30 Overreactions to the 2025 NBA Offseason
It takes actual games to test NBA teams' offseason theories, and we won't have those for several more weeks. That's why it's so easy for hype to get out of control, which leads to overreactions.
Here, we'll take each organization and lay out a common sentiment that stems from their offseason work. The takes are designed to be just a little hyperbolic (these are overreactions), which will make it easy enough to either walk them back or completely debunk them.
Consider this something of a reality check. We're not saying it's wrong to believe that a newly fit Luka Dončić is going to put up a career season as he proves all of his doubters wrong. It's just that there's a lot of evidence suggesting such an outcome is far from certain.
Atlanta Hawks: They Have a Guaranteed Top-4 Spot in the East
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Everyone loves the Atlanta Hawks' offseason. They swindled the New Orleans Pelicans on draft night, landed Kristaps Porzingis for next to nothing and added Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard to support Trae Young and Dyson Daniels in one of the league's deepest backcourt rotations.
With 2024-25 contenders in Boston and Indiana diminished by injury (plus cost-cutting in the Celtics' case), it seems like the Hawks are fated to grab a top-four spot after finishing ninth, 10th, seventh and eighth over the last four seasons.
Not so fast.
The Hawks have questions to answer and plenty to prove before we pencil them in for home-court advantage in the first round.
Trae Young's lack of a contract extension could throw off the vibes, Porzingis will be a perennial injury risk until he proves otherwise, Daniels set an impossibly high standard by finishing second in DPOY voting last year and Jalen Johnson must put serious shoulder injury behind him.
Optimism is definitely warranted, but Atlanta has to validate it with on-court results.
Boston Celtics: No More Messing with the Core
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Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday got their walking papers as part of the Boston Celtics' cost-cutting measures this offseason, and the franchise seems prepared to endure this gap year with Jaylen Brown and Derrick White on the roster. It appears those two will stick around and retake their positions alongside Jayson Tatum when the cornerstone forward recovers from his torn Achilles.
Don't just assume that's set in stone.
Tatum may not be himself until 2027-28, at which point he, Brown and White will be earning a combined $176 million. With the tax line projected around $215 million that season, it's hard to see how the Celtics could build anything close to a contender-worthy supporting cast around a much older, potentially more broken-down core.
An Anfernee Simons trade to further reduce this year's tax bill seems logical, but the Celtics should be considering much more drastic restructuring plans.
Brooklyn Nets: They Shouldn't Have Used All Those Picks
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The Brooklyn Nets had five first-round picks in the 2025 draft and used every single one of them, becoming the only team in league history to make that many selections in one round.
Egor Demin, Nolan Traoré, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf and Danny Wolf will all start their NBA careers as Nets.
There's an argument to be made that all those rookies, many of whom will vie for playing time at point guard, will get in each other's way and collectively stunt development. There are only so many minutes to go around.
Isn't this a recipe for some healthy competition, though? And might Brooklyn have actually been doing the right thing by adding so many first-year players to a team that owns its 2026 first-rounder and can reap the benefits if the battle for playing time contributes to a tank?
On a basic level, Brooklyn's plan is at least interesting. Take five cracks at the "cornerstone prospect" lottery, and maybe you'll hit on one of them. Really, the Nets need a franchise centerpiece more than anything else. Maximizing their odds of finding one by accumulating as many candidates as possible isn't the worst idea.
Charlotte Hornets: They're Miles From Playoff Contention
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The Charlotte Hornets are operating carefully these days, following a longer-term vision that requires a level of patience they didn't possess until roughly two years ago. When a team makes a habit of operating this way—picking up stray second-rounders here, absorbing bad salary there—it suggests competitive basketball is a long way off.
We should know enough by now to realize rebuilds only seem deliberate and interminable until they quickly flip. Just look at the contending Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets. A couple of years ago, all three were in similar situations to where Charlotte is now.
The Hornets have vets with hefty matching salaries they could use in trades. They also possess an All-Star catalyst in LaMelo Ball. Young talent is still the focus here, but Charlotte is already flush with future picks and movable money. This thing could flip on a dime if the Hornets spy the right opportunity.
Chicago Bulls: They Botched the Giddey Trade
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The Chicago Bulls should have accepted one of several offers for Alex Caruso that reportedly included multiple first-round picks. So on one level, it's not an overreaction to say they made a mistake by targeting Josh Giddey a year ahead of free agency.
It's even more tempting to criticize them now that Giddey remains unsigned because he wants significantly more money than the Bulls and the broader free-agent market believe he's worth.
That's a bridge too far. Maybe the initial decision was shaky, but Chicago is doing exactly the right thing by playing hardball with Giddey. Even after his breakout second half last season, the Aussie guard remains a difficult fit on a winning team because of his unreliable defense and limited off-ball value.
Every player's worth depends on what he does on the floor versus what he's being paid. Giddey wouldn't be a positive-value asset if he were making $30 million per season. But at $20 million, the Bulls preferred price tag? That's different.
We don't credit the Bulls for much around here, but their unwillingness to compound a bad trade by overpaying to keep the asset is laudable.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Lonzo Ball Solves Everything
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The idea of Lonzo Ball slotting in between the Darius Garland-Donovan Mitchell backcourt and the Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen frontcourt in postseason closing lineups for the Cleveland Cavaliers is almost too perfect.
What better fifth option than one whose best skills—connective passing, savvy help defense and spot-up sniping—make life easier for higher-usage options while taking absolutely nothing away from their games?
It's not an exaggeration to label Ball one of the biggest swing pieces in the league. He has the potential to lift Cleveland to levels it hasn't seen the past couple of years.
Potential is inherently unguaranteed, though. For Ball, all that hypothetical upside comes with obvious risks. This is a player who lost multiples seasons to injury and is only back on the floor because of a rare, borderline experimental surgery. It's foolish to assume he can make it through a season or, more importantly, be his best self in May and June.
Everyone should be rooting for Ball to fill that critical role for the Cavs, but anyone who's certain he can do it just isn't acknowledging reality.
Dallas Mavericks: Too Many Centers
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The Dallas Mavericks currently have four starting-caliber centers on the roster. Anthony Davis, long resistant to life as a 5, may not count himself among that group, but everyone else does.
That seems like too many, particularly on a roster that is short in other positional areas. D'Angelo Russell is the only battle-tested point guard (until Kyrie Irving returns), for example.
Look closer, and it's not quite right to say the Mavs are overstuffed at center. Dwight Powell has had a ceremonial roster spot for several years; he's not going to contribute on the floor, but he occupies a valuable role as a leader and symbol of stability. Dereck Lively II has yet to prove he can stay healthy. Davis doesn't want to play without another big next to him.
Gafford is also back because he's the most reliable true 5 on the team, but also because the Mavericks wisely preserved him as a trade asset by inking him to a new deal.
The Mavs have several big men, but they might wind up needing all of them. And if it turns out one or two are expendable, maybe that's how Dallas can actually balance things out through a trade.
Denver Nuggets: The Bench Is Fixed!
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OK, the Denver Nuggets actually have a few potential reserves they can trust this season. That's a pretty significant change from last year when they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency, saw first-rounder DaRon Holmes II go down with an Achilles tear before the season and had to rely on inexperienced deep-bench options in the rotation.
As has been the case for most of Nikola Jokič's tenure, the Nuggets got hammered whenever he sat. No Denver reserve posted a positive Box Plus/Minus, and the team lost the non-Jokić minutes by 9.8 points per 100 possessions.
Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown and Jonas Valanciunas give the Nuggets three vets off the bench who've at least been capable rotation weapons in the past. Problem solved, right?
Denver's backups could hardly be worse than they were last year, but let's remember that two of those three players are on the wrong side of 30 while Valanciunas was the only one to post a positive BPM in 2024-25.
The Nuggets' new support pieces have plenty to prove.
Detroit Pistons: Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren Aren't Part of the Future
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The Detroit Pistons selected Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren with the fifth and 13th picks in the 2022 draft, which meant both players were eligible for extensions this offseason. If you weren't aware of that, it's probably because there was almost no chatter whatsoever about either of them getting years and dollars added to their deals.
