Vibe Check for Every MLB Playoff-Hopeful with 3 Weeks Left Before 2025 Postseason
At the start of play on Friday, there were 18 Major League Baseball teams—10 in the American League; eight in the National League—that FanGraphs gave at least a two percent chance of making the postseason.
We know what the standings and what the World Series odds say about those teams, but what are the vibes telling us?
Can the Dodgers, Astros and Tigers wake up from their respective months-long slumbers with October just around the corner? Or have the two recently scorching hot offenses in New York turned a Subway Series into a strong possibility?
And in the suddenly competitive races for the final wild card spot in each league, who's trending in the right direction and who's hanging on for dear life?
We'll begin with the sure things and the long shots for the postseason before focusing more so on those teams in the middle who could be headed for photo finishes.
The 99 Percent Club (AL Division)
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These are the teams who are given at least a 99 percent chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. Though no one has officially punched a ticket to the playoffs yet, these teams are much more in "Who are we going to face in October?" and "Will we get a first-round bye?" mode than they are worried about whether they'll make it.
Detroit Tigers (Vibe Check: Scuffling)
Detroit has been in a seemingly constant state of just trying to keep its head above water for two months now, sitting at 22-26 dating back to July 9.
That's mostly due to dreadful pitching. Take Tarik Skubal's ever-solid numbers out of the mix and the rest of the Tigers' staff has collectively allowed 210 earned runs in its last 366.1 IP, good for an ERA of 5.16. Both Chris Paddack and Charlie Morton had impressive debuts after the trade deadline, but have since cratered. And in Jack Flaherty's last 14 starts, he has a 6.08 ERA and Detroit has a 3-11 record.
Goodness only knows who's going to start in the postseason aside from Skubal. Alex Cobb has yet to make his Tigers debut in 2025, and he might be the best candidate for Game 2 at this point.
New York Yankees (Vibe Check: Crushing)
By no means have Yankees fans forgotten all about their ire from less than a month ago, when a stretch of 31 losses in 51 games had the team on the brink of dropping out of the playoff picture and the fan base calling for the heads of Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman.
In winning 16 out of 22 games since Aug. 11, however, the Yankees scored the second-most runs in the majors (145) while allowing the fewest (83). Instead of clinging for life to the AL's No. 6 seed, they are back to within striking distance of the No. 1 seed, currently in the middle of a colossal 12-game stretch against Houston, Toronto, Detroit and Boston.
Regardless of where they end up seeded, though, they look the part of a team that's going to be a certified problem in October, with both Max Fried and Carlos Rodón back to mowing down the opposition while just about the entire lineup homers at will.
Toronto Blue Jays (Vibe Check: Hovering)
Toronto was a blistering inferno for a four-week stretch surrounding the All-Star Break, a 19-4 surge (coupled with the Yankees' aforementioned slump) turning what was a three-game deficit in the AL East into a 6.5-game lead. At one point in late July, the Blue Jays were even 1.5 games ahead of the Brewers for the best record in baseball, 21 games over .500.
Six weeks later, they are...22 games over .500.
The good news is they haven't been swept in a series since a mid-June trip to Philadelphia. But aside from that three-game sweep in Colorado by a preposterous combined score of 45-6 in early August, even two-game stretches in which Toronto looks like a World Series contender have been just about nonexistent dating back to July 27.
George Springer and Bo Bichette have been hot lately, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't been himself since that hamstring tightness a couple weeks ago, while the trio of unexpected stars from the first four months of the season (Addison Barger, Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes) has fizzled out completely. Can Toronto heat back up against a tough closing schedule to keep the Yankees and Red Sox at bay?
The 99 Percent Club (NL Division)
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These are the teams who are given at least a 99 percent chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. Though no one has officially punched a ticket to the playoffs yet, these teams are much more in "Who are we going to face in October?" and "Will we get a first-round bye?" mode than they are worried about whether they'll make it.
Chicago Cubs (Vibe Check: Lingering)
Feels like it was a long time ago that Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong were two of the top challengers to Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP, combining for four home runs and four stolen bases in August after entering the All-Star Break at 42 and 49, respectively.
And yet, thanks to a pitching staff that has been more formidable than was expected in the aftermath of losing Justin Steele early on, the Cubs were one of the first five teams to get to 80 wins and have yet to post a sub-.500 month, unless you want to count going 3-4 in March against them.
Perhaps the bats will wake back up down the stretch against a pretty weak remaining schedule.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Vibe Check: Sleepwalking)
On the morning of July 4, the Dodgers had the best record in baseball. They had won 18 of their last 23 games, Shohei Ohtani was back on the mound and they were gearing up to run away with home-field advantage, just like everyone was expecting heading into the year.
