened big-man rotation will make it tough for the Celtics to produce a league-average defense, and Brown will be overtaxed as a first optionāparticularly with reduced talent around him. It's possible the offense will still be solid if it continues to lead the league in three-point volume.
New addition Chris Boucher offers theoretical stretch, and all three of Pritchard, White and Sam Hauser will ensure Boston's attack is well-spaced. If Anfernee Simons sticks around, he'll also help in that effort.
In the end, 37 victories might be too generous. If the Celtics are serious about winning every night, that's a reachable number. But Boston owns its 2026 first-rounder and could easily pivot into a tank if Brown misses time.
Brooklyn Nets: 16-66
3 of 30
The Brooklyn Nets weren't as bad as they should have been last year, as head coach Jordi Fernandez presided over a young, frequently overmatched team that played hard enough to start 9-10 and ultimately win 26 games.
We should expect Fernandez to coax similarly strong effort out of his team again this year, but offseason moves seemingly designed to produce losses will ensure the record winds up where it should.
Brooklyn used multiple first-round picks on ball-handlers, which suggests the offense will be in the hands of inexperienced decision-makers almost all the time. That's the best possible way to ensure failure, and Brooklyn can accept that if it ultimately reveals a long-term option at the point. Growing pains will be plentiful, and points will be very hard to come by.
Cam Thomas may not be at his happiest playing on a $6 million qualifying offer, Michael Porter Jr. isn't going to be nearly as dangerous without Nikola JokiÄ setting him up and Nic Claxton probably feels like a trade out of Brooklyn is two years overdue.
The Nets are still very early in their rebuild, and they're going to look like it.
Charlotte Hornets: 31-51
4 of 30
LaMelo Ball is among the most exciting offensive creators in the league, but his health record has also reached the point where we have to expect him to miss significant time.
If Ball is healthy, Charlotte's surrounding talent and improved shooting should allow for more than 31 wins. A Play-In berth might even be possible if Kon Knueppel pops as a rookie, and if Brandon Miller takes a step forward in his third season. More likely, Ball will miss time, Charlotte's young players will take more lumps and one of the worst center rotations in the league will lead to ghastly defensive numbers.
Without Ball on the floor last season, the Hornets got outscored by a whopping 13.3 points per 100 possessions. Anyone expecting Collin Sexton to provide insurance as a reserve guard who can start in a pinch should note the 17-win Utah Jazz posted a 34th-percentile offensive rating when he was on the floor last year.
The Hornets' offseason was defined by opportunistic asset acquisitionāthe hallmark of a rebuilding team taking its time. If Charlotte swings any deals, they won't be of the win-now variety.
Chicago Bulls: 38-44
5 of 30
Nikola VuÄeviÄ will turn 35 during the first week of the season. Any expected improvement from second-year forward Matas Buzelis, an undeniably exciting prospect, is only going to offset what should be a precipitous VuÄeviÄ decline.
And that's only if Chicago is lucky. Vooch put up one of the best seasons of his life last year, marked by a career-best 61.1 true shooting percentage and the highest free-throw attempt rate since he left Orlando a half-decade ago. Late-career leaps like that are almost never sustainable, and the Bulls have absolutely nothing behind VuÄeviÄ on the center depth chart.
In fairness, Chicago has a fringe All-Star offensive talent in Coby White. Head coach Billy Donovan instituted an aggressive style that produced a 12th-ranked attack last season. If Tre Jones stabilizes the reserves, Josh Giddey manages to sustain his second-half gains and Vooch holds on for another year, the Bulls are going to have an above-average offense.
They'll struggle defensively, though, and almost nothing here suggests a ceiling above 42 or 43 wins.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 57-25
6 of 30
The Cleveland Cavaliers are still the best bet to finish atop the East standings, but they'll be hard pressed to match last year's 64 wins. Darius Garland is set to miss several weeks to start the season, and Max Strus will be out even longer, per Terry Pluto of Cleveland.com.
In addition to players forced to rest, the Cavs might also take a more liberal stance toward suggesting nights off for their healthier bodies. Donovan Mitchell has a history of nursing injuries in the playoffs, and new addition Lonzo Ball might as well be kept on ice as often as possible.
