2025 NFL Week 1 Expert Picks

The 2025 NFL season is here, and the Bleacher Report expert panel returns with picks for every Week 1 matchup.

Our B/R expert panel, which includes analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton, and Brent Sobleski, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, is back after a profitable year.

As a group, they went 128-95-6 against the spread on consensus picks, and O'Donnell led the pack with a 149-115-8 record.

This year, we're throwing out consensus picks and getting a little more competitive. Our experts will provide dueling selections for each game, barring a unanimous decision.

The panelists have come out swinging in Week 1 with five lone-wolf picks. So, let's roll through the season-opening slate and win big in 2025.

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Sept. 3, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Giants QB Russell Wilson (left) and WR Malik Nabers

DK Line: Commanders (-5.5)

Hanford: Commanders (-5.5)

The Giants are 1-7 in their last eight home openers straight up or ATS. While I like New York's defense this season, the club returns 10 of 11 starters to an offense that struggled mightily last season, with the only fresh face being a probably-below-average Russell Wilson.

Jayden Daniels' sophomore season won't be a cakewalk, but he'll find a late TD here to cover. 

O'Donnell: Giants (+5.5)

Hellbent as I was to avoid taking the Giants in almost any game this season, here I am in Week 1 already shattering that promise.

They were awful last year and lost both games against Washington, but they kept it close in both matchups, losing by five or fewer points.

This line opened at -7.5, and the new-look Giants' "good preseason," along with increased optimism around a potentially fearsome defensive front, almost moved this line too much. Almost.

If Big Blue don't turn the ball over and the pass rush makes things uncomfortable for Daniels, the Giants can cover here. 

Predictions

Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Commanders: Hanford

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Rusty Jones

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (left) and WR Ja'Marr Chase

DK Line: Bengals (-5.5)

Hanford: Browns (+5.5)

The Bengals' early-season struggles are well-known at this point, and I have no real reason to believe that will change this season. Joe Burrow is still Joe Burrow, but the defense is likely going to be a disaster again this season.

The Browns have beaten the Bengals (with Burrow) in Cleveland in three of the last four matchups.

Cincinnati earns a tough win, but Joe Flacco does just enough to keep this one close.

Sobleski: Bengals (-5.5)

While the Browns are always up to play their in-state rival, it's difficult to imagine how a Flacco-led offense is going to keep pace with a healthy Burrow and Co.

For the first time since his rookie year, Burrow doesn't have some malady that should slow him to start the campaign after dealing with recoveries from a knee injury, appendicitis, a right calf strain and wrist surgery during the previous four season openers. 

Predictions

Bengals: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Browns: Hanford

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers

DK Line: Steelers (-3)

Davenport: Jets (+3)

The Justin Fields-led Jets offense didn't look good in the preseason. But we have no idea what the Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers will look like, because Mike Tomlin kept Rodgers and DK Metcalf back during exhibition games.

Between Pittsburgh's rust and the Jets being the Jets, this will be a low-scoring game. In that case, take the home 'dog.

Hanford: Steelers (-3)

If anyone has a game plan ready for Justin Fields, it should be the Steelers.

I don't expect either offense to come out with a bang in Week 1, but Pittsburgh's secondary has the CB play to neutralize New York's only dangerous target in Garrett Wilson, and the linebackers to keep an eye on Fields to keep him in the pocket.

The Steelers win in a typical, ugly fashion and cover.

Predictions

Steelers: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Jets: Davenport, Gagnon

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

DK Line: Cardinals (-6.5)

Knox: Cardinals (-6.5)

Let me start off by saying I rarely trust Kyler Murray, and I'm not going to trust the Arizona Cardinals on the road after watching them post a 2-6 away record in 2024.

You know what I trust less? Spencer Rattler behind a questionable offensive line with rookie Tyler Shough breathing down his neck.

This line is generous, but if Arizona can't beat New Orleans by a touchdown, Murray and Jonathan Gannon both deserve to be on the hot seat by Week 2.  

Moton: Cardinals (-6.5)

Don't overthink this one.

We're all on the Cardinals, who made a significant leap between 2023 and 2024 with Murray healthy, doubling their win total. They'll continue to progress with the addition of Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson and Josh Sweat on the defensive side of the ball.

That trio will stuff the run and force Rattler to throw 30-plus times, which is a recipe for a Cardinals blowout.

Predictions

Cardinals: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Jason Behnken

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (left) and QB Baker Mayfield

DK Line: Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gagnon: Falcons (+2.5)

I'd bet this up to +3 if possible, but the fact is Atlanta should have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the banged-up Bucs in its home opener.

Knox: Buccaneers (-2.5)

Logically, I should back the Falcons here.

Tristan Wirfs is out. Atlanta's new-look pass rush could be fantastic. The Falcons won both meetings in 2024 and will have the home-field edge.

However, I'm just not ready to jump on the Michael Penix Jr. hype train and Atlanta could see some moderate early-season regression.

