Buy or Sell Each MLB Playoff Hopeful Advancing in 2025 Postseason
Ready or not, the 2025 Major League Baseball postseason is rapidly approaching.
Will we end up with a repeat of the 2024 World Series clash between the Yankees and Dodgers? Or could it be a Brewers-Mariners showdown (or Padres-Mariners, for that matter) in which the victor secures its first ever title?
Thus far, no one has clinched a playoff spot. However, Milwaukee is getting very close, and it has been the same 12 teams in the projected postseason field for nearly two months at this point.
For the eight teams currently on the outside of the playoff picture but still within five games of crashing the party, our focus is on whether they'll make the postseason at all, buying or selling those odds, per DraftKings.
Here, we list each team's postseason odds—from making the playoffs through to winning the World Series—using percentages from Baseball-Reference and betting lines from DraftKings (updated as of Wednesday morning).
Teams are presented in alphabetical order.
The 'Outside Looking In' Tier (American League)
1 of 14
If the regular season ended today, the postseason bracket would be Boston, Detroit, Houston, New York, Seattle and Toronto in the American League, as well as Chicago, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia and San Diego in the National League.
And you probably already know that, as this has been the case every morning dating back to July 13.
In each league, though, there are still four teams fighting the good fight, sitting within 4.5 games of the No. 6 seed, as of Wednesday morning.
Can any of them pull off the late comeback?
Cleveland Guardians (2.5 GB, 11.1% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +600 to make postseason via DraftKings)
The Guardians have won 10 of their last 14, leaving quite a bit of wild-card wreckage in their wake. They took two of three from Seattle, four of five from Tampa Bay and have opened their four-game set against Kansas City with back-to-back victories. But there's still quite a bit of mountain left to climb, including six games against the Tigers. It's not impossible, but they're going to need some help to get it done. Selling Guardians at +600.
Kansas City Royals (4.0 GB, 2.8% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +1600 to make postseason via DraftKings)
At several points in the past three weeks, Kansas City has been the singular team most likely to overtake Seattle. But opening September with a 3-5 record against the Angels, Twins and Guardians has left the Royals in a nearly inescapable hole. Even if they sweep that upcoming three-game set against the M's (Sept. 16-18), they still need to worry about leap-frogging Cleveland and Texas, too. And with an offense that can't be trusted to score multiple runs in back-to-back games, good luck with that sweep. Selling Royals at +1600.
Tampa Bay Rays (4.5 GB, 1.6% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +3000 to make postseason via DraftKings)
In recently winning 10 of 12 games (including a sweep of Seattle), Tampa Bay stormed from 61-67 and seven games back of the No. 6 seed to 71-69 and just two games back. But ending that hot stretch with three consecutive home losses to Cleveland pretty well extinguished any hope of crashing the postseason party. With 13 of their final 16 games coming against teams all but assured a spot in the playoffs (Blue Jays, Cubs and Red Sox), it's going to take a near miracle at this point. Selling Rays at +3000.
Texas Rangers (1.5 GB, 48.6% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +320 to make postseason via DraftKings)
What's funny about Baseball-Reference giving the Rangers a way better shot at making the playoffs than its actual betting line is that its model was aggressively anti-Texas early in the year, giving the team just a 2.0 percent chance of making the postseason on May 3, its "90 percent confidence" intervals saying the Rangers' best-case scenario was an 80-82 record with a worst-case scenario of 61-101.
Both figures seem misaligned: 48.6 percent is too high for a team 1.5 games out with no games left against the No. 6 seed. However, +320 (implied 23.8 percent chance) for the team with the best record in baseball (13-4) dating back to August 22 is way too low, especially considering Texas is also just 2.5 games back of Houston (with three H2H games still to come) for the AL West crown. Buying Rangers at +320, perhaps with a little sprinkle on Rangers at +2500 to win ALCS.
The 'Outside Looking In' Tier (National League)
2 of 14
If the regular season ended today, the postseason bracket would be Boston, Detroit, Houston, New York, Seattle and Toronto in the American League, as well as Chicago, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia and San Diego in the National League.