Evan Mobley could be a top-five candidate for MVP, Jarrett Allen is a steady option at center and most of the East won't pose a threat to the Cavsāeven when they're playing at less than full strength. That means the floor is still higher here than it is anywhere else in the conference.
Dallas Mavericks: 42-40
7 of 30
Size won't be an issue for the Dallas Mavericks and, by extension, neither should defense. Between Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson and Max Christie, the Mavs are overstuffed with rangy forwards and centers.
Don't be surprised to see units where Flagg or Washington has to slide all the way down to the 2.
All that length will be of little help on offense, where D'Angelo Russell has his work cut out for him as the team's only reliable ball-handler until Kyrie Irving returns.
Spacing will be at a premium if Dallas intends to put its best overall players on the floor, which will make Russell's pick-and-roll work harder. Not only that, but Flagg profiles as perhaps the rotation's second-best shot creator. Expect major slogs on both ends as the Mavs overwhelm opponents with their size on D but struggle to get anything going offensively.
Denver Nuggets: 53-29
8 of 30
A deeper rotation that now includes Jonas Valanciunas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and old pal Bruce Brown should help the Denver Nuggets add to last year's win total of 50. Our projection of 53 victories might seem conservative if Aaron Gordon can log more than last year's 51 appearances, but the Nuggets have little incentive to push their key starters during the regular season.
For that matter, Nikola JokiÄ might play fewer than last season's 70 games. Ditto for Jamal Murray, who appeared in 67 contests.
As long as JokiÄ is on the roster, Denver will put up elite offensive numbers. Denver hasn't finished outside the top 10 in scoring efficiency since JokiÄ took over a starting job.
If Cam Johnson can replicate Michael Porter Jr.'s shooting with just a little more defensive consistency, it's possible the Nuggets' core lineups are even better than they were a year ago.
Remember, players tend to look like their best selves with JokiÄ spoon-feeding them. Johnson could be in for a career year.
Detroit Pistons: 45-37
9 of 30
It's easy to get swept up by the momentum that propelled the Detroit Pistons from 14 to 44 wins in a single year, but progress isn't always linear. We're still giving Detroit one more win than it managed in 2024-25, but back-to-back leaps are usually more fantasy than reality.
Cade Cunningham finished seventh in MVP voting last season, solidifying himself as one of the NBA's top young stars. If Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert can replace what Dennis Schroder and Simone Fontecchio provided last season, there's a case to be made that Detroit's supporting cast will be at least as good as it was a year ago.
Improvement is even possible if Malik Beasley winds up returning on the cheap, Jaden Ivey picks up where he left off prior to injury and Jalen Duren takes another step.
Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II also offer major upside, but shooting questions linger. More broadly, Detroit still doesn't really know how Ivey fits with either of those two. He and Thompson played just 146 possessions together last year.
Detroit's floor is high, but some of the personnel groupings are a bit unsettled. If Tobias Harris misses time, there's also no good floor-spacing replacement at the 4.
Golden State Warriors: 47-35
10 of 30
The Golden State Warriors are going to play like a 55-win team (or better) when all of their veterans are healthy and available. Those three plus Brandin Podziemski posted a plus-15.0 net rating in 619 possessions down the stretch last year.
It's just that the age of the current core means there will be stretches when one or more of Stephen Curry (age-37 season), Draymond Green (35) and Jimmy Butler (36) are either out with injury or resting to prevent one.
Al Horford is widely expected to start at center, and he's older than all three of those guys.
Podziemski could be a Most Improved candidate if he figures out how to create shots for himself, and Quentin Post drilled 40.8 percent of his triples on very high per-minute volume for a center. Moses Moody is a solid rotation wing, and it's possible Kuminga even gives the team a scoring boost off the bench if he sticks around and doesn't become a malcontent after his restricted-free-agency staring contest.
Alternatively, Kuminga could be the trade chip that lands the Dubs a record-boosting star at the deadline.
Houston Rockets: 52-30
11 of 30
Fred VanVleet's torn ACL will hurt the Houston Rockets' bottom line, but perhaps not as much as you think.
Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson will get every opportunity to prove they can handle the point in FVV's absence, and it certainly won't hurt that Kevin Durant will be on the receiving end of their setups. Remember, too, that VanVleet had a down year in 2024-25 and was set to enter his age-31 season. Small guards don't age well, and he might have lost significant minutes to Sheppard and Thompson anyway.
The Rockets are going to have one of the best defenses in the league, and their coreāThompson, Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen SengĆ¼n and Tari Easonāare all at ages where improvement should be the expectation.
Houston is going to crest the 50-win mark for the second straight year, even without VanVleet running the offense.
Indiana Pacers: 34-48
12 of 30
Rick Carlisle is among the best coaches in the league, and the Indiana Pacers are still going to play harder than their opponents on most nights. But there's just no way to gloss over the absences of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner.
Those two were the guard and center bookends to Indy's whole operation, with the former chiefly responsible for the contagious ball movement and the latter providing the five-out spacing that made all that passing and cutting work so well. Without them, the Pacers are short on stars and may have to figure out a new identity.
This feels like a gap year, and it's telling that the Pacers control their 2026 first-rounder after a prescient mid-Finals trade. Though Indiana has never been in the business of tanking, it's not hard to imagine a stretch run during which Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith and the rest of the veteran starters get liberal rest.
With that possibility in mind, we can set the Pacers' ceiling somewhere around 40 wins. Their floor is much, much lower.
LA Clippers: 45-37
13 of 30
It's hard to separate the product on the floor from the cap-circumvention controversy that overshadowed their offseason. That story obscured the fact that the LA Clippers added real talent to a roster that won 50 games a year ago.
Bradley Beal should replace Norman Powell's production at shooting guard, and John Collins gives the Clips a real power forward for the first time in a while. The frontcourt is even deeper with Brook Lopez backing up Ivica Zubac, and Chris Paul offers insurance if James Harden can't repeat a surprisingly strong 2024-25.
Even with those additions, the Clippers are at the mercy of age. We're projecting five fewer wins than last year because Harden (36) is highly unlikely to hold up for another 79 games, Leonard (34) will probably miss at least half the season and the CP3-Lopez duo (40 and 37, respectively) could hit the proverbial cliff's edge at any moment.
Much like Golden State, this team will be a force when whole. Also like Golden State, those instances will be few and far between.
Los Angeles Lakers: 47-35
14 of 30
Luka DonÄiÄ has won 50 games with less surrounding talent than he'll have this coming season with the Los Angeles Lakers, but the above win total prices in the possibility that all the offseason chatter about his conditioning could amount to as little as it has in the past.
Revenge bodies are great, but we'll need to see DonÄiÄ looking trim and moving well during the season before authorizing full buy-in on his fitness. If he truly is reformed, he could win MVP and haul the Lakers to 55 wins.
LeBron James' decline continues to be gradual, and he'll likely produce another All-NBA season. New additions Deandre Ayton and Jake LaRavia should also contribute quality minutes.
Other than those two, though, it's hard to argue the Lakers improved themselves. Marcus Smart looked washed up in Memphis and Washington last yearāto the point that he's probably not an upgrade over the departed Dorian Finney-Smith.
Memphis Grizzlies: 46-36
15 of 30
The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins with a mere handful of games left in the regular season, overhauled their offense midstream and got just 50 underwhelming games from Ja Morant.
They still won 48 contests with a point differential that says they actually should have won 53.
Desmond Bane's exit hurts the bottom line, as do offseason surgeries for Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edeyāboth of which will impact the early part of the year. Though the Grizzlies are still deep enough to tread water at less than full strength, they're unlikely to spring out of the gates in October and November.
Morant could get back on track if the offense returns to its pick-and-roll roots, but a dearth of shooting could lead to a congested lane. If Edey is hampered by ankle issues following surgery, the front line will be a little light and probably struggle to rebound.
There's real upside here if the whole gang gets healthy, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope bounces back and Jaylen Wells dials in his three-point shooting.