The Bucs are legitimate contenders and know they can't let this one slip away. 

Predictions

Buccaneers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton

Falcons: Gagnon, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

DK Line: Colts (-1.5)

Davenport: Dolphins (+1.5)

Any rational human being should have a Combined Faith Factor of 0.0 in these teams doing anything in 2025. However, Tua Tagovailoa is healthy for now, and the Dolphins led the NFL in total offense with a healthy Tagovailoa two years ago.

Sobleski: Colts (-1.5)

The Colts coaching staff chose Daniel Jones as starting quarterback, which should raise red flags. However, the move was done with purpose based on his preparation, maturity and understanding of the game.

Shane Steichen was recently named one of the game's best offensive play-callers, per opposing defensive coordinators. As long as Jones works within the scheme, the Colts have enough talent on offense to overcome the rebuilding Dolphins at home. 

Predictions

Dolphins: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Colts: Gagnon, Sobleski

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

AP Photo/David Becker

Raiders QB Geno Smith

DK Line: Patriots (-2.5)

Moton: Raiders (+2.5)

Pete Carroll's Seattle Seahawks teams won the first game with a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on the schedule in six consecutive seasons between 2018 and 2023, which is an indication he prepares his clubs well for early starts.

Geno Smith plays better indoors than he does outdoors, but he's the better quarterback, and his pass-catchers might not see  Patriots' lead cornerback Christian Gonzalez in coverage.

Sobleski: Patriots (-2.5)

This selection comes down to two simple factors.

First, the Patriots did a nice job building up the roster this offseason, with the expectation of quarterback Drake Maye taking another step in Year 2, particularly against a suspect Raiders secondary.

Secondly, Las Vegas is traveling a couple of time zones with the dreaded 1 p.m. ET start time for this particular contest. 

Predictions

Raiders: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Patriots: Davenport, Hanford, Sobleski

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

DK Line: Jaguars (-3.5)

Knox: Panthers (+3.5)

This is a matchup between two head coaches who got their jobs because they helped Baker Mayfield reach a Pro Bowl. By the end of the year, one of these teams will be forced to recognize he is simply a good quarterback now.

To begin the year, I'll back the coach with a year of experience who has already shown he can help a former No. 1 overall pick play up to his draft status.

With all due respect to Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, Duval results are pending. 

Moton: Jaguars (-3.5)

The Carolina Panthers have lost eight of their last nine road outings by at least six points with Bryce Young as their starter. In the last week of the 2024 campaign, he led the team to a road win against the Atlanta Falcons, which started Michael Penix Jr. in his third pro game.

This week, the Panthers face an experienced quarterback and a head coach/play-caller who earned leaguewide respect last season.

Bet on Coen designing plays to torch a defense that has new starters at all three levels.

Predictions

Panthers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell

Jaguars: Gagnon, Moton, Sobleski

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman

Broncos QB Bo Nix

DK Line: Broncos (-7.5)

Davenport: Titans (+7.5)

Picking the NFL's worst team last year on the road against a Broncos squad some consider a Super Bowl contender might be considered unwise.

Denver is all but certainly going to win this game. Whether it will cover a spread that's north of a touchdown in Week 1 is another matter.

Moton: Broncos (-7.5)

Cam Ward will make his regular-season debut against a defense that gave up the third-fewest points last season and added an All-Pro caliber safety in Talanoa Hufanga and rookie first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron.

The Broncos also field a pass-rushing quartet that features Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers, who combined for 39.5 sacks last season.

Denver will dominate a rookie-led offense at home.

Predictions

Titans: Davenport

Broncos: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

DK Line: 49ers (-2.5)

Hanford: 49ers (-2.5)

This game is going to come down to who runs the ball more effectively, as the Seahawks' WR room isn't exactly scary and the 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk.

I also don't trust Seattle's offensive line to mesh right away in a new scheme against an aggressive 49ers front.

Expect Kyle Shanahan to lean on a healthy Christian McCaffrey and a newly acquired Brian Robinson Jr. to grind out a tough three-point win on the road. 

Sobleski: Seahawks (+2.5)

Sam Darnold faced the 49ers in Week 2 of last year, and he helped lead the Minnesota Vikings to a victory. He can do the same with Seattle.

Granted, Seattle's new starting quarterback doesn't have Justin Jefferson to throw to this time, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be up for a big day, especially against a rookie nickel in Upton Stout.

Furthermore, Deebo Samuel was the Niners' biggest playmaker during the previously mentioned contest, but he's no longer with the team.

Predictions

49ers: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

DK Line: Packers (-2.5)

Moton: Packers (-2.5)

It's shocking to stand alone among the panel on the Green Bay Packers.

This isn't an overreaction to the Micah Parsons trade. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, he's dealing with a back injury and may need epidural injections to suit up.

