The Fatal Flaw for Every AL and NL 2025 Playoff Contender
As playoff time approaches, MLB teams must contend with either glaring weaknesses or underperforming strengths.
While a significant flaw is more likely to doom a contender, even highly-touted units that underperform can frustrate organizations and fans.
This article breaks down the specific fatal flaws facing each 2025 AL and NL playoff contender.
The 'Not Done Yet' Honorable Mentions
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Texas Rangers: Underperforming lineup
In a star-studded lineup, Corey Seager is the only regular with an OPS over .800. Disappointing offensive seasons from Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson, Adolis García and Josh Jung will likely keep Bruce Bochy's squad out of the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays: Outfield
The three primary outfielders for Kevin Cash this season have been Christopher Morel, Chandler Simpson and Josh Lowe. Lowe's .713 OPS is the highest of that trio.
Kansas City Royals: Outfield
The promotion of top prospect Jac Caglianone didn't have the impact the Royals hoped it would in June when they called him up. He has a minus-1.2 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. You can have a defensive-first center fielder in Kyle Isbel, but only if you get great offensive production in the two corners, which the Royals have not.
Cleveland Guardians: Gambling (allegedly)
The Guardians probably didn't have enough offense to make the playoffs this season, but had Emmanuel Clase not been put on non-disciplinary paid leave as part of a gambling investigation, Cleveland either would have had him or been able to deal him for a major return. Plus, Guardians players have to look over their shoulders now it appears Clase and Luis Ortiz were involved in such serious misconduct.
San Francisco Giants: Impact hitting
Rafael Devers has been on a tear recently, but the Giants still don't have enough big bats. Though Willy Adames has been much better in the second half of the season, he hit just .220 with a .680 OPS before the All-Star break. The Giants need more from Adames next year, and president of baseball operations Buster Posey still needs to add another impact bat or two, which isn't easy given the reputation of Oracle Park as a nightmare for power hitters.
Cincinnati Reds: Offensive cornerstones
Terry Francona's club has a starting staff that would be a problem if they got into the postseason. But despite playing their home games at a hitter's haven, the Reds haven't gotten enough production from their lineup outside of Elly De La Cruz. They can hope for improved results next year from someone like Matt McLain, but they are a team that should be active in free agency in trying to get more sure things in their lineup next year.
Toronto Blue Jays
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Fatal Flaw: Back end of the bullpen
In a wide-open American League, the Blue Jays appear to have as good of a shot as any junior-circuit to make a run to the World Series.
But while you feel pretty good about the five experienced options in their starting rotation in Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber and José Berríos, the 4.15 bullpen ERA is ninth among teams in the AL.
Specifically, the performance at the back end of the bullpen leaves something to be desired.
Jeff Hoffman has 30 saves in 2025, but his seven blown saves are second among relievers in the AL. In the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal, he has a 4.77 ERA. That's a far cry from the 2.28 ERA he posted over the two prior seasons while pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays acquired Seranthony Domínguez from the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline. He has a 3.95 ERA in 16 appearances with the Blue Jays, so he hasn't been lights-out, either.
Also troubling is that Yariel Rodríguez has a 4.82 ERA in the second half, as opposed to a 2.47 mark prior to the All-Star break.
Hoffman and Domínguez each have quite a bit of postseason experience, so you don't have to worry about the moment being too big for them in October. But it is fair to wonder if John Schneider has the arms at the back end of the bullpen to win it all.
Detroit Tigers
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Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching after Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal is en route to winning his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award, which would make him the first pitcher to repeat as the winner of the honor since Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.
Skubal will give the Tigers an advantage over any team in Game 1 of a postseason series. But after the game's best pitcher, there's quite a bit of uncertainty.
Jack Flaherty helped the Dodgers to win a World Series last fall, but his second stint in Detroit hasn't gone as well as the first. The 29-year-old has a 4.85 ERA in 28 starts this season. Granted, his 4.10 expected ERA and 3.97 FIP suggest he's been unlucky, but the Tigers need more from him.