Miami Heat: 42-40
16 of 30
The Miami Heat somehow managed to land Norman Powell for Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson, an absolute steal that only looks more valuable now that Tyler Herro will miss the start of the season following ankle surgery. Even if Powell is unlikely to repeat last season's late-career breakout, he came aboard at the right time for the right price.
The veteran shooting guard won't help Miami's defense, but that's not where the team projects to have an issue anyway. The Heat finished ninth on D a year ago and should be right around that level again with Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo giving them a firm guard-wing-big foundation.
If Miami can figure out how to better last year's 21st-ranked offensive rating, it could push its win total into the mid-40s. That will require big production by Powell, plus growth from youngsters like Pelle Larsson and Kel'el Ware.
Milwaukee Bucks: 42-40
17 of 30
Myles Turner is the ideal big man to put next to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he's overstretched as a No. 2 option on a Milwaukee Bucks team that has one of the shakiest guard and wing rotations in the league.
While it's true the Bucks did as well as they could with their minimum signingsāTaurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris and Cole Anthonyāit's hard to argue anyone in that group is a clear starter in a vacuum. Kyle Kuzma was among the most damaging players in the league last season after joining the Bucks. He'll be better, but that's a low bar after producing a fifth-percentile Estimated Wins figure.
An injury to Antetokounmpo would send the Bucks spiraling, but they don't project to contend even if he stays healthy all season. Bereft of picks to trade and hampered by the $22.5 million in dead money on their books from the waive-and-stretch of Damian Lillard, the Bucks also lack the resources to acquire reinforcements.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 55-27
18 of 30
Anthony Edwards turned into an elite high-volume three-point shooter last season, an out-of-nowhere development that makes any bet against further growth seem ridiculous. Entering his age-24 season and coming off back-to-back seventh-place finishes in MVP voting, Edwards is primed to explode.
Edwards is also part of a defensive infrastructure that should land the Minnesota Timberwolves in the top 10 on that end. Rudy Gobert is still a singular force in the paint, and Jaden McDaniels is among the best perimeter stoppers in the league.
Assuming Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are more comfortable in their second seasons with the team, and considering potential steps forward for youngsters like Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr., the Wolves should be able to offset the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency and the likely decline of 18-year vet Mike Conley.
Last year's 49 wins are Minnesota's new floor, with a jump to 60 very much in play.
New Orleans Pelicans: 27-55
19 of 30
We can all agree the New Orleans Pelicans' ceiling is much higher than 27 wins, but reaching it depends on way too many "ifs".
The largest of those is the health of Zion Williamson, who missed all of 2021-22 and has appeared in an average of 43 games over the last three years. Maybe he'll play half of New Orleans' games this season, but to expect more than that is to ignore history.
Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III make up an excellent wing duo, but the Pelicans have one of the worst center rotations in the league and will depend on Jordan Poole to an alarming degree. Between him, Williamson and Murphy, New Orleans will have weak points for every opposing offense to attack. And on the other end, Poole's value will dip further when relegated to an off-ball role in Zion-centric schemes.
New Orleans can't tank because it gave up its unprotected 2026 first-rounder in a draft-night trade with the Hawks. In the end, the team's intentions may not matter. Odd fits, major defensive questions and health risks should combine to suppress the win total naturally.
New York Knicks: 53-29
20 of 30
With so much talk about how one-note the New York Knicks' offense seemed last season, it's easy to forget it ranked fifth in the league. New head coach Mike Brown doesn't need to scrap the entire system; he just has to diversify it a bit, lighten the load on Jalen Brunson and build an attack that depends a little less on offensive rebounds.
If he can get Karl-Anthony Towns to shoot more than 4.7 threes per game, a criminally low figure for one of the best floor-stretching bigs in history, all the better.
The Knicks are a bit deeper this season with Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele in the fold. If Mitchell Robinson stays healthy all year, there's also a good chance New York betters last season's No. 12 finish in defensive efficiency.
In all, the Knicks are in line to increase their win total for the fourth straight season and might only fall short of 50 victories if they prioritize rest for their key starters. If they keep their foot on the gas all year, they could push the Cavs for No. 1 in the East and maybe even approach 60 victories.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 62-20
21 of 30
A 62-20 projection may seem like a step backward from last season's 68-14 mark, which came complete with the best point differential of all time. But after a season that historically good, there's really nowhere to go but down.