Be wary of the Detroit Lions' changes on both sides of the ball, given they have two new coordinators. They may not be as efficient offensively or stout defensively out of the gate.

The Packers' continuity pays off in their home opener.

O'Donnell: Lions (+2.5)

We don't yet know if Parsons will play for his new team on Sunday. Even if he does, he may not be fully fit. Jordan Love is also battling an injury and/or wearing a protective brace of some kind for the foreseeable future.

The strong, post-Parsons trade vibes of the Packers, and opening at home, are still very real, and the Lions have had questionable vibes surrounding them much of the offseason, but I won't bite.

The Lions are getting points, and that won't happen often, so we're taking them—except Moton, who is a howling Lone Wolf. 

Predictions

Lions: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Packers: Moton

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Rams QB Matthew Stafford

DK Line: Rams (-3)

Gagnon: Rams (-3)

The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Week 1 games, and I have little trust in a Texans team that is adapting to a lot of change following a messy 2024 campaign.

Obviously, this all assumes Matthew Stafford starts for L.A.

O'Donnell: Texans (+3)

There's a trend developing, at least for me, of taking legitimate points on the road in Week 1. The Rams' pass rush could easily cause problems for the Texans' offense—that's not lost on me—but I'm incapable of trusting a potentially hampered Stafford offense just yet.

This game isn't likely to be pretty and is tied for the second-lowest O/U total (43.5) of Week 1 for a reason. I'll take these points until I figure out what to do with these two squads.

Predictions

Texans: Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Rams: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (No. 8) and RB Derrick Henry (No. 22)

DK Line: Bills (-1.5)

Gagnon: Bills (-1.5)

I'm a little surprised to be in the minority here. The Bills haven't lost a regular-season home game since November 2023, and this is their last home opener at their beloved stadium.

Throw in reports that Lamar Jackson may not be 100 percent, and it's ridiculous that the Super Bowl co-favorites are laying less than a field goal in this spot.

Hanford: Ravens (+1.5)

I was taking whoever the underdog is in this one. It's too hard not to when the QBs are Jackson and Josh Allen.

Baltimore is 7-1 straight up and ATS on the road in prime time since 2022 and has covered in each of the last five regular-season meetings between the two.

This should be the game of the week from an entertainment standpoint, but I trust the Ravens defense to make a few more plays and push Baltimore to a win.

Predictions

Ravens: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Bills: Davenport, Gagnon

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Bears QB Caleb Williams

DK Line: Vikings (-1.5)

Gagnon: Vikings (-1.5)

There's nothing like being a lone wolf on a Monday night. I don't trust either quarterback, but I have a lot more faith in Minnesota's offensive line and defense, and there's more of an unknown element with J.J. McCarthy than with Caleb Williams.

O'Donnell: Bears (+1.5)

This is essentially a rookie debut for McCarthy.

As much as I believe the Vikings defense can cause problems for the Bears' new-look offense, which is still working out the kinks, I have even less faith in McCarthy going on the road in Week 1 and making something magical happen.

Did we learn nothing from Arch Manning's baptism by fire on the college football field last weekend? A home 'dog vs. a pseudo-rookie QB is just fine with me.   

Predictions

Vikings: Gagnon

Bears: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley

DraftKings Line: Eagles (-8.5)

Result: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20 (Dallas covers)

Davenport: Cowboys (+8.5)

Unless Jerry Jones trades CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott before kickoff, this spread feels inflated by the Micah Parsons move. Are the Cowboys a good team? Not really. Are they biggest spread of the week bad? Also no. This game screams, "back door cover on a late, meaningless Brandon Aubrey field goal."

O'Donnell: Eagles (-8.5)

You don't need advanced statistics to know the Cowboys will be worse off defensively without Micah Parsons. The defending champion Eagles should feel very good entering this matchup.

Big D is better equipped to go into a potential shootout with the return of Dak Prescott and new No. 2 target George Pickens, but Philly's defense is more likely to smother any potential Dallas breakout—especially if the new-look, Dallas running back stable can't find success rushing the football.

Nine points seems like a lot for an opening-week divisional game, but the Eagles are just that much better than the Cowboys right now. 

Predictions

Cowboys: Davenport, Sobleski

Eagles: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (in Brazil)

AP Photo/Ed Zurga

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

DK Line: Chiefs (-3)

Result: Chargers 27, Chiefs 21 (Los Angeles covers)

Gagnon: Chargers (+3)

It's a new season, but the Chiefs consistently failed to cover spreads against division rivals (and in general) last year. They're also more banged-up heading into this neutral-site opener.

Knox: Chiefs (-3)

Week 1 divisional matchups are always tough, but there are two reasons I like the Chiefs in this one. For one, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will be eager to remind everyone how an explosive Kansas City offense looks. Secondly, the Rashawn Slater injury is the sort of problem that will haunt L.A. in games like this one and could even derail the Chargers' playoff plans. 

Predictions

Chiefs: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Chargers: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski