Latest 2025 MLB Playoff Seeding and World Series Predictions With 5 Weeks to Go

With roughly 30 games (per team) remaining in the 2025 Major League Baseball season, we now officially know something about the upcoming postseason field: The Colorado Rockies will not be part of it. Between their loss to Pittsburgh and New York's win over Atlanta on Saturday, that inevitability became a mathematical impossibility.

Beyond that, though, nothing is yet set in stone, even the league-leading Brewers and Tigers both still nowhere close to punching their tickets.

After more than 80 percent of the regular season, we do have a pretty good idea what that October bracket will look like. But much is still up for grabs.

Will both New York teams maintain their tenuous grip on a playoff spot, or could one or both be overtaken by a small-market, Central-division squad?

Do the Dodgers or Padres come out on top of the NL West? Will it be Houston or Seattle claiming AL West glory?

And, of course, the biggest question of all: Who wins the whole kit and kaboodle?

American League East

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Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Current Standings:

1. Toronto Blue Jays (76-55)
2. Boston Red Sox (71-60, 5 GB)
3. New York Yankees (70-60, 5.5 GB)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (63-67, 12.5 GB)
5. Baltimore Orioles (60-70, 15.5 GB)

Though the Blue Jays have been in sole possession of first place since their four-game sweep of the Yankees just before the Fourth of July and presently have a somewhat comfortable five-game lead, difficulty of remaining schedule could make things very interesting here down the stretch.

In addition to the massive Blue Jays at Yankees series coming up in two weekends, those two teams each have a series remaining against Houston, Boston, Minnesota and Baltimore.

But while the Blue Jays otherwise need to deal with MLB-best Milwaukee, wild card hopefuls Cincinnati and Kansas City and seven games against a better-than-its-record Tampa Bay squad, the Yankees have seven games left against the AL-worst White Sox, three against woeful Washington, an additional four-game series against Baltimore and a three-game set at home against Detroit.

Per Tankathon's calculations, Toronto's remaining SOS ranks almost toughest among American League teams while New York's ranks easiest. And considering next weekend will feature Blue Jays-Brewers while the Yankees get the White Sox, this thing could swing in a hurry.

Plus, you know, don't sleep on the Red Sox, who just chopped the Yankees down to size in their own home. Boston did recently drop eight out of 12 games while going what felt like 0-for-500 with runners in scoring position. (It was actually 12-for-70 in the losses, but going 0-for-13 in that 11-inning loss to Baltimore was a back-breaker.) But more than 60 percent of their remaining schedule is against sub-.500 competition, and half of the games against winning clubs are the big opportunities against New York and Toronto.

This could end up being the 2025 version of that chaotic three-team cluster atop the AL West in 2023, but with the caveat that there's a good chance that all three make it into the playoffs.

Predicted Playoff Teams: Toronto (No. 2 seed), New York (No. 4 seed) and Boston (No. 5 seed)

American League Central

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Detroit's Tarik Skubal

Current Standings:

1. Detroit Tigers (78-54)
2. Kansas City Royals (67-64, 10.5 GB)
3. Cleveland Guardians (64-65, 12.5 GB)
4. Minnesota Twins (59-71, 18 GB)
5. Chicago White Sox (47-83, 30 GB)

Things got pretty uncomfortable for the Tigers for a hot minute there, when an 8-17 record from July 9-August 9 turned Detroit's 14-game cushion atop this division into merely a five-game lead. However, the Tigers won 11 of their next 13 to right the ship and turn this back into (by far) the least competitive race among the six divisions.

Could either Kansas City or Cleveland mess around and snag a wild card spot, though?

The gap between Boston as the current No. 4 seed and Cleveland as the current "No. 9 seed" is only six games, and it was just last season that Detroit (then 62-66) catapulted from 9.5 games behind Minnesota (71-56) to secure a wild-card spot. The Mets were also seven games behind Arizona with 29 games to play last season before making up that gap.

Translation: Either AL Central team making the grade would be nothing compared to some of the comebacks we saw one year ago.