That's not to say the Oklahoma City Thunder's reign is over after a single title. We still have them winning five more games than any other team, and they're deservedly the favorite to win the 2026 championship. With a defense that should once again be the best in the league, MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the offense and a young roster that should improve around him, OKC remains the most complete outfit in the NBA.
Following a deep playoff run, the Thunder may rest SGA, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren more often. It'd also behoove them to use the regular season as a testing ground for a more egalitarian, movement-heavy offense. Between some health-related caution and stylistic tinkering, the Thunder will, by choice, not threaten 70 wins again this season.
Orlando Magic: 49-33
22 of 30
If Desmond Bane sustains his career rate of 41.0 percent from deep, Jalen Suggs stays healthy, Franz Wagner finally learns how to shoot and Paolo Banchero works his way to the foul line even more often than the 8.4 times per game he managed last year, the Orlando Magic have a shot at an offensive rating above the league average.
Combined with what should easily be a top-10 defense, that'll be enough to get them into the 50-win range.
Though improved by the presence of Bane and fellow new addition Tyus Jones, Orlando's offense remains a real question mark. Spacing will continue to be an issue.
Wagner's sub-30.0-percent three-point shooting extended to a second straight year last season, to the point that it's worth wondering about his long-term fit next to Banchero. He can quiet any such speculation by knocking down shots at league-average rates.
Philadelphia 76ers: 43-39
23 of 30
If Joel Embiid turns in another 19-game season and Paul George misses half the year, the Philadelphia 76ers could again find themselves in the lottery. Though the presence of Tyrese Maxey and intriguing guard depth behind him could soften the landing, Philly's fate ultimately remains tethered to its stars.
For what it's worth, Embiid showed up to camp looking trim. That doesn't mean the knee issues that have wrecked multiple seasons are a thing of the past, but a lighter frame can't hurt in his effort to stay healthy. Maybe he'll give the Sixers 40 or 50 games, a major improvement from last season.
We fixate on the 76ers' downside, but it wouldn't be fair to ignore their potential on the positive end. If their top talent avoids major injury, and if the younger core of Maxey, Jared McCain and rookie VJ Edgecombe hold up their end, a 50-win season isn't out of the question.
Phoenix Suns: 26-56
24 of 30
Devin Booker has played 68 games or fewer in four of the last five seasons, a relevant statistic considering his supporting cast no longer includes Kevin Durant. When the Phoenix Suns' best player inevitably misses 15-25 games, they'll be drawing dead against almost every opponent.
Even when Booker is healthy, the Suns will face an uphill climb on offense. Though he's among the better facilitators on the wing, Booker isn't a point guard. He'll split that role with Jalen Green this season, which doesn't bode well.
Add to that the Suns' reliance on center Mark Williams, who has averaged 35 games per season during his three-year career and never once rated as a positive defender, and it's easy to imagine Phoenix finishing in the bottom five on defense for the second year in a row.
No KD, an unproven head coach in Jordan Ott, an owner who doesn't seem to understand NBA asset management and a Western Conference that refuses to relent combine to give the Suns little hopeāboth this season and over the next half-decade or so.
Portland Trail Blazers: 43-39
25 of 30
This is a big jump for the Portland Trail Blazers, who closed strong but still only finished with a 36-46 record a year ago.
Improvement will stem from a combination of developing youth and imported vets. Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan are all 25 or younger and likely to take steps forward. New addition Jrue Holiday will impart experience, offensive poise and just enough of what used to be the best perimeter defense in the league to balance out all that youth.
Let's not forget the potential locker-room impact of Damian Lillard, who won't play as he recovers from a torn Achilles but who should keep the vibes positive.
Keep an eye on Avdija. He played like a legitimate two-way star as Portland went 23-18 down the stretch, posting averages of 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists on a 64.0 true shooting percentage after the All-Star break. If that comes anywhere close to representing his true talent level, the Blazers could push their win total toward the high 40s.
