Arch Manning's Odds Fall, New Co-Favorites Revealed for No. 1 Pick in 2026 NFL Draft

Arch Manning and the Texas offense managed to score just seven points in Saturday's 14-7 loss to Ohio State, and the quarterback's odds to be the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NFL draft took quite the fall as a result.

While he opened as the favorite to be the top pick following the 2025 NFL draft at +220 (bet $100 to win $220) and entered the season still in pole position, that is no longer the case.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday at 1:30 p.m. ET, Manning is now the fifth-most likely to be the No. 1 pick at +700. He and everyone else are looking up at LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State's Drew Allar:

• Garrett Nussmeier, +350
• Drew Allar, +350
• LaNorris Sellers, +500
• Cade Klubnik, +550
• Arch Manning, +700

Nussmeier also leads the Heisman odds after leading LSU to a victory over Clemson, while Manning is seventh at +1,600. Clemson's Klubnik isn't far behind the leader despite his head-to-head loss:

• Garrett Nussmeier, +700
• Cade Klubnik, +1,000
• Jeremiah Smith, +1,200
• John Mateer, +1,400
• Carson Beck, +1,400
• LaNorris Sellers, +1,500
• Arch Manning, +1,600

Manning's debut was the most anticipated of Week 1 of the college football season after he spent much of the 2024 campaign behind Quinn Ewers on the depth chart.

Not only was he the quarterback of the No. 1 team in the country and the favorite to be the top pick in the draft, but he is also the nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning. As if that wasn't enough, he was playing on the road against the reigning national champions.

Ohio State's defense and overall atmosphere got the best of the highly regarded quarterback, though, who went 17-of-30 for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception while struggling to establish a rhythm. 

He missed open receivers a number of times and struggled to handle the Buckeyes' changing defensive front and secondary that features another likely high draft pick in Caleb Downs (+2,500).

Fortunately for Manning and Texas, there is still plenty of time to turn things around as the season progresses. The Longhorns won't be facing the reigning champions every week, and the signal-caller figures to improve with more experience.

The team's next three games are against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston State before showdowns against Florida and rival Oklahoma, which will give Manning a chance to settle into his new starting role before those season-defining contests. If he performs well in those contests, he could find himself right back atop the NFL draft odds.

That is, if he even plans on going to the NFL.

His grandfather, Archie Manning, told Texas Monthly he will return to school in 2026, although Arch told reporters, "I don't know where he got that from. He texted me to apologize about that. I'm really just taking it day by day right now."

His first test in that day-by-day approach didn't go according to plan, but Manning will still have plenty of opportunities to play his way back into the Heisman Trophy and No. 1 pick conversations.