One logical conclusion would be that neither Ivey nor Duren feature in Detroit's long-term plans.
That's a possibility, and it's also true that neither 2022 draftee has shown enough to definitively establish himself as a core piece. But this is a different financial climate under the new CBA, and one key change is the disappearance of the rubber-stamped rookie-scale extension.
Plenty of 2022 class members are also without extensions, including Keegan Murray (No. 4), Bennedict Mathurin (No. 6), Shaedon Sharpe (No. 7), Dyson Daniels (No. 8) and roughly a dozen other first-rounders. Teams are getting smarter about using restricted free agency (which Duren and Ivey will hit next summer if they don't extend) to control the market and avoid overspending.
Ivey and Duren could blow up this season and remove any doubt about their spots in Detroit's future. Just because they're not locked down now doesn't mean the Pistons have already made up their minds on a pair of promising young players.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors Bungled the Kuminga Situation
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Things look terrible now, with the Golden State Warriors refusing to accept a low-ball sign-and-trade while Jonathan Kuminga's threats to accept the one-year qualifying offer seem more legitimate by the second. But it's not as simple as saying this impasse is all Golden State's fault.
Yes, the Warriors could have traded Kuminga any number of times over the past couple of seasons. He might have been a key piece in a deal for Lauri Markkanen last summer. Before that, his athleticism and bursts of scoring would have made him a centerpiece in almost any star trade imaginable.
The Dubs held onto him because of all that potential, and anyone who followed the team closely understood the almost daily vacillating about Kuminga's future. In one moment, he appeared to be a cornerstone—gifted with unteachable physical tools and an ideal combo-forward frame. In the next, he'd blow coverages, quit rebounding and fail to execute all the little role-player tasks Golden State's sophisticated operation requires.
It was impossible to feel great about committing to Kuminga, and it was impossible to give up on him.
That's how we got here, and while the current reality is a mess, it's easy to understand the hesitation that produced this stalemate.
Houston Rockets: Scoring Problem Solved
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The Houston Rockets' 2024-25 breakout was defined by elite stopping power and suspect scoring. Too often, Houston's attack sputtered when it needed points most.
The Rockets ranked 23rd in fourth-quarter offensive efficiency, posting a meager 110.7 offensive rating. That figure fell to 106.1 in postseason fourth quarters, continuing a year-long trend of the offense giving back all the gains made by a stellar defense.
The addition of one of the greatest scorers in league history would seem to address the issue, particularly since Kevin Durant basically spent every final period of last season on fire. He put up 6.7 points per fourth quarter on a 55.0/51.9/78.8 shooting split.
Remember, though, that KD will be 37 before the season starts—and that fourth quarters were his least efficient in 2023-24.
Houston's attack will be better with KD than it was without him, but it's going to take more than a single high-profile addition to completely solve the problems created by spacing issues and shaky shot-creation.
Indiana Pacers: The Offense Is Cooked
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Tyrese Haliburton solidified his status as a singular driver of offense last season, as the fast-breaking Indiana Pacers scored 8.0 more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor than off, a 95th-percentile figure. He hasn't ranked below the 85th percentile in that stat since 2021-22.
His hardwired "make the right play" programming and relentless hit-ahead passing was key to a dynamic, free-flowing Pacers attack. His Achilles injury will shelve him for all of 2025-26, an absence that'll combine with Myles Turner's free-agent departure to cut the legs out from under Indy's offense.
Probably.
You can't view Hali as something like an heir apparent to Steve Nash and also argue Indiana will score just fine without him. But the Pacers actually do have some options.
Andrew Nembhard will have the ball a ton, and his playoff surge last spring included 12.5 points, 4.7 assists and 46.5 percent shooting from deep. He's more capable of running the show than most assume, and he'll have help from the extremely bucket-hungry Bennedict Mathurin, a good bet to bust out with at least 20.0 points per game.
Plus, the Pacers' success last year was about more than personnel. Their core principles of ball movement, pace-pushing and unselfishness should limit the offensive drop-off.