Despite also getting both Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow back from the IL since then, though, they have not been anything close to the same since suffering that 18-1 loss to Houston on Independence Day, sitting at 22-30 over their last 52 games, swept by both the Angels and the Pirates in the past month.
Because of the sheer volume of talent on that roster, Los Angeles is still the betting favorite to win the World Series; the belief being that they'll snap out of it and start playing with fire once the games "matter." But could this instead be a repeat of the 2022 New York Yankees, in which a team blazes through its first 80-something games, hibernates for three months and then gets swept out of the LCS?
Milwaukee Brewers (Vibe Check: Regressing)
To say that the Brewers are 'struggling' would be a bit much, as they just had to endure an absolute gauntlet of 19 games (11 on the road) in 18 days, all against teams who are presently no worse than one game below .500.
But after watching this squad go 53-16 from late May through mid-August—a 162-game pace of 124.4 wins over the course of almost half of the season—this recent, let's call it a 'prolonged blip' of 11 losses in 19 games felt quite out of place.
Simply put, Milwaukee has looked mortal for the first time in a long time.
They're still somewhat comfortably in first place in the race for home-field advantage through the World Series, but both Jacob Misiorowski and Brandon Woodruff have an ERA north of 8.00 since mid-August while Andrew Vaughn has freefallen back to earth after his absurd first 29 games with the Brew Crew.
Did Milwaukee peak too early, or can it right the ship for a strong finish?
Philadelphia Phillies (Vibe Check: Maintaining)
Losing Zack Wheeler for the year could have been a catastrophic blow. But at 11-7 since the last time he took the mound, the Phillies have pretty well taken his absence in stride. Even with a sweep at the hands of the Mets in there, they've managed to keep their NL East rivals from making that race any closer than it was in mid-August.
It helps that Aaron Nola was coming back from three months on the IL right as Wheeler was heading there. His first appearance back was disastrous, but the next two were a whole lot better as the Phillies have remained arguably the best rotation in baseball.
It also helps that Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Harrison Bader are all batting north of .300 since the beginning of August. Getting more than just Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner to show up on offense with any degree of consistency was always going to be key in the Phillies' quest to win it all. Combine that with how well the Jhoan Duran acquisition has panned out and they are very much still in business, even sans Wheeler.
The "So You're Telling Me There's a Chance" Club
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These are the teams who are given at least a one percent chance, but less than 10 percent chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. In each case, they're going to need a strong finish, and probably some external help.
Cincinnati Reds (2.3 percent chance)
Vibe Check: Collapsing
On August 19, Cincinnati improved to a season-best seven games above .500, staying hot on New York's tail for the NL's final wild card spot.
Eleven days later, the race was basically over, as the Reds dropped eight out of nine to plummet back to .500 and five games out of the playoff picture.
It's now or never to get back into this thing. Cincinnati is presently hosting the Mets and plays in San Diego Monday-Wednesday. Almost have to sweep one of those series to have any hope of catching one of those teams.
Cleveland Guardians (3.2 percent chance)
Vibe Check: Flailing
The Guards did finally put a few runs on the board this past Tuesday, exploding for seven against the Red Sox after a 16-game stretch in which they scored 40 total runs (2.5 per game) and were shut out four times. But they still lost that game to drop back below .500 and just about out of the conversation altogether.
Kansas City Royals (9.7 percent chance)
Vibe Check: Fading
Though Seattle has been doing seemingly everything in its power to give away its spot in the postseason field, Kansas City has shown little interest in seizing that opportunity.
The Royals did catch fire for a little while, winning 13 out of 19 from late July into mid-August, clawing back to within reasonable striking distance of the Boston/New York/Seattle trio of wild card hopefuls. But after what was an unusual stretch of offensive competence for this club, they've regressed to a low-scoring mess, managing three or fewer runs in eight of their last 14 games.
At just two games back of Seattle with a gigantic head-to-head series still to come (Sept. 16-18 in KC), the Royals certainly aren't toast. But what was a 1-in-3 chance two weeks ago has turned into more like 1-in-10 odds, now one of five teams battling for that final spot in the AL half of the bracket.
San Francisco Giants (4.3 percent chance)
Vibe Check: Raging
Lo and behold, Rafael Devers playing well is a good thing for San Francisco.
In his first 57 games on this roster, the former Red Sox star had a modest triple-slash of .226/.336/.415 as the Giants went 20-37. But Devers had a 1.244 OPS during SFG's recent outburst of 10 wins in 11 games, including hitting the home run against the Rockies that showed there's still some literal fight left in this team.
