Last-Minute Advice on Fantasy Football's Biggest Sleepers, Busts and League Winners

Fantasy football draft season is in full swing with the preseason over, final cuts done and the 2025 NFL Kickoff game just days away.

It's time for managers to lock in. Developing a draft strategy, targeting top veterans in the early rounds, avoiding potential busts, and identifying key sleepers for the later rounds will put you in a much better position to win your league.

Not ready for your league's draft? You're not alone—this last-minute primer will guide you through the key strategies for draft day.

Fantasy points, rankings, average draft position (ADP) and other stats courtesy of FantasyPros using PPR data.

Draft Strategies

AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Know your League Format

It's imperative to know the format of your league when it comes to making draft-day decisions. Scoring systems and roster sizes can make all the difference when it comes to evaluating players and maximizing the value of your picks.

Before going into the draft, open up your league settings and poke around. The first thing to check is how many points a reception is worth (if any) and then seek out rankings that match this.

In a full PPR format, a receiver with a high number of catches can still provide great value, even if they aren't a big scorer. However, their impact drops in half-PPR or standard leagues.

Next, make note of the roster sizes and number of startable players at each position. Receivers will have a tad more value in formats where you must start at least three, while a two WR league makes running backs a higher priority in the draft.

Pay close attention if your league uses a superflex or two-QB format. Quarterbacks become much more valuable, and rankings will differ significantly from standard leagues.

Elite quarterbacks go from third-round valuations to top picks and even below-average QBs who generally aren't drafted in standard formats become a commodity in this system.

Youth and Upside

Some of the best value a fantasy manager can find is by drafting rookies and other young players who haven't seen much NFL action.

While their lack of proven production may scare off many managers, smart ones will capitalize on the potential and upside to get the best bang for their buck.

Last year alone, players such as Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Bo Nix, Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers all exceeded expectations and posted incredible finishes relative to their modest average draft position.

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

There's no doubt more rapid fantasy risers will emerge in 2025. Potential candidates for these types of instant breakout performances include Omarion Hampton, Emeka Egbuka, Tyler Warren and many others.

Try to get at least two high-upside rookies in your lineup before the late rounds of your draft.

Don't Reach For Kickers and D/ST

The later it gets in a draft, the more you'll want to fill what should be the last remaining holes in your starting lineup: kicker and defense. Resist the urge to do this any earlier than the final two rounds, though, as there is little value in taking either position prior to that point.

Kickers and defense generally don't have the same type of year-to-year stability of positional players. A top kicker in 2024 could end up being a bust this season, while some of the league's best defenses in 2025 may have been among the worst last year.

Rather than reach at these volatile positions, stay patient and focus on Week 1 matchups. When you get on the clock in the penultimate round, pick the most favorable K or DST matchup on the board and then repeat the process for the other position to close out your draft.

You can even safely avoid drafting these positions altogether if you want a few more days to keep some deep sleepers on your roster.

Just don't forget to drop a player and fill the position via a free-agency addition before your lineup locks later in the week.

Top Sleeper Picks

AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

QB11 / No. 94 Overall

Dak Prescott is the best value quarterback on the board this year. Despite being only a year removed from finishing as the QB3, he is only being drafted as the QB11 in 2025. While injuries and poor play made him a fantasy non-factor in 2024, he's fully healthy and ready to reemerge as an asset.

If you don't land one of the elite signal-callers coming off the board several rounds earlier, stay patient and scoop the Cowboys passer to get similar production at a fraction of the cost.

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders

RB32 / No. 96 Overall

The Commanders have found a diamond in the rough in JCM. The seventh-round rookie had a scintillating offseason, one that allowed Washington to feel comfortable moving on from incumbent starter Brian Robinson Jr.

Now poised to share the backfield with veteran Austin Ekeler, Croskey-Merritt looks to be one of the best possible picks you can make in the eighth or ninth round top fill a RB hole.

WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR39 / No. 86 Overall

The Buccaneers passing attack was one of the league's most potent in 2024 and that shouldn't change despite the departure of Liam Coen this offseason. It could be even more dangerous this season due to the addition of Emeka Egbuka, the playmaking first-round pick who is poised to push an aging Mike Evans for the top spot in the pecking order.

If Egbuka shows out during Chris Godwin Jr.'s absence—he's likely to remain out until October—he'll solidify a spot as a fantasy WR2 worthy of starting every week.

TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

TE10 / No. 84 Overall

It's not easy to make a rapid transition from college to the pros at the tight end spot, but Tyler Warren has all the tools to become the next first-year star to follow in the footsteps of Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers.

With the Colts having an underwhelming quarterback situation, the versatile Warren could emerge as Daniel Jones' safety net and choice red-area target.

Even if Indy's offense largely struggles, Warren could be a top-five tight end due to sheer volume alone.

Potential Busts

AP Photo/Doug Murray

Tyreek Hill

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

QB9 / No. 83 Overall

Any potential Kyler Murray manager should be wary that there is great potential the Cardinals signal-caller posts another disappointing fantasy season.

