Arch Manning, More 2026 NFL Draft Prospects with Most to Prove After CFB Season Debut

Texas' Arch Manning and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza received significant hype prior to the start of their 2025 college football season, but both disappointed to open the campaign.

The ripple effects could drastically shake up how the 2026 NFL draft class is ultimately viewed.

Part of the NFL draft evaluation process is projection. Where a prospect eventually lands is based on what he can become, not what he is at that exact point in time. Once games start being played, potential can be overruled by reality.

Upside remains a significant part of the process, but individuals must show they are trending in the right direction. Manning, Mendoza and a handful of others were viewed as top-end prospects prior to Week 1 before failing to live up to expectations. Now, they have a lot to prove over the course of the season.

DL LT Overton, Alabama

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The Alabama Crimson Tide suffered the weekend's biggest upset, because the Florida State Seminoles dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Historically, Alabama were the bullies at the line of scrimmage, at least during the Nick Saban era. The Seminoles, who finished with only two wins last season, found themselves again and played with a level of physicality not seen since the days of Bobby Bowden.

Because of how Florida State won this contest, a pair of highly regarded Alabama prospects find themselves on this list, starting with defensive lineman LT Overton.

Overton is supposed to serve as the tone-setter for the Crimson Tide defense. After all, he's a 6'5", 283-pound prospect capable of playing up and down the line of scrimmage. But he failed in both phases of the game on Saturday.

The Seminoles won the war at the point of attack. Overton is a physical defender, yet he and his front-seven mates failed to stop their ground attack and surrendered 230 rushing yards.

Is Overton to blame by himself? Of course not. Yet he didn't make a play of consequence until deep into the third quarter with a tackle for loss.

Furthermore, the 20-year-old isn't the most explosive option when working off the edge. Alabama lacks a legitimate edge-rusher and it shows. Overton isn't that player.

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide registered one sack against Florida State, which came courtesy of a safety, Keon Sabb, flying into the backfield.

Overton is young, physical and versatile. At the same time, this initial showing looks bad for everyone involved with the Crimson Tide defense. As for the individual, he must show where he's going to consistently win at the next level because he failed to do so at the onset of his senior campaign.

OL Cayden Green, Missouri

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Missouri's Cayden Green is a guard, not an offensive tackle.

He entered this season as the potential top-rated guard prospect. However, the Tigers coaching staff decided to move its most talented blocker to the blind side after starting 17 straight games at left guard.

"All summer and spring, I've been working right guard, left tackle and left guard and a little bit of center," Green told reporters.

The 6'5", 324-pound lineman was originally recruited as an offensive tackle by the Oklahoma Sooners before transferring to Missouri.

Green added: "I played my whole freshman year pretty much at guard. All the valuable reps were at guard.. So, obviously, I was a lot more comfortable inside (during his sophomore season), and it was also a new offense, a new scheme, and even a new conference. So I feel like now I know what to expect, so that'll help me with the transition."

Central Arkansas doesn't have a pass-rusher the caliber of David Walker, who was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this year's fourth round. Yet Green still looked extremely uncomfortable at his new position. He surrendered a sack and two pressures while also being called for holding once. The movement skills that serve him well along the interior didn't translate, either.

Maybe Mizzou's coaches believe Green helps the team the most by playing left tackle. Unless he shows dramatic improvement against better competition, he'll be projected as an NFL guard.

QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

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Fernando Mendoza became a preseason favorite as a candidate for QB1 and the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft.

The projection was based on the traits seen during his time with the Cal Golden Bears, where he showed an aptitude working from the pocket while throwing with anticipation and accuracy.

Mendoza transferred to Indiana this offseason, which elevated the projection to such lofty standards because of the success the Hoosiers offense experienced last season.

With the immobile Kurtis Rourke behind center, the Hoosiers were a top-two scoring offense in 2024 behind only the Miami Hurricanes, who were led by 2025 No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward.

In Mendoza's first contest wearing crimson and cream, he wasn't the same quarterback. He failed to get into a rhythm and often wasn't on the same page with his wide receivers.

The 21-year-old prospect completed under 60 percent of his passes for 193. To be fair, the numbers would have looked much better had wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. not dropped a near-certain 55-yard touchdown pass.

Then again, Mendoza missed a wide-open Lebron Bond down the sideline in the fourth quarter for what could have been another huge gain and a likely touchdown. The two throws basically cancel each other out.

Indiana still beat Old Dominion handily, but Mendoza needs time to get comfortable in the offensive scheme and build a better rapport with each of his targets if he's going to be counted among next year's top-tier QB prospects.

OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama

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Alabama left tackle Kadyn Proctor has the type of size and movement skills that harken back to the days of Jonathan Ogden and Bryant McKinnie. He's a mountainous 6'7", 366-pound offensive line prospect.

His performance against a revamped Florida State Seminoles defense left a lot to be desired, though.

The 2026 NFL draft class could be loaded with offensive tackle talent in the first-round conversation. Miami's Francis Mauigoa, Oregon's Isaiah World and Utah's bookends, Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano, are early contenders, though Proctor has generally been viewed as OT1 going into this season.

Against the Seminoles, Proctor overset, didn't play with good balance and struggled throughout the afternoon, whether he was facing speed or power. He gave up clean wins to pass-rusher and got called for a false start on a fourth-quarter 4th-and-1. His performance proved to be far too erratic for a projected elite tackle prospect.

Proctor still displays awesome power and grip-strength, but the key to being an elite NFL offensive lineman is consistent repeatable technique. All the size and length in the world isn't effective if a blocker isn't sound in his assignments. That level of inconsistency is a frightening proposal for NFL teams without elite offensive line coaches to round off the rough edges.

QB Arch Manning, Texas

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Arch Manning is the most heralded prospect in decades because of his family lineage and status as a quarterback phenom.

Even so, the football-watching world waited two years before Manning finally took over the Longhorns offense in his third. The wait wasn't worth it based on Saturday's performance when the spotlight shined brightly.

Texas entered the 2025 campaign as the nation's top-ranked team, and Manning was viewed as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and become next year's No. 1 overall draft pick.

When asked about the pressure being placed on the team prior to the start of the season, Manning said: "The target's not on our back. We have a red dot on everyone else."

The hunter became the prey against the reigning national champions. Ohio State beat Texas 14-7, and Manning looked every bit the new starter facing an elite opponent on the road with a raucous crowd.

The junior prospect completed 17 of 30 passes for 170 yards, a touchdown and an interception (with a second overturned by review).

Throughout the contest, Steve Sarkisian's approach became apparent. The Texas head coach felt the Longhorns held an advantage in the trenches and continued to lean on his run game. He didn't put the ball in Manning's hand until late on.

While an argument can be made that the quarterback should have had an expanded role, his performance didn't warrant one.

Coming out of this contest, less concern should be centered on a loss against a great adversary than Manning looking too amped up at times. He'll need to settle as the weeks progress, specifically by doing a better job with his mechanics.

Too many throws were off or outright missed because of poor footwork. Too often, he was just trying to whip the ball to receivers instead of letting his feet take him to the open man and drive the pass into the available targets. He made his receivers work far too hard instead of just delivering the football.

Manning must get into a rhythm and put up numbers against inferior opponents over the next three weeks, then prepare himself for SEC play. He has the talent to stack strong weeks, bounce back and still be everything he was initially projected to be. He simply didn't get off to a good start to achieve those goals.