Once again, this has been the case every morning dating back to July 13.
In each league, though, there are still four teams fighting the good fight, sitting within 4.5 games of the No. 6 seed, as of Wednesday morning.
Can any of them pull off the late comeback?
Arizona Diamondbacks (4.5 GB, 3.1% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +3000 to make postseason via DraftKings)
For a minute there, Arizona was flirting with duplicating Detroit's irrational path to the 2024 postseason, aggressively selling at the deadline and falling to eight games below .500 in early August before a miracle finish. After three straight losses to Boston and San Francisco, though, the jig is likely up. Making up this big a deficit while ending the season with four straight series against the Giants, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres is effectively impossible. Selling Diamondbacks at +3000.
Cincinnati Reds (3.0 GB, 12.6% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +850 to make postseason via DraftKings)
Three weeks ago, the Reds were just one game back of New York after months of slowly but surely trending in the right direction. Unfortunately, all that work unraveled in a hurry with eight losses in nine games. They did recently take two of three from the Mets to at least keep things interesting, but clawing back ahead of both San Francisco and New York is a tough ask. This +850 line is probably the fairest of the eight teams in this "Outside Looking In" range, but it's a stay away for us. Selling Reds at +850.
San Francisco Giants (2.0 GB, 21.5% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +550 to make postseason via DraftKings)
The Giants were done three weeks ago, seven games below .500 after a stretch of 11 losses in 13 games. At that point, they were 7.5 games (and four teams) behind the Mets for the No. 6 seed, as well as 12 games back of Los Angeles in the NL West.
But now, after 13 wins in 16 games, the wild-card deficit is manageable, and even the division crown isn't completely out of the question, at seven games back with seven games left against the Dodgers. Out of nowhere, they technically control their own destiny—and it sure has been a while since it looked like the Mets had any interest in controlling theirs. Buying Giants at +550.
St. Louis Cardinals (4.5 GB, 0.8% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +4000 to make postseason via DraftKings)
It's wild that the Cardinals even entered September with a faint pulse for the No. 6 seed despite going 35-45 in June, July and August. With just one three-game winning streak over the course of their last 69 games played, though, it would take one heck of an out-of-character surge for them to make up this deficit. Selling Cardinals at +4000.
Boston Red Sox
3 of 14
Reach Postseason: 98.4%
Reach ALDS: 60.3%
Reach ALCS: 32.1% / +320
Reach World Series: 19.1% / +750
Win World Series: 9.4% / +1900
This weekend's Yankees-Red Sox series (in Boston) is positively massive. The loathed rivals entered Wednesday tied for second place in the AL East standings, just 3.0 games behind the Blue Jays.
Sweep that three-game set and Boston—which also has a series in Toronto later this month—has a decent shot at securing the AL's No. 1 seed. That would mean home-field advantage in the ALDS against (most likely) the winner of a Blue Jays-Yankees wild-card series.
Get swept by the Yankees, though, and Boston would instead be left facing an extremely uphill climb to anything better than the No. 5 seed.
To be sure, though, "road team in the Wild Card Round" hasn't exactly been a death sentence in the three-year era of the 12-team postseason. In fact, the road team has won eight of those 12 wild-card series, with five of those eight winners also advancing to the ALCS/NLCS.
And at 40-21 (including a 19-12 road record) since June 30, there's little reason to assume the red-hot Red Sox couldn't take two of three in New York or Toronto to open the postseason, if necessary.
The Red Sox boast a formidable starting trio—Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito—for the postseason. Their bullpen is anchored by Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman, who together have allowed just three earned runs over 48.1 innings since late June.
They're also fourth in the majors in runs scored and could get quite the end-of-season boost on offense if and when both Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony return from the IL.
It's honestly a bit comical that the Red Sox have the worst World Series odds of the 12 teams likely to make the playoffs.