LA Clippers: Top 4, Here We Come!
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Brook Lopez and John Collins will shore up the frontcourt behind Ivica Zubac, and Bradley Beal will help offset the loss of Norman Powell. Chris Paul is also on board as playmaking insurance with a dash of veteran leadership.
Add all that up, and surely the Los Angeles Clippers are ticketed for an even better season than the wildly surprising one they turned in a year ago.
That's entirely possible, but only if the key drivers of that success hold up their end of the bargain. That's where things get tricky for the Clips.
Though they're clearly deeper, it's difficult to imagine this team will get another 79 All-Star-worthy appearances from James Harden, or that Ivica Zubac can sustain all the gains he made in his own personal breakout year.
Kawhi Leonard logged 37 contests in 2024-25, and something in that range should probably be the expectation going forward. He, like Harden, is also capable of missing huge chunks of time and/or declining rapidly.
It's easy to fixate on the improved supporting cast, but Los Angeles' fate still depends on the fitness of its headliners.
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James Is Getting Traded
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The Los Angeles Lakers are orienting their future around Luka Dončić, which means, for the first time in his life, LeBron James is not the central figure in his organization.
That doesn't mean James, playing out the final year of his contract after failing to secure a new one from Los Angeles, is definitely headed out the door.
A trade request isn't off the table, but practical hindrances mean that even if James demanded to be moved, it wouldn't be easy. Start with a $53 million salary that would need major matching cash headed back to the Lakers and also include the very small number of suitors looking to onboard a soon-to-be free-agent ahead of his age-41 season, and landing spots dwindle.
What's more, the Lakers should still be interested in contending this season. If Dončić's conditioning glow-up is real, it means he's ready to play at an MVP level again. And when you have a player that good, you basically have to go for it.
There's no guarantee the Lakers could reel in a player who'd be a better running mate for Dončić by trading James, who's still an All-NBA superstar—one with more big-game experience than literally any potential replacement.
Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis Isn't Sold on Its Core
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Ja Morant no longer resembles the surefire franchise icon he appeared to be a couple of years ago. Multiple injury-plagued seasons and conduct-based suspensions tend to have that effect.
Meanwhile, Desmond Bane isn't on the team at all, which means two of Memphis' three key pieces are either on shaky ground or gone. Jaren Jackson Jr. got his hefty $205 million extension over the offseason, so at least the Grizzlies have one cornerstone they can believe in.
Glass half-full: The deal that sent Bane to the Magic was simply too good for the Grizzlies to pass on. For a player who'd never made an All-Star game and was due to earn an average of over $40 million per year through 2028-29, five first-round assets is more than an attention-getter. It's a "how quickly can we say 'yes' without seeming desperate?" situation.
Just because Bane is gone and Morant's Q rating is down, it doesn't mean the Grizzlies are pivoting away from the young talent that got them this far. Jackson's deal is proof of that on its own.
Miami Heat: This is a Gap Year
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Miami traded the injured Haywood Highsmith to duck the luxury tax and seems to be positioning itself as one of a small handful of teams with more than mid-level money available to spend next summer.
The Heat, though, don't tend to take gap years.
Between Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo, Miami should be competitive with all but the toughest teams in the East. With the Celtics and Pacers taking steps back due to key injuries, the Heat might be even friskier than it seems.
Don't forget potential trade candidate Kel'el Ware, who could be key to Miami snagging a star upgrade this season. And don't rule out win-now contributions from the roster's younger options like Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or rookie Kasparas Jakucionis.
The Heat only keep their powder dry until they're ready to fire away at a meaningful target. Don't assume they'll just throw this season away.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Is Staying
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Technically, the faction of Milwaukee Bucks fans that never bought the idea of Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving town have been right every time. Maybe they always will be.
After all, Milwaukee stretched Damian Lillard so it could sign Myles Turner, yet another in a years-long series of desperate efforts to prove to Giannis that contending is the organization's only goal.