Elsewhere, Alex Cobb (hip inflammation) hasn't pitched all season after signing for $15 million, and former No. 3 overall pick Jackson Jobe was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery in June.
Reese Olson—who had a 3.15 ERA in 13 starts—is out for the regular season with a right shoulder strain, although the Tigers haven't closed the door on him potentially coming back in October.
Really, what this is going to come down to is a guy or two stepping up in the postseason.
Casey Mize, another former first-round pick, has a 5.59 ERA since being selected to his first All-Star Game. Charlie Morton has had a strong career and comes with a wealth of postseason experience, but the 41-year-old has a 5.81 ERA since being acquired by the Tigers.
As great as Skubal is, the Tigers are screwed if they don't win his starts. Even if they do, manager A.J. Hinch is going to have his work cut out trying to piece together the other games.
Houston Astros
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Fatal Flaw: Health
Could it be that in an AL that doesn't have an overwhelming favorite the Astros will return to the World Series for the fifth time in nine seasons? Well, to do so, they are going to have to have better injury luck.
The good news is that after a right hand fracture cost him much of the season, former ALCS MVP Yordan Alvarez is back anchoring Houston's lineup. He is one of the most imposing hitters in the game when he's right.
Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier have each returned to the starting rotation as well after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Houston needs more certainty in its starting rotation after the strong one-two punch of Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, so getting those two back is huge.
The bad news, though, is that closer Josh Hader (left shoulder sprain), Spencer Arrighetti (right elbow inflammation) and Isaac Paredes (right hamstring) are all on the injured list. Arrighetti is almost certainly done, while both Hader and Paredes are continuing to attempt to get back this season, although it's unclear if either will be successful in their quest.
Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Bryan King are still a strong trio at the back end of the bullpen, but with Hader, manager Joe Espada had arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Without him, it's not quite at that same level.
New York Yankees
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Fatal Flaw: Bullpen
Aaron Boone's bullpen is quite the collection of names. But the results from those names have been all over the place this year.
Devin Williams—the two-time Trevor Hoffman Award winner—has had a disastrous season with the Yankees, pitching to a 5.60 ERA over 58 games this year. Mind you, he has a 1.83 career ERA entering the season.
Former All-Star Camilo Doval was acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline. He has a 4.97 ERA since joining the Yankees.
David Bednar has a 2.87 ERA since being acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he has blown three of his seven save attempts.
If any of that trio gets back on track, the Yankees bullpen could turn around in a hurry when you factor in Luke Weaver, Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill. But the vibes have never felt right with the arm barn in the Bronx this season.
Seattle Mariners
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Fatal Flaw: Aces not performing like aces
In theory, the Mariners have as good of a starting rotation as anyone in baseball. But they are one of the teams we alluded to on the opening slide where the apparent strength of the team isn't performing like you would expect.
- Since the All-Star break, Logan Gilbert has a 3.88 ERA.
- After missing nearly two months with right shoulder inflammation, George Kirby has a 4.47 ERA in 19 starts this season.
- Luis Castillo's 3.85 ERA is fine, but beneath what you would expect from the three-time All-Star.
Bryan Woo has been the ace for the Mariners this year, with the 25-year-old All-Star posting a 3.02 ERA over his first 27 starts of the season.
But even with the success of Woo and a lineup that's as good as the M's have had in a long time, their success in the postseason, assuming they get there, is going to come down to their aces pitching like aces.
Boston Red Sox
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Fatal Flaw: Loss of Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony has gone from the top prospect in baseball to the most impactful position player on the Red Sox in a hurry. That makes the loss of the 21-year-old to a left oblique strain a difficult pill to swallow.
Across his first 71 MLB games, Anthony is hitting .292 with 18 doubles, 40 walks, an .859 OPS and eight defensive runs saved in right field.
With Alex Bregman, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story, Alex Cora's lineup isn't bare without Duran, but his loss probably for the rest of the regular season—he was placed on the IL on Sept. 3—is going to make it difficult for the Red Sox to win the AL East.