Buy/Sell: Buying Red Sox at +320 to reach ALCS and +1900 to win World Series
Chicago Cubs
4 of 14
Reach Postseason: >99.9%
Reach NLDS: 55.4%
Reach NLCS: 21.3% / +270
Reach World Series: 11.6% / +750
Win World Series: 5.3% / +1600
There is a strong case to be made that the Cubs have been the second-best team in the majors this season.
Sure, it'd be an easier case to make if Kyle Tucker hadn't landed on the IL last week and if Pete Crow-Armstrong could snap out of his second-half slump, but they've managed to tread water even without getting much out of what had been their dynamic duo through the first few months, still boasting the third-best run differential in baseball.
Unfortunately, Chicago shares a division with the best team in baseball and is a borderline insurmountable 6.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. That means the Cubs are going to need to take two out of three home games (likely) against the Padres in the Wild Card Round for the right to face Milwaukee, which will have home-field advantage, in the NLDS.
And that's how you end up with arguably the second-best team in baseball getting the 10th-best odds of winning it all.
(It might be time for MLB to start thinking about just seeding the postseason by record regardless of division finish, but that's an argument for another day.)
With the way Cade Horton has been pitching, though, never say never. The rookie has a 1.25 ERA in 12 starts since the beginning of July and has rather emphatically answered the question of whether the Cubs could survive in October sans Justin Steele.
Whether it's Colin Rea or Jameson Taillon as their fourth starter for one of those first two NLDS games in Milwaukee remains to be seen, but the trio of Horton, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga might be able to anchor a deep run.
Buy/Sell: Selling Cubs at +270 to reach NLCS, but Buying Cubs at +1600 to win World Series, just in case they do reach the NLCS
Detroit Tigers
5 of 14
Reach Postseason: 99.7%
Reach ALDS: 95.8%
Reach ALCS: 43.6% / +100
Reach World Series: 18.8% / +295
Win World Series: 7.0% / +750
If the Tigers looked today like they did two months ago, these would be juicy lines.
You remember the "two months ago" Tigers?
Top five offense AND top five pitching staff?
Sitting 25 games above .500, three games clear of the next-best record in baseball in early July?
Ah, those were the days...
Since then, Detroit has gone 24-28 with a run-of-the-mill offense and a pitching staff that has been brutal when anyone other than Tarik Skubal takes the mound. And while he could just about single-handedly carry them through the ALDS, even he can't win four games for them in the ALCS.
Detroit did have a pretty magical nine-run seventh inning against the Yankees on Tuesday night, though. Maybe that will be the spark to turn this season back around as it closes in on a postseason berth that felt like it had been clinched before the All-Star break.
However, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and Charlie Morton rounding out this rotation in a best-of-seven series against, frankly, anyone the American League has to offer is a terrifying proposition when contemplating placing a bet on Detroit getting back to (let alone winning) the World Series.
Buy/Sell: Selling Tigers at +295 to win AL pennant
Houston Astros
6 of 14
Reach Postseason: 63.2% / -370
Reach ALDS: 30.2%
Reach ALCS: 12.4% / +320
Reach World Series: 5.0% / +650
Win World Series: 1.9% / +1400
At their apex in early July, the Astros had arguably the best pitching staff in the majors. Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez were awesome atop the rotation, and god speed trying to mount a late comeback against a bullpen that had an MLB-best 30 saves, an MLB-low eight blown saves and 60 holds.
In losing 32 of its last 55 games, though, a suddenly sub-mediocre pitching staff has exposed Houston's bigger problem: An offense that ranks dead last in the American League in runs scored since one week before the All-Star break.
Even with Yordan Alvarez's loud return from the IL with a 1.247 OPS dating back to August 26, the Astros have managed just 3.7 runs per game and a losing record.
This is still Houston, though.
The Astros have won 59 postseason games over the past eight years. The only other AL team to even play in 35 postseason games during that stretch is the Yankees (58). Thus, even though Houston was swept out of the Wild Card Round last October, it's hard to shake the feeling it's a dumb idea to bet against this team in the playoffs.
Then again, whether the Astros will even make it to October is still very much up in the air.