And Kansas City certainly has been hot, 28-18 in its last 46 games. The Royals also have all of Cole Ragans, Jac Caglianone and Michael Massey working their way back from the IL, ideally providing actual wins above replacement in September after amounting to a combined minus-2.4 bWAR before their respective injuries. Could be a real postseason field game-changer if they're all contributing down the stretch—especially in that potentially colossal series against the Mariners (Sept. 16-18).

However, whether either Kansas City or Cleveland has enough offense to track down the teams ahead of them is the possibly insurmountable hurdle here, both teams ranking bottom five in the majors in total runs scored. Even in the 12-team postseason era, the only team to make the playoffs while ranking bottom nine in runs scored was the 2023 Miami Marlins, sneaking in with 84 wins and a minus-57 run differential. Hard to imagine 84 wins will be enough this year, unless Seattle just continues to crumble.

Predicted Playoff Teams: Detroit (No. 1 seed)

American League West

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Houston's Yordan Alvarez

Current Standings:

1. Houston Astros (72-59)
2. Seattle Mariners (70-61, 2 GB)
3. Texas Rangers (66-66, 6.5 GB)
4. Los Angeles Angels (61-69, 10.5 GB)
5. Athletics (60-72, 12.5 GB)

Less than a month ago, Texas was right there, tied with Seattle for the last wild card spot and four games behind Houston in this division. Pull the right strings at the trade deadline and, heck, they were only seven games back for the AL's No. 1 seed. It wasn't out of the question.

Instead, they pulled the wrong strings. Merrill Kelly has been solid, including a gem on Sunday, but rather than finally addressing their closer problem, they brought in Phil Maton and Danny Coulombe and hoped for the best. That duo has allowed 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings of work with three blown saves and three losses as the Rangers cratered to the tune of 16 losses in 23 games—before sweeping Cleveland this weekend to gain a bit of ground.

At 4.5 games back with what is still the fifth-best run differential in the AL, they're nowhere near mathematically dead. But it does now seem to be just a question of whether Houston wins the division and Seattle gets a wild-card spot or vice versa, both with pretty favorable schedules to go along with what is already a decent cushion over Texas, Kansas City and Cleveland.

Neither one is exactly on fire at the moment, though. Houston has gone 12-17 in its last 29, while Seattle entered its Athletics/Padres homestand having lost seven out of eight.

The X-factor in a race where Houston already holds a slight lead is the impending return of Yordan Alvarez. One of the best hitters in all of baseball from 2021-24, Alvared simply was not himself for the 29 games he played earlier this season. But he has been raking in his rehab assignment and might be the ultimate "September call-up." If he helps guide the Astros to a series win in the remaining head-to-head showdown (Sept. 19-21 in Houston), that might seal the deal.

Predicted Playoff Teams: Houston (No. 3 seed), Seattle (No. 6 seed)

National League East

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New York's Juan Soto

Current Standings:

1. Philadelphia Phillies (76-54)
2. New York Mets (69-61, 7 GB)
3. Miami Marlins (61-69, 15 GB)
4. Atlanta Braves (59-71, 17 GB)
5. Washington Nationals (53-77, 23 GB)

From June 17 through August 4, this race went back and forth and back again, neither New York nor Philadelphia ever leading by more than two games. But with 16 losses in the span of 21 games, the Mets sure helped the Phillies turn this into a bit of a foregone conclusion.

Nothing has been decided yet, of course. And with seven showdowns still to come—three in New York this week; four in Philadelphia Sept. 8-11—the opportunity is surely there for the Mets to more than just narrow the gap.

However, for as poorly as they've been playing for more than two months at this point, catching Philadelphia hardly feels plausible, and holding off the Reds for the final wild card spot seems to grow less certain with each passing day.

What was an MLB-best 2.83 team ERA through 69 games has become a fourth-worst 5.01 team ERA over the past 60 contests. And heading into the season, the starting rotation is precisely what everyone worried could be the Mets' Achilles' heel, so it doesn't much feel like this is just some stretch of tough luck that's destined to turn around soon.

Buckle up for that 10-game road trip to open September. With three at Detroit, three at Cincinnati (maybe the most important series left in all of MLB this season) and four at Philadelphia, this could all go up in flames in a hurry.

On the Phillies side of things, the big question is the possibility of a first-round bye, for which the series in Los Angeles (Sept. 15-17) looms all sorts of large. The Dodgers have one of the easiest remaining schedules, though, and a rotation that's finally healthy. Still feels like the NL West champ will eventually secure that No. 2 seed, especially with Zack Wheeler now done for the year.

Predicted Playoff Teams: Philadelphia (No. 3 seed)

National League Central

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Cincinnati's Hunter Greene

Current Standings:

1. Milwaukee Brewers (81-50)
2. Chicago Cubs (76-55, 5 GB)
3. Cincinnati Reds (68-63, 13 GB)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (64-67, 17 GB)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (57-74, 24 GB)

Well, if we don't have the Mets making it, you've probably already figured out that we do have the Reds in our projected field.

For one thing, their starting rotation is light years ahead of New York's. Hunter Greene is back from the IL and already shoving. Nick Lodolo (blister) is expected to return on Wednesday and Andrew Abbott has kind of quietly been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season—Saturday's dud in Arizona notwithstanding. If the Reds do make it in, that is a terrifying trio that could anchor a real run, even in a loaded National League field.

For another thing, strong finishes are just kind of Terry Francona's thing. In his next-to-last season with Cleveland, they went 24-6 down the stretch. In 2017, it was a 42-8 surge to the finish line, this after going 21-6, 21-14, 26-16 and 21-11 successively to end 2013-16. Goodness knows there were some impressive Septembers during his time with Boston, too. (Also, few franchises know more about September collapses than the Mets.)

Beyond that slightly controversial pick for the NL's No. 6 seed, nothing too complex here.

Milwaukee has built up a decent cushion over all of Chicago, Philadelphia and Los Angeles and doesn't have a particularly daunting remaining schedule. Got to like the Brew Crew's chances of securing the No. 1 seed.

But if you wanted to sprinkle a little action on the Cubs winning the NL Central at +400, it does bear mentioning that their remaining schedule is a bit of a joke. Their only games left against teams with a winning record are the back-to-back four-game series in Cincinnati and the three-game set at home against the Mets in late September.

They do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Milwaukee, too. Just saying. But we'll officially stick with Milwaukee winning this thing while assuming Chicago stays away of the NL West runner-up for the top wild-card spot.

Predicted Playoff Teams: Milwaukee (No. 1 seed), Chicago (No. 4 seed) and Cincinnati (No. 6 seed)

National League West

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San Diego's Manny Machado

Current Standings:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (74-57)
2. San Diego Padres (74-57, LAD owns H2H tiebreaker)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (64-67, 10 GB)
4. San Francisco Giants (63-68, 11 GB)
5. Colorado Rockies (37-94, 37 GB)

What a race this has been all season long. Los Angeles briefly opened up a nine-game lead in early July, but the presently tied Dodgers and Padres have been within two games of each other far more often than not.

The shame of the matter is: No more head-to-head games—at least during the regular season. So even after losing this weekend's series, we do already know that Los Angeles would hold the tiebreaker if they end up needing one, by virtue of its 9-4 record against San Diego.

Let's talk remaining schedules, though.

They don't face each other again, but they do have two of the easiest paths to the finish line. That makes it almost impossible to imagine a scenario where the runner-up here falls behind both the Mets and Reds to miss the postseason.

Each team has one three-game series left against each of Seattle, Cincinnati, Colorado, Baltimore and Arizona. Where they differ is Los Angeles has Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, a second series against Arizona and seven games against San Francisco, while San Diego gets Milwaukee, the Mets, the White Sox, Minnesota and an additional four-game series against Colorado.

Yes, 42 percent of the Padres' 31 remaining games are against the Rockies, White Sox and Twins. Tankathon ranking San Diego's remaining schedule as the easiest in the majors sure does feel relevant here. So does the fact that the Dodgers have gone 18-25 over their last 43 games while the Padres have lost just one series in the past month—that sweep in Los Angeles one week ago.