Since finishing as the QB2 during his standout 2020 rookie season, Murray has not finished inside the top-nine again.

Despite being the QB10 in each of his last two healthy seasons and finishing well below that during injury-plagued campaigns, Murray is still being drafted as the QB9 in 2025.

With head coach Jonathan Gannon seeking to win with a ferocious defense and strong running game, Murray will be average at best. Factor in his injury woes and there's far more potential he finishes outside the top 10 than within it.

RB Breece Hall, New York Jets

RB16 / No. 37 Overall

The Jets have a new head coach in Aaron Glenn, and this regime has no prior investment in Hall. He'll have to earn the lead back role rather than being handed it by default.

AP Photo/Angelina Katsanis

Given he's regressed each season since his breakout rookie campaign was cut short by injury—Hall's YPC fell from 5.8 in 2022 to a pedestrian 4.2 in 2024—and the team has two capable backs behind him in Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, Hall could see his snap count dip back below 50 percent for the first time in two seasons.

It's not the usage managers want to see from a fringe third-round fantasy pick.

WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

WR13 / No. 31 Overall

After making nine consecutive Pro Bowl appearances and five All-Pro teams to open his career, Hill fell off for the first time in 2024.

Despite starting all 17 games, the once-unstoppable playmaker tallied just 81 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns on 123 targets.

With Hill now entering an age-31 campaign, it seems the combination of Miami's offensive regression and Father Time will keep him from making another run at the single-season receiving record.

He's more of a mid-range fantasy WR2 at best with the possibility of injuries to either him or Tua Tagovailoa dropping his value even further. Considering he's being drafted just outside the top 30, you won't get a good return on investment here.

TE Evan Engram, Denver Broncos

TE8 / No. 79 Overall

Engram's days of being a top-five tight end are behind him. After finishing as the TE5 and TE2 in back-to-back years between 2022-23, the veteran went on to suffer through an injury-plagued 2024 season in which he appeared in just nine contests.

He wasn't putting up big numbers when healthy, either, with his 9.9 fantasy points per game tying Pat Freiermuth for the 13th-most at the position.

Now with the Broncos, Engram's prospects of finishing in the top 10 look bleak. Denver rarely utilized the position in the passing attack last year, with starter Adam Trautman finishing as a concerning TE53 with a lowly 43.8 fantasy points despite appearing in all 17 games.

Bo Nix might look for Engram for some touchdowns here and there, but he'll be maddeningly inconsistent and not worth an ADP where you can still find potential starters and quality depth.

League-Winning Lottery Tickets

AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.

Kyle Pitts

QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots

QB16 / No. 124 Overall

The Patriots overhauled their offense in wake of a disappointing 4-13 campaign, massively upgrading the offensive line, running game and receiving corps to provide Drake Maye with a far more competent supporting cast than he had as a rookie.

This dream offseason has opened the door for the Pro Bowler to emerge as a fantasy star in 2025.

While Maye was only the QB23 last season, he's a great bet to finish inside the top 12 and has top-five upside if all goes to plan in New England.

Given his late-round ADP, he is the ideal backup QB fantasy selection, one who could emerge as your weekly starter or high-value trade candidate.

RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars

WR48 / No. 148 Overall

Liam Coen helped the Buccaneers' offense thrive last year, including the breakout of rookie RB Bucky Irving. Now as head coach in Jacksonville, Coen could help Bhayshul Tuten become the next rookie to exceed his modest ADP.

Although he has well-documented fumbling problems, the fourth-rounder was handpicked by the new regime to be a playmaking weapon in Coen's scheme.

AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman

Factor in the struggles both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. experienced last year and there's a real chance Tuten becomes Jacksonville's RB1 and a top-12 fantasy performer at the position should he get those ball security issues under control.

WR Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans

WR55 / No. 149 Overall

The Texans have a clear-cut superstar as their WR1 in Nico Collins, but the No. 2 spot is still up for grabs. This high-potential fantasy role may eventually belong to Jayden Higgins, the second-round rookie who C.J. Stroud will quickly come to trust for his sticky hands and crisp route-running abilities.

Although Higgins may start out the year behind Christian Kirk on the depth chart, the 6'4", 215-pounder should still find himself on the WR4 radar right out of the gate. Given his upside to become a high-end fantasy WR2 if and when he takes the second spot in Houston's pecking order, this is a lottery ticket well-worth nabbing in the latter stages of the draft.

TE Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons

TE14 / No. 132 Overall

After emerging as a breakout rookie in 2021, Pitts has gone on to underwhelm in each of the last three seasons.

This consistent disappointment is finally being reflected in his ADP and TE2 draft status, a fall-off that ultimately makes the Atlanta tight end a fantastic under-the-radar value choice.

Still just 24 years old and brimming with upside, the athletic pass-catcher looks healthy and has a competent quarterback to work with for the first time since he was paired with Matt Ryan in his initial NFL season.

If the Michael Penix Jr.-Pitts battery lives up to its potential, a TE5 or better finish will be well within reach.