If there is any hope left for them heading into the final week of the regular season, ending with a homestand against the Cardinals and Rockies could be just what the doctor ordered.
Tampa Bay Rays (9.9 percent chance)
Vibe Check: Surging
It sure looked like the Rays were toast two weeks ago, falling to six games below .500 (61-67) for the first time all season. At that point, they were seven games behind the Mariners, their odds of winning the 2026 draft lottery better than their odds of making the 2025 playoffs.
But between Junior Caminero mashing his way to 40 home runs, Ian Seymour becoming an unexpected key cog in the starting rotation and a couple of head-to-head victories over the M's, maybe there's still a prayer here after all, back to within two games of the M's after a seven-game winning streak.
Boston Red Sox
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Postseason Odds: 97.1 percent
Vibe Check: Lurking
This has basically been Boston's vibe all season long.
Save for ending Opening Day in a three-way tie with New York and Baltimore, the Red Sox have not held even a share of first place in the AL East all season. But save for facing a 10.5-game deficit after a loss to the Yankees on June 6, they've never exactly been out of the conversation, either.
Even when they caught fire for 21 wins in 27 games from July 4 through August 5, it was Toronto who surged into first place in the division at New York's expense, Milwaukee who we couldn't stop marveling at with an even more impressive stretch of 21 wins in 26 games and both the All-Star Break and trade deadline rumblings hogging most of the national spotlight.
Nevertheless, there sits Boston, as it has on a daily basis for the past month, one big week away from possibly surging to the AL's No. 1 seed, arguably the most dangerous team the American League has to offer next month when the lack of an even remotely reliable No. 4 or No. 5 starter is no longer a problem.
And yet, because Roman Anthony recently hit the IL with Wilyer Abreu also working his way back from a few weeks on the shelf, people just keep finding a way to overlook these lurkers.
Houston Astros
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Postseason Odds: 92.1 percent
Vibe Check: Fighting
On the one hand, Yordan Alvarez is back and he actually looks like Yordan Alvarez this time.
When he landed on the IL in early May, he had a .646 OPS for the year. Between his early struggles and subsequent 100-game absence, Houston's offense has been as pedestrian as we've seen in at least a decade. But in nine games played since his return, Alvarez has an OPS of 1.380 and this offense feels much more formidable as a result.
On the other hand, the good vibes from his return sure went up in smoke in a hurry with the whole Framber Valdez controversy.
Even before that ill-fated pitch, though, things had been trending in the wrong direction for the Astros for a while now. After peaking at 55-35 (1.5 games behind Detroit for the best record in baseball) a week before the All-Star Break, they've lost 29 of their last 51 games, outscored by nearly 60 runs.
Injuries were certainly a factor. We've already talked about Alvarez's lengthy absence. Jeremy Peña missed all of July. Isaac Paredes has been out for six weeks. Jake Meyers hasn't played in two months. This rotation was in shambles beyond Valdez and Hunter Brown until a few weeks ago. And though they've only blown one save since Josh Hader hit the IL in early August, not having him to pitch the ninth inning is just another way in which this doesn't feel like the inevitable Houston dynasty of yore.
They've managed to maintain their AL West lead, but only because Seattle's play has been so completely uninspired in recent weeks. With six games against Texas, three against Seattle and three in Toronto within the next 17 days, the Astros simply cannot afford to continue their downward spiral.
New York Mets
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Postseason Odds: 95.2 percent
Vibe Check: Mashing
When the New York Mets signed Juan Soto and re-signed Pete Alonso while half-heartedly addressing the loss of two of their primary starting pitchers from last season, it seemed like simply out-slugging the opposition was going to be their most consistent path to victory in 2025.
Through their first 117 games, however, that Mets offense was nothing special, averaging 4.3 runs per contest, barely outscoring the Miami Marlins by a year-to-date margin of 507 to 504.
Out of seemingly nowhere, that lineup has become a wrecking ball, averaging 7.3 runs and triple-slashing a teamwide .313/.388/.555 dating back to August 11.
Soto has nine home runs and nine stolen bases in those 22 games. Francisco Lindor is at five and 10, respectively, batting .380. Alonso and Mark Vientos have combined for 15 taters. Basically everyone except for Cedric Mullins has contributed multiple home runs and a batting average north of .280.
They aren't just beating up on bottom feeders, either. In their three-game series against the Mariners, Tigers and Phillies, the Mets scored 19, 24 and 25 runs, respectively, going a combined 7-2 against those likely playoff teams.
Overall, though, they've managed just a 12-10 record during this stretch of much slugging, because the pitching staff—with the exception of rookie Nolan McLean and All-Star closer Edwin Díaz—leaves very much to be desired.