Houston entered Wednesday one game ahead of Seattle and just 2.5 games ahead of Texas, with one series remaining against each of those AL West foes (both at home). And barring a collapse by either Boston or New York, there's not going to be room for all three. There might even only be space for one, if any of Cleveland, Kansas City or Tampa Bay sprints to the finish line.
The Astros should make the playoffs, but -370 suggests a near-80 percent chance. That's too high.
Buy/Sell: Selling all Astros futures at listed odds
Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 14
Reach Postseason: 98.6%
Reach NLDS: 51.1%
Reach NLCS: 20.9% / +145
Reach World Series: 6.7% / +280
Win World Series: 2.7% / +500
As far as potential return on investment is concerned, there has never been a better time to bet on the Dodgers winning the 2025 World Series.
They opened as the relatively heavy favorite after winning last year's championship, entered the regular season in the +300 range and continued to hover there seemingly no matter how long their injured list got and how uninspiring their play was. But at some point in the past week, they were supplanted by the Phillies (at least on DraftKings) as the betting favorite to win it all.
As far as recent momentum is concerned, though, there has never been a less comfortable time to invest in the Dodgers winning the World Series.
That'll happen when you're 25-32 in your last 57 games, suffering sweeps at the hands of the Angels and Pirates and just generally looking incapable of stringing together multiple good games.
For the most part, though, the starting rotation has been great. Even during this rough 57-game stretch, all six of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan have posted a sub-4.00 ERA.
They just need bats other than Ohtani's to start delivering on a regular basis, and getting Max Muncy back from the IL this week could be the key to tapping back into this lineup's limitless potential.
If actual betting lines matched up with Baseball-Reference's projections for the Dodgers, I'd be buying all of them. 50/50 to survive the Wild Card Round? And roughly +3600 to win it all? Yes please.
At the actual betting lines, though, that's a whole bunch of "stay away" across the board.
Buy/Sell: Selling all Dodgers futures at listed odds
Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 14
Reach Postseason: >99.9%
Reach NLDS: 99.8%
Reach NLCS: 63.8% / +100
Reach World Series: 41.2% / +350
Win World Series: 26.1% / +750
As has been the case for some time, the Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in the majors, the best run differential in the majors and postseason betting odds that simply do not reflect those facts.
At least those lines are less laughably offensive these days. Early on in their 14-game winning streak to begin August, the Brewers had the best record in baseball by a two-game margin and were tied for the ninth-best World Series odds.
They're up to into a tie for third-best odds now, as they close in on clinching at least a first-round bye and quite possibly home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Still, they deserve better. Milwaukee should be the World Series favorite.
For starters, they don't homer like a champion. The last five World Series winners ranked top-four in total home runs during the regular season. Milwaukee is currently ranked 20th in that department. That's a real concern, as it becomes harder to manufacture runs in October.
There's also the unknown at closer. Trevor Megill will hopefully be returning from his flexor strain next week, but he was already looking shaky before hitting the shelf. In fact, dating back to August 16, the Brewers have blown more saves (seven) than any other team. And with the way Devin Williams let them down in Octobers past, Milwaukee fans were already unlikely to have much faith in save situations.
Who doesn't have flaws this year, though?
And who can even hold a candle to Milwaukee's sustained excellence over the past four months?
This is the team to beat, even if Vegas hasn't been forced to treat it as such.
Buy/Sell: Buying Brewers at +750 to win World Series
New York Mets
9 of 14
Reach Postseason: 65.1% / -400
Reach NLDS: 30.5%
Reach NLCS: 11.5% / +450
Reach World Series: 3.7% / +950
Win World Series: 1.4% / +1700
Dating back to June 13, the New York Mets have gone 31-45. That's one game better than the Washington Nationals and one game worse than the Chicago White Sox.
They did score a road sweep over the Giants in late July, which has become a colossal data point in the race for the final wild-card spot. New York also briefly snapped out of its funk for a home sweep of the Phillies in late August.
But the Mets have been, on the whole, a hot mess for the past three months.
For the most part, it's because of the pitching staff.
New York had an MLB-best 2.83 ERA through its first 69 games, but that has given way to an atrocious 5.01 mark over the last 76 contests.
Nolan McLean has been a revelation, and a handful of relievers have more than held up their end of the bargain. But who would have guessed in mid-June that Kodai Senga (then with a 1.47 ERA) would be demoted to Triple-A after eight consecutive uninspiring turns through the rotation? Or that a rookie who made his MLB debut less than a month ago would become the only starter any of the fans actually want to see take the mound in October?
Though it is still more likely than not that New York staves off San Francisco for the final wild-card spot, -400 is a bit aggressive. So, too, is the +450 "to reach NLCS" line, which is effectively a parlay on them A) making the playoffs, B) ousting the Dodgers in the Wild Card Round and C) besting the Phillies in the NLDS for a second straight year.
Buy/Sell: Selling all Mets futures at listed odds
New York Yankees
10 of 14
Reach Postseason: 98.8%
Reach ALDS: 50.6%
Reach ALCS: 25.6% / +165
Reach World Series: 13.3% / +360
Win World Series: 6.2% / +800
The Yankees tax is no joke.
As mentioned, New York and Boston entered play on Wednesday tied at three games behind Toronto in the AL East, this weekend's showdown in Boston all but guaranteed to have some impact on the AL's ultimate 1/4/5 seeding picture.
But while Boston has a 9.4 percent (per B-R) and +1900 odds (per DraftKings) of winning it all, the Yankees are sitting at 6.2 percent and +800, respectively.
In fairness, New York does feel like the AL team to beat these days.
At 20-10 dating back to August 6, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. Max Fried has regained his early-season form with four consecutive quality starts, while Carlos Rodón and Luis Gil have made a combined 12 starts without allowing more than two runs in any of them.
Meanwhile, David Bednar has taken the reins as closer, and six Yankees have mashed at least seven home runs apiece during that 30-game stretch, including Giancarlo Stanton flirting with setting career-best slugging and OPS marks.
If they stay hot, win the AL East and secure a first-round bye, that +360 line to reach the World Series is probably going to shrink to more like +200. And unless they get swept by Boston this weekend, ending the regular season with seven games against Baltimore, three in Minnesota and three at home against the White Sox sure does seem to pave the way to a possible No. 1 seed.
Buy/Sell: Buying Yankees at +360 to win ALCS
Philadelphia Phillies
11 of 14
Reach Postseason: >99.9%
Reach NLDS: 97.2%
Reach NLCS: 57.1% / +100
Reach World Series: 27.3% / +240
Win World Series: 15.5% / +475
Prior to landing on the IL with a hamstring strain, Trea Turner had been maybe the hottest hitter on the planet, batting .420 with a 1.068 OPS and 10 stolen bases in his last 22 games.
While the expectation is that he'll be back in time for the postseason, will he return at anything close to that same level of dominance?
And which version of Aaron Nola is going to show up in October? The one who went six scoreless innings in a key victory over the Mets on Monday? Or the one who had an 8.38 ERA in his previous four starts after spending three months on the IL?
Would be fantastic to have those questions answered before trying to put any sort of odds/ceiling on what the Phillies will do this postseason. Alas, we'll have to work with what we've got.
They're 29-17 dating back to July 21, and the trade deadline acquisitions have been massive during that surge. Jhoan Duran has 12 saves with a 1.32 ERA and Harrison Bader is batting .333 and serving as the near-everyday center fielder this team had been trying to find for well over a year.
Couple those successful additions with Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh hitting a whole heck of a lot better than they did in the first half of the season and the Phillies have surged into the betting favorite to win it all, even while losing Zack Wheeler for the year.
That said, it's likely they'll draw the Dodgers in the NLDS before running into the Brewers (with Milwaukee holding home-field advantage) in the NLCS. That's a lot to ask at +240.