Sacramento Kings: 33-49
26 of 30
The Sacramento Kings' record has trended in the wrong direction over the last three years, and that's going to continue in 2025-26.
Start with Dennis Schroder replacing De'Aaron Fox as the starting point guard, a clear downgrade even in light of Fox's one-foot-out-the-door posture prior to being traded last season. Amid dysfunction, Fox put up 25.0 points and 6.1 assists in 45 games for the Kings. Schroder could have a career year and never come close to that level of production.
As has been the case since they combined forces, Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan make no sense as a core. None of the three rates anywhere close to average on defense, and the Sabonis-DeRozan combo offers zero offensive spacing.
Sacramento controls its 2026 first-rounder and could pull the ripcord if injuries mount or a slow start under unproven head coach Doug Christie makes it clear drastic measures are necessary.
San Antonio Spurs: 42-40
27 of 30
It's not a contradiction to believe Victor Wembanyama can play at a fringe-MVP level this season while also noting his San Antonio Spurs will still be lucky to win more games than they lose.
Wemby will ensure San Antonio has a trustworthy defense whenever he's on the floor, which has been the case since he entered the league. De'Aaron Fox, a former All-Star still in his prime, is probably the best teammate Wemby has ever had. At the same time, the Spurs are going to rely on young, mistake-prone, shaky-shooting guards in major roles. Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper are unlikely to rate as positive contributors this early in their careers.
Combined with potential regression from veteran Harrison Barnes and the still-uncertain chemistry between Wembanyama and Fox, it's far from guaranteed that San Antonio will better last year's 20th-ranked offensive rating.
Wemby could be so spectacularly dominant that all these concerns melt away as the Spurs make a stunning push toward 50 wins. More likely, they'll take a more measured step forward by adding eight victories to last year's total.
Toronto Raptors: 41-41
28 of 30
The Toronto Raptors didn't make any major additions this offseason outside of rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, and yet so much remains uncertain about them.
Brandon Ingram has never played with this core, and his career-long reluctance to shoot lots of threes makes him a tricky fit next to Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl up front. With a thin, rangy build that makes it difficult for Ingram to get open in space off the ball, the Raptors may have no choice but to feature him in a role that will necessarily pull touches away from Barnes and Immanuel Quickley.
Depth should be a strength here, as the Raps can call on several young playersāJamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo, Ja'Kobe Walter, Gradey Dick and Murray-Boylesāin the event of injuries to the starters. That doesn't do much for Toronto's ceiling though, which feels like a defense-driven 45 wins.
Utah Jazz: 17-65
29 of 30
In Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, the Utah Jazz have exactly two legitimate NBA starters. The former is two years removed from his lone All-Star appearance and hasn't played more than 66 games in a season since he was a rookie. The latter has only ever suited up for a tanking squad, which means he's effectively proved nothing.
After that, things get even sketchier.
Utah is going to give the lion's share of minutes to players born after 2002, none of whom have established themselves as credible two-way threats. That's not to say Kyle Filipowski, Isaiah Collier, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, Cody Williams and Ace Bailey won't ever become useful rotation players. But anyone suggesting that group will do anything but learn through failure this season is making an argument without evidence.
The Jazz are near locks to finish at the bottom of the Westāboth because they have the least talent in the conference, and because their starless rebuild should force them to aim for the cellar.
Washington Wizards: 19-63
30 of 30
Great news! The Washington Wizards, who won 18 games last year, are going to get better.
News that is less great: They will still be very, very bad.
The Wiz are supposed to stink, which provides some solace, but stink they shall. No other outcome is possible with a rotation that'll skew heavily toward first and second-year players when it isn't showcasing the occasional washed-up veteran in hopes of attracting trade inquiries.
Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly (relatively ancient as a third-year pro), Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George and rookie Tre Johnson should all get 30 minutes per game as the Wizards continue to suss out who'll have a role on the next competitive iteration of the team. No one from that group showed enough last season to suggest winning basketball is in the cards any time soon.
Hopefully one or two of them will use the 2025-26 season to change that, and we'll be discussing an up-and-coming Wizards core by this time next year.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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