Seriously, though, how long can the Bucks keep refocusing Antetokounmpo's wandering eye? At what point will he realize that loyalty and all the caché of being a "one career, one team" guy is coming at the cost of another ring?
Eventually, Antetokounmpo will have to concede that there's no path to ultimate success in Milwaukee. It should have happened a while ago, but the smart money is on him coming to grips with that fact at some point this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves: They Lost Ground in the West
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker left in free agency, Mike Conley is coming off the least productive season of his career and the Minnesota Timberwolves spent their money on talent retention rather than acquisition.
With the Oklahoma City Thunder looking indomitable, a full season of Jimmy Butler in Golden State, a dangerously retooled Houston Rockets, the rise of Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio and no letup in the win-now postures of either LA team, it feels like Minnesota is in worse position to reach the conference finals than it was in either of the last two years.
NAW's exit hurts less with Terrence Shannon looking like an energy-injecting replacement, and Rob Dillingham should mitigate Conley's inevitable 19th-season decline.
Don't forget the potential for Anthony Edwards to climb another rung on the superstar ladder, or the possibility that both Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo will be better during their second full seasons in head coach Chris Finch's system.
The West is always tough. If it's even tougher this year, the Wolves are ready for it.
New Orleans Pelicans: This is the Bleakest Situation in the West
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You'd have to work pretty hard to find a more roundly panned trade than the one the New Orleans Pelicans pulled off on draft night. The deal that sent an unprotected 2026 first-round pick (most favorable of NOP and MIL) to the Hawks along with the No. 23 selection to move up 10 spots for Derik Queen looked bad before Queen underwent left wrist surgery in July.
Pair that move with the general lack of faith in a new front office led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, add the typical "can he ever stay healthy" questions about Zion Williamson, and it's tough to see anything promising in the Pels' future.
This isn't to say New Orleans is in an objectively strong position, but let's not forget it's much further along than a team like the Utah Jazz in terms of present talent, and that the Suns are clearly staring down a bleaker half-decade due to their lack of draft picks.
The Pelicans have outs. They've got swap rights with Milwaukee in 2027 that could pay off huge if Giannis Antetokounmpo finally bounces before then. They also have guys like Trey Murphy and Herb Jones on reasonable deals that make them valuable trade candidates for literally every team in the league.
Williamson has All-NBA upside, and it's totally feasible that Queen (when healthy) and Jeremiah Fears could land on an All-Rookie team.
The Pels' situation is concerning, but it's a long way from hopeless.
New York Knicks: Jordan Clarkson Will Fix the Bench
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Extra scoring punch is never a bad thing, and the New York Knicks clearly needed bodies to ease the burden on their overtaxed starters—especially Jalen Brunson and 2024-25 minutes leader Mikal Bridges.
Jordan Clarkson, a spark-plug reserve, seems like exactly what the doctor ordered—if it were five years ago.
The offensive-minded guard has been good for at least 15.0 points per game since 2018-19, won Sixth man of the Year in 2020-21 and finished fourth the following season. Slippage has been a constant ever since, and Clarkson now enters his age-33 campaign with real questions about his efficiency, durability and fitness for a roster designed to win games.
Maybe Clarkson still has his fastball, and maybe he'll rediscover his best self now freed of the tankathon in Utah. But this is a player who's supposed to bolster a Brunson-less offense—only he's posted true shooting percentages below the league average in each of the previous five seasons.
Let's not assume Clarkson is the ideal fix some believe him to be.
Oklahoma City Thunder: A Repeat Is Inevitable
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Given their collective youth, flexibility and recent success, the Oklahoma City Thunder seem unbeatable. They deserve to be title favorites, but it's a mistake to assume OKC will casually traipse to another championship.
Even the all-time greats run into challenges.
Those James Harden-led Houston Rockets teams put the screws to the KD Warriors in the late 2010s. LeBron James led the Cavs to a championship win over the 73-victory, title-defending Dubs in 2016. More recently, everyone thought the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics would repeat as champs—only to see both fall short.
Every team, no matter how seemingly bulletproof, has vulnerabilities. That'll apply to the Thunder this season.
Orlando Magic: The Offense Will Be Above Average
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The bar for offensive success is low in Orlando, where the Magic haven't finished above 17th in scoring efficiency since 2011-12 and have been far worse than that of late. In four of the past five seasons, they've ranked in the bottom five.
The trade that sent out five first-round assets for Desmond Bane will help, as will the long overdue signing of a game-manager to run the second unit. Tyus Jones is ideally suited for that role.
Given those upgrades, better health for Jalen Suggs and the likely improvement of lead options Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, it might seem like something special is afoot offensively.
Pump the brakes on that. Even if substandard scoring personnel has been an issue for years in Orlando, the current team may still be held back by head coach Jamahl Mosley's tactical tendencies. Orlando has rarely pushed the pace on his watch, ranking an average of 16th in transition frequency since he took over. Its three-point attempt rate is just 21st across those same four seasons.
Until Orlando upgrades strategically, the added talent will only go so far. Let's set our expectations at an offense that gets out of the bottom 10, which would still be quite an achievement.
Philadelphia 76ers: Trade Everybody
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Joel Embiid may or may not be ready for training camp following yet another offseason knee surgery, and Paul George injured his left knee during an offseason workout, which led to surgery in July.
Already, a Philadelphia 76ers team undone by the poor health of its priciest stars last year seems to be headed down the same path. Considering career trajectories rarely change direction when they're headed as sharply downward as they are for Embiid and George, wouldn't it make sense to blow the whole thing up rather than waste another year throwing good money after bad?
Teardown decisions aren't so simple. For starters, neither George nor Embiid are positive-value assets at the moment. Maybe at some point in the next year, that'll change. Good health will be required, and that's far from a given, but we know neither star is physically right at the moment.
Between their cratered values and the near-term upside of Philly's young guards (plus that 2028 first-rounder coming from the Clippers), a little patience could produce rewards.
The Sixers' collective finger should be hovering over the red button, but they don't need to mash it just yet.
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker Is a Phoenix Lifer
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Despite being under contract through 2027-28 at the max, Devin Booker still got another two years and $133 million tacked onto his contract via offseason extension. The Phoenix Suns handed him the extra years and dollars at their earliest opportunity.
Combined with the consistent messaging that Booker has no plans to extricate himself from a franchise run into the ground since Mat Ishbia assumed ownership, it sure seems like the team's all-time leading scorer is staying put for years to come.
Yeah, right.
Booker has shown more patience than other stars, and the extra money helps. But as Phoenix continues to wallow around near the bottom of the West with few positive-value trade chips and no control of its first-rounders to reward all that losing, Booker is going to do what almost every other similarly situated player has always done.
If Damian Lillard can leave Portland, Booker should be expected to eventually ask out of a much worse situation in Phoenix.
Portland Trail Blazers: This is a Playoff Team
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The Portland Trail Blazers went 23-18 over their final 41 games last season. Even if second-half runs should always be subject to skepticism, Portland's was doubly encouraging because it was led mainly by the youth.
Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan and virtually everyone else under the age of 25 had something to do with that solid finish, and it's easy to project further growth going forward.
The Blazers need to understand that progress isn't always linear. The defense that dominated over those last 41 games owed a debt to opponents shooting 34.7 percent from deep, the third lowest figure in the league during that span. Opponent long-range shooting is notoriously unlikely to stick.
Portland believes in its shot at present success. It wouldn't have traded for Jrue Holiday if that weren't the case. But the Blazers are still very young in key positions and will be trying to take the next step in a grossly overpowered West that won't give them many easy nights.
It's fine to believe in the Blazers, but a postseason trip might be beyond their grasp at the moment.
Sacramento Kings: Hope Isn't Lost
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The Sacramento Kings couldn't really stop De'Aaron Fox from leaving last season, and they've done reasonably well in replacing him with Dennis Schroder (and possibly Russell Westbrook). The scoring talent still on hand—Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk—should produce enough points for the offense to rank somewhere just slightly worse than last year's No. 9 spot.
The defense will still get some capable play from Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis, and...actually, let's not do this anymore.
The straw-man case for the Kings this season is as flimsy and combustible as an actual scarecrow. Loyalists and diehards will continue to believe this group can achieve something, but anyone paying close attention knows "Bulls West" is in a tailspin brought about by shoddy ownership and the return of the coach/GM revolving door.
It's both an overreaction and the wrong reaction to suggest Sacramento has some upside with a worse roster than the one that went 40-42 last year.
San Antonio Spurs: The Ascent Is Inevitable
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Bet against Victor Wembanyama at your own risk, but understand that plenty of obstacles stand in the way of the likely MVP candidate hauling the San Antonio Spurs into the thick of the playoff race.
Shaky guard play is one way to guarantee a low ceiling on offense, and the Spurs are going to give major minutes to a pair of young ones in Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. If speed-dependent De'Aaron Fox misses time in his upcoming ninth season, San Antonio will have to count on those unproven-but-promising youngsters to run the show.
Defensively, the Spurs will be spectacular whenever Wemby is on the floor. His deep shooting and developing skills all over the court also create the possibility of major offensive growth.
Nonetheless, Fox's fit remains uncertain after so few reps a year ago, and San Antonio lacks proven facilitators behind him. Don't sell shares of this team's long-term outlook, but be careful assuming Wembanyama's presence means there are no immediate issues here.
Toronto Raptors: The Roster Makes No Sense
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Jakob Poeltl got a three-year, $84.5 million extension that'll keep him on the books until 2030, which means the Toronto Raptors intend to feature a space-cramping non-shooter in their starting lineup for the foreseeable future.
Combined with uncertain efficiency from Scottie Barnes and rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, Brandon Ingram's historically low long-range volume and four straight years in the bottom 10 of three-point accuracy, the Raptors seem to have consigned themselves to a clunky offense.
Take heart, Canada. Immanuel Quickley can stripe it, and he should be healthy enough to drag defenses out of the paint. Ingram still prefers mid-rangers, but he quietly set a career high by getting up 7.0 long-range attempts per 36 minutes last year with the Pelicans. Barnes has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, but he's only a season removed from a respectable 34.1 percent hit rate on threes.
If the Raptors push for a playoff trip, it'll be mostly because they're long, defensively stout and rugged on the offensive glass. But it's also possible that they'll get enough shooting improvement to blow away their 25th-place finish in offensive rating last season.
Utah Jazz: The Tank Will Work This Time
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The Utah Jazz are going to lose a ton of games this season, and it'll be by design.
Some combination of Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier will run the show, ensuring the offense will be controlled by inexperienced point guards. Kyle Filipowski will get all he can eat with John Collins gone, and that'll mean big numbers on offense and catastrophic D on the other end.
Rookie Ace Bailey offers long-term promise, but all the questions about his shot selection and scoring efficiency will likely result in a legitimate tank-commander season, assuming he gets the large role he should for developmental purposes.
Whether Lauri Markkanen returns to All-Star form or not, Utah has sufficiently sabotaged its roster.
That's pretty much the way things went last year when the Jazz won a league-low 17 games. All they got out of it was the No. 5 pick and a risky, high-ceilinged prospect in Bailey.
Never forget that failure doesn't bring any guarantees in the flattened-lottery-odds era.
Washington Wizards: This Season Is a Throwaway
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When you look ahead at what might be as much as $93 million in 2026 cap space, it's hard to avoid thinking that the Washington Wizards' priorities aren't of the short-term variety.
Malcolm Brogdon remains unsigned, Marcus Smart got a buyout and the remaining two players over the age of 27—Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum—come off the books next summer.
It's true the Wizards are focusing on their future, but the 2025-26 campaign is still hugely important. Washington needs to go into its big-spending summer with a sense of what the roster actually needs. Call the upcoming year a fact-finding exercise—one in which all the youngsters get real opportunities to prove their spot in the rotation doesn't need to be filled by a fresh draft pick or incoming veteran.
Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Cam Whitmore, Kyshawn George, A.J. Johnson—every one of those guys will have a chance to establish himself as a core piece of whatever the next great Wizards team looks like.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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