Buy/Sell: Buying Phillies at +100 to reach NLCS; selling other Philadelphia futures
San Diego Padres
12 of 14
Reach Postseason: 98.3%
Reach NLDS: 46.9%
Reach NLCS: 18.1% / +265
Reach World Series: 7.3% / +650
Win World Series: 2.8% / +1300
With a bullpen featuring Adrián Morejón, Robert Suarez and trade deadline acquisition Mason Miller, scoring runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings against the Padres in October figures to be quite the herculean task.
But with an offense that ranks 29th in total home runs this season and a starting rotation in which the likely No. 2 starter in the postseason (Michael King) has logged just seven big league innings since mid-May, how often will there be leads for that elite bullpen to protect?
Since briefly reclaiming first place in the NL West on August 23, San Diego has gone 5-10, swept at home by Baltimore, losing a series in Minnesota and failing to sweep a series against Colorado.
We'll let you decide which of those was least forgivable for a team battling for a No. 3 seed while hoping not to drop out of the postseason picture altogether.
At least since adding Ramón Laureano to the mix, there's been some pop in the lineup, his eight home runs since August 1 good for twice as many as the next-closest Padre. And at least King made a respectable return from the IL on Tuesday.
Those two will be crucial in determining whether the Padres make any noise this postseason.
Buy/Sell: Selling Padres at +265 to reach NLCS
Seattle Mariners
13 of 14
Reach Postseason: 75.8% / -500
Reach ALDS: 38.1%
Reach ALCS: 18.7% / +275
Reach World Series: 7.8% / +550
Win World Series: 3.2% / +1300
At the trade deadline, Seattle became the trendy pick to win the ALCS.
And as the Mariners reeled off wins in 10 of their first 11 games after the deadline, they rather quickly crossed the threshold from "trendy pick" to "betting favorite" for the AL pennant.
But when the M's turned around and lost 15 of their next 21 games, the market adjustment was nowhere near as swift or drastic. Despite clinging to the AL's No. 6 seed, Seattle still has the fourth-best odds of winning the ALCS, as well as the seventh-best odds of winning it all.
Most likely, Seattle does end up making the postseason. It's gone 21-6 in its last 27 home games and it has seven home games left against the Angels and Rockies.
The Mariners also end the regular season at home against a Dodgers team that may well be locked into the NL's No. 3 seed and much less concerned with winning that series than getting themselves situated and rested for the Wild Card Round.
However, Seattle making the postseason is still questionable enough—and its play over the past month has been lousy enough—that these betting lines feel out of touch with what has become the reality of this team that is on pace to allow 108 more runs than it did last season.
Buy/Sell: Buying Mariners at -500 to make postseason; Selling Mariners at +550 to win ALCS
Toronto Blue Jays
14 of 14
Reach Postseason: >99.9%
Reach ALDS: 88.9%
Reach ALCS: 46.9% / +125
Reach World Series: 25.6% / +340
Win World Series: 13.6% / +850
Could this be the year when Toronto breaks through and makes some real noise in the postseason for the first time since Joe Carter's home run landed more than 11,600 days ago?
Or are the Blue Jays headed for another immediate, winless exit from the postseason, like they endured in each of 2020, 2022 and 2023?
Losing a scorching-hot Bo Bichette to the IL earlier this week wasn't a step in the right direction. Though they expect his bat back in the lineup in time for the postseason, could his absence be what opens the door for either the Yankees or Red Sox to win the AL East? If so, that would add a large hurdle at the beginning of Toronto's path back to a World Series.
The bigger question than Bichette, though, is this pitching staff in general.
Among the likely postseason teams, no one has allowed more runs this season than Toronto. Shane Bieber has been just OK in three starts since his sensational season debut, and "just OK" has been the state of this entire rotation for most of the year. Meanwhile, the Jeff Hoffman experience at closer is inducing more heartburn than any spicy food could.
They've made it work thus far, presently in position for the AL's No. 1 seed. And it was only two years ago that the two worst pitching staffs in the postseason squared off in the Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series.
Still, with the very real possibility of needing to first survive the Wild Card Round, Toronto at basically even odds to reach the ALCS is a hard pass.
Buy/Sell: Selling Blue Jays at +125 to reach ALCS
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