But if you prefer 14-12 roller coasters over 1-0 pitchers' duels in October, Mets games are liable to quite the source of postseason entertainment, now that they've become the offensive force they were meant to be.
San Diego Padres
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Postseason Odds: 96.9 percent
Vibe Check: Oscillating
Since racing out to an MLB-best 14-3 record to start the season. San Diego's campaign has been: two steps forward, two steps backward, repeat ad infinitum.
Just since the All-Star Break, the Padres have had three separate five-game winning streaks, but also three separate four-game losing skids.
If your most vivid memory of this team was the 17-game stretch from late-July into early August in which the Padres swept the Mets and Giants while putting together yet another 14-3 tenth of the season, you probably still consider them one of the top threats to win it all.
Conversely, if you think the "true" Padres to be the ones who entered Friday having lost eight of 10, including getting swept at home by the Orioles and losing a series to a Twins squad that was stripped and sold for parts at the trade deadline, you might be wondering how in the world San Diego is still this comfortably in the projected postseason field.
In theory, another positive surge is nigh, as the Dads have just begun a 16-game stretch in which 10 of those games are against either the Rockies (seven) or White Sox (three). While they have no games remaining against the Dodgers, that is a major opportunity to close what is still a surmountable two-game gap in the NL West.
Although, with Xander Bogaerts (fractured foot) possibly done for the rest of the regular season, we shall see what sort of momentum this team can cobble together down the stretch.
Seattle Mariners
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Postseason Odds: 75.5 percent
Vibe Check: WTF-ing
After the trade deadline, everything was coming up Mariners.
They won in Eugenio Suárez's first game back on the roster, which kick-started a surge of 10 wins in 11 games. At that point, they were 14 games above .500, tied with the Astros for the AL West lead, three games back of the No. 1 seed and pretty much everyone's pick to win the ALCS.
Since then, Seattle has almost the worst record in baseball at 6-14, and has been directly responsible for keeping both Cleveland and Tampa Bay alive by losing those recent series.
For a glass half full perspective on this rough patch, though, we don't even need to leave the AL West.
At virtually this exact same juncture two years ago, the Texas Rangers were even more of a trainwreck than Seattle has been. On the morning of August 16, 2023, they were 72-48, leading the division and two games back for the No. 1 seed. After losing 16 of their next 20 games, they had fallen to third in the division and 1.5 games out of the postseason picture. But they finished strong, snuck into a wild card spot and won the World Series.
Can the Mariners put together a similar rally? With a pitching staff that has been (save for Bryan Woo) all sorts of bad lately?
Logan Gilbert has a 5.31 ERA during the 20 games in question, and he has been one of their better starters. Bryce Miller is at 5.63, George Kirby at 7.78 and Luis Castillo just keeps getting shelled to the tune of a 10.06 ERA. And, as a whole, the bullpen posted a 5.45 ERA that ranked fourth-worst in the majors.
They certainly should be better than they have been, largely the exact same pitching staff that racked up 92 quality starts and allowed the fewest runs in the majors one year ago. But we'll see if they can re-harness any of that magic.
Texas Rangers
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Postseason Odds: 12.7 percent
Vibe Check: Defying
It makes no sense that the Rangers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past two weeks.
On August 21, they took three losses in one day, falling to 63-66 in an L at Kansas City in which both Marcus Semien (broken foot) and Evan Carter (fractured wrist) suffered season-ending injuries. The following day, Nathan Eovaldi made what is expected to be his final appearance of the season due to a rotator cuff injury. And a few days after that, Corey Seager underwent an appendectomy, from which he may or may not be able to return this season.
No matter, apparently. The Rangers immediately bounced back from the aforementioned triple loss to win nine of their next 10 games, ending Labor Day just a game and a half behind Seattle for the AL's final wild card spot.
Forced into action by the Carter and Semien injuries, rookies Michael Helman and Cody Freeman went a combined 12-for-38 (.316) with four home runs in those 10 games. They scooped Dylan Moore off waivers when Seager hit the shelf, who has gone 3-for-7 with Texas after tallying three hits in his final 67 ABs with Seattle. And since inheriting Eovaldi's spot in the rotation, Jacob Latz has at least given the Rangers a fighting chance in both of his starts with four runs allowed in 9.2 innings of work.
Can they possibly keep it going through the gauntlet ahead, though?
Catching fire against the Guardians, Angels and A's is one thing. They've got the Astros, Brewers, Mets and Astros again on tap.
But if their fire is legit, that's the perfect time for that double-edged sword. The Rangers are five games back of the Astros, but we could be headed for one heck of a fantastic finish in the AL West and wild card races if Texas takes at least four of those six games.
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