Even if the Red Sox are able to get into the playoffs without Anthony—be it as division winners or wild-card representatives—there's no guarantee he'll be back for the playoffs.
While Boston didn't put a specific timeline on Anthony's return, Cora acknowledged the typical absence for someone with this injury is four to six weeks.
If Anthony is at the back end of that, he won't be ready for the start of the postseason. It's also not a guarantee that he's 100 percent again this year if he comes back at the front end of it.
The good news for the Red Sox is that the window just appears to be opening with Anthony. However, there's no time like the present, and in a wide-open AL, there's no reason a healthy Red Sox team can't win the pennant this year.
But it's much more difficult to imagine them doing so if Anthony has played his final game during the 2025 regular season, and perhaps the whole campaign.
Philadelphia Phillies
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Fatal Flaw: Father time catching up to Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola
Paul Skenes is going to win the NL Cy Young Award, but there's a strong chance Cristopher Sánchez finishes runner-up.
The trio of Sánchez, Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo should give the Phillies a pretty formidable starting pitching trio heading into the playoffs.
But the advantage the Phillies have had over virtually every other team in the sport over the last half decade has been having two workhorse aces in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Granted, Sánchez has developed into one as well. But years of pitching 200-ish innings appears to have caught up to both Wheeler and Nola in the same season.
Prior to a right extremity blood clot forcing him to the injured list, Wheeler had a 2.71 ERA, 0.935 WHIP and 195 strikeouts over 149.2 innings pitched.
But in addition to having the blood clot removed, he also requires season-ending thoracic outlet decompression surgery, which will sideline him for six to eight months. So the Phillies will be without their ace—who has a 2.18 ERA in 70.1 postseason innings—this October.
Meanwhile, the only pitcher who logged more innings between 2018 and 2024 than Wheeler was Nola. But a right ankle sprain and right ribcage stress fracture sidelined him for three months this year. And he has a 6.78 ERA in 13 starts this season, leaving serious doubt about whether he can take the ball for the Phillies in the playoffs.
Again, Sánchez, Suárez and Luzardo are still a strong trio, but all three are left-handed. Wheeler or Nola could have split up the lefties in some way. Wheeler specifically would have given the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball heading into the playoffs. Now, while still among the better, it's not nearly as much of a strength.
Milwaukee Brewers
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Fatal Flaw: Health of stars
It's been a magical season for Pat Murphy's Brewers, who have the best record in baseball and appear poised to set a new franchise record for wins (96 is the current high water mark) en route to getting the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs.
However, health is one of the major things that could derail the Brewers winning their first World Series in club history.
Trade deadline pickup Shelby Miller—who had struggled since joining, but still had a 2.74 ERA over 48 games this season—has a right UCL sprain that's likely going to require Tommy John surgery. The 34-year-old is finished for the year.
All-Star closer Trevor Megill has a flexor tendon strain that isn't believed to be season-ending, but it has had him on the injured list since Aug. 24. It's not a guarantee that he returns this year.
Christian Yelich recently missed time with low back soreness, which is troubling considering he had microdiscectomy surgery last August, which ended his season.
Additionally, Brandon Woodruff is back after missing nearly two years following shoulder surgery and star rookie Jacob Misiorowski has struggled since returning from a left tibia contusion. Keeping both of those arms healthy and having starting depth behind Freddy Peralta is imperative.
The point of this article is kind of to be negative. The worst-case scenario isn't going to turn into reality for every team, but if there's a way that a magical season could have a disastrous ending in Milwaukee, it would probably be injury-related.
Chicago Cubs
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Fatal Flaw: Swoon of biggest stars
It's always been fair to wonder if the Cubs have enough starting pitching outside of Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd to make a World Series run. Their great lineup was supposed to be a given, but it hasn't been since the All-Star break.
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to play great defense in center field, but he has a .650 OPS since the break. He was never an on-base machine, making his offensive value pretty power dependent. But considering he posted an .847 OPS before the Midsummer Classic, his second-half mark since has been deflating.