Even with Mookie Betts looking much more like his old self over the past 20 days and the Dodgers pitching staff as healthy as it has been all season, this is the first time it has legitimately felt like (from afar, with no rooting interest in either direction) the Padres not only could win this division, but perhaps should.

And though they are presently 2.5 games behind the Phillies, that schedule ought to push them over the top in the race for a first-round bye.

If San Diego and Philadelphia wind up in a tie, though, that tiebreaker is TBD. They split the regular-season games 3-3, so it would at least go to the second tiebreaker, which is record against own division. San Diego is 24-18 with 10 NL West games still to come, while Philadelphia is 20-15 with 17 NL East games remaining. (If a third tiebreaker is necessary—record against other two divisions in the league—San Diego is all but guaranteed to win that one.)

Predicted Playoff Teams: San Diego (No. 2 seed), Los Angeles (No. 5 seed)

Predicting the Postseason

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Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta

Wild Card Round

AL No. 3 Houston Astros over AL No. 6 Seattle Mariners
AL No. 5 Boston Red Sox over AL No. 4 New York Yankees

NL No. 3 Philadelphia Phillies over NL No. 6 Cincinnati Reds
NL No. 5 Los Angeles Dodgers over NL No. 4 Chicago Cubs

Quick Thoughts

1. If this ends up being the actual bracket, Houston-Seattle might be the series that determines who represents the American League in the World Series. But Houston having home-field advantage, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and maybe a rejuvenated Yordan Alvarez is super tough for the trendy M's to overcome.
2. Red Sox beating Yankees in New York should be the final straw for Aaron Boone, contract extension from this past February be damned.
3. No Zack Wheeler hurts Philadelphia in the long run, but Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez at home against a nothing-special Reds lineup will be too much.
4. With Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong showing real signs of life again, this one is so tough to pick. If the Dodgers can make it through the next five weeks without losing more starting pitchers to injury, though, they find a way to get it done.

Division Round

AL No. 5 Boston Red Sox over AL No. 1 Detroit Tigers
AL No. 2 Toronto Blue Jays over AL No. 3 Houston Astros

NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over NL No. 5 Los Angeles Dodgers
NL No. 2 San Diego Padres over NL No. 3 Philadelphia Phillies

Quick Thoughts

1. Unfortunately, we probably wouldn't get Tarik Skubal vs. Garrett Crochet, as the latter probably wouldn't go until Game 2 after being used in Game 1 against New York. But Game 3—probably Casey Mize vs. Brayan Bello in Boston—may well be the decider here, and it's hard not to like the Red Sox in that one.
2. Games in Toronto have been nothing short of electric this season, and Houston rolling out Spencer Arrighetti, Cristian Javier or Lance McCullers Jr. for Game 1 in Toronto might be as good as opening this series in a 1-0 hole. We'll see what the Astros look like health-wise at this point in time, but give us the Jays for now.
3. Brewers went 6-0 during the regular season, and the Dodgers have never become the unstoppable force we thought they would be.
4. Given the respective states of these bullpens, San Diego might win the 7th through 9th innings by several runs per game.

League Championship Series

AL No. 5 Boston Red Sox over AL No. 2 Toronto Blue Jays

NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over NL No. 2 San Diego Padres

Quick Thoughts

1. Dating back to July 3, no one has allowed fewer runs than the Boston Red Sox. And while the Blue Jays have a solid rotation full of former aces, shutting down this Red Sox offense in a best-of-seven series might be too much to ask. If Shane Bieber continues to dominate like he did in his season debut, though, that could spark a change of heart here.
2. This feels like one of those series where the real difference maker is the No. 3/4 starters and the bottom third of the lineup, and Milwaukee's depth of contributors is much greater than San Diego's. But maybe Dylan Cease finally locks in for a quality start or two and flips this series on its head.

World Series

NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over AL No. 5 Boston Red Sox

Rationale: The Brewers are the team of destiny.