Seiya Suzuki wasn't an All-Star, but he probably should have been. He hit 25 home runs, drove in 77 runs and posted an .867 OPS in the first half of the season. But since his All-Star snub, he has hit .197 with a .599 OPS.
Kyle Tucker also has gone from an .882 OPS in the first half to a .777 OPS since his fourth All-Star Game appearance. We've since learned that he's been playing with a hairline fracture in his right hand since June.
Tucker also missed a few games with a left calf issue over the weekend. Injuries at least explain the dip in production for him, but it doesn't make it burn any less for the Cubs, especially since he's set to become a free agent after this year and 2025 could wind up being his lone campaign with the club.
When president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer didn't add another frontline starting pitcher at the trade deadline, it felt like a bad omen for the Cubs. But nothing else is going to matter if their big bats don't turn things around.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Fatal Flaw: Pitching health
As far as the Dodgers go, their pitching is actually pretty healthy right now. But for as much as they do well, they don't get the benefit of the doubt on keeping their arms healthy.
Blake Snell has a 3.19 ERA in his first season with the Dodgers, but the two-time Cy Young Award winner missed more than three months of this season with left shoulder inflammation.
Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan all missed significant time this year and are hardly certain to be healthy in a few weeks based on their injury histories. That's not trying to jinx anyone, it's just reality. If the Dodgers' staff is healthy in the postseason, it could be really good. But the Dodgers have done a poor job protecting their starters in recent years.
One of the ways the Dodgers were able to overcome a lack of impact starting pitching to win the World Series a year ago was by having a great bullpen. But in addition to Tanner Scott having a nightmarish first season in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have health questions in the bullpen as well.
Blake Treinen, 37, missed nearly three months earlier this season with right forearm tightness.
Kirby Yates, 38, has had multiple IL stints—one for a right hamstring strain and the other for lower back pain—in his first season with the Dodgers.
Michael Kopech—a World Series hero last season—is back now, but only after a right shoulder impingement and right knee inflammation made his contract year basically a lost season.
Truthfully, pitching health is the biggest thing that could prevent Dave Roberts' club from repeating.
New York Mets
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Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching
With Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, the Mets have a lineup that's going to be good enough to make a second straight deep run in the playoffs.
Whether they have the starting pitching to do so is another story.
- David Peterson has a 5.21 ERA since being selected to his first All-Star team.
- Kodai Senga recently accepted a demotion to Triple-A after posting a 6.56 ERA in his first eight starts of the second half.
- Sean Manaea hasn't rediscovered his magic from the second half of last season, as he has a 5.60 ERA to show for 45 innings pitched this season.
- Clay Holmes has transitioned well to the starting rotation, but considering he's logged 147 innings this year after pitching 63 in each of the two prior years, it's fair to wonder how he'll hold up down the stretch.
What might need to happen for the Mets to make a World Series run is that Jonah Tong and/or Nolan McLean comes of age in a hurry this postseason. Or maybe some combination of the two rookies playing a role and the veterans getting back on track will have to take place.
San Diego Padres
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Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching staff
For all the moves president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made at the trade deadline, there are still serious questions about the starting rotation the Padres will bring into the postseason.
Nick Pivetta is having a career year, having posted a 2.85 ERA over 28 games after signing with the Padres during spring training. But after him, there's not much certainty.
It's been a suboptimal contract year for Dylan Cease. A year after he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting, he has a 4.81 ERA. In his defense, the 3.51 expected ERA and 3.67 FIP he has suggest he's been unlucky, but the actual results he's had have been disappointing.
Since returning from right elbow inflammation, Yu Darvish has looked every bit of 39, with a 5.75 ERA across his first 11 outings of the year.
Michael King has missed much of the year with right shoulder inflammation and left knee inflammation. He'll soon return, which is great news considering he has a 2.92 ERA since being acquired by the Padres. But what he'll look like coming off the injuries is unclear.
There's a scenario where everything comes together for the Padres in October and they're able to win the franchise's first World Series, but right now, you have to squint quite a bit to see it.
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