Predictions for NBA's Best Available 2025 Free Agents
Though the NBA free-agency festivities have slowed to a crawl, a few high-profile names remain on the open market—more than usual, in fact.
This late into the summer, their options are wearing thin, so we have a general idea of where they'll land. But for how much? And for how long? Those remain open questions.
Our mission: Provide answers to them here.
Josh Giddey (Restricted)
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Writing for The Stein Line, NBA insider Jake Fischer divulged that the Chicago Bulls have offered Josh Giddey a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $80 million. The 22-year-old, however, continues to seek $30 million per season.
Meeting in the middle feels fait accompli.
The 22-year-old does not have another suitor dangling the money he wants. We'd have heard about it by now. While that gives the Bulls a ton of leverage, they're not about to squeeze their young floor general to the point he signs his qualifying offer and heads into unrestricted free agency next summer.
Bet on this ending with a four-year deal that sees Chicago come up a little bit and Giddey moving off his initial ask in exchange for flexibility at the end of the contract.
Prediction: Josh Giddey re-signs with the Bulls on a four-year, $96 million deal, with a player option on the final season.
Quentin Grimes (Restricted)
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Of the four notable restricted free agents remaining on the open market, Quentin Grimes' negotiations with his incumbent Philadelphia 76ers remain the biggest mystery.
The absence of a deal—and concretely reported price point—suggests the two sides are far apart. That could pave the way for a "signs-the-qualifying-offer" situation.
Yet, according to Fischer, the expectation is that a longer-term agreement will get hashed out. That seems right.
The Sixers don't have the durable infrastructure to mismanage a breakout asset. Grimes, 25, clearly doesn't have any suitors to leverage against them, and accepting the qualifying offer poses all sorts of risks. Chief among them: Seeing his role severely compromised by a healthier depth chart this coming season that torpedoes his market value next summer.
This dance between player and team is giving off an air of inevitability. Grimes and the Sixers will reach a multi-year agreement, with some team flexibility, that guarantees him a notch above mid-level-exception money.
Prediction: Quentin Grimes re-signs with the Sixers on a four-year, $67 million deal, with a team option in the final season.
Al Horford (Unrestricted)
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Al Horford is most likely bound for the Golden State Warriors. Like a handful of others, he's just waiting on the Jonathan Kuminga situation (debacle?) to resolve itself.
Depending on how the JK soap opera plays out, the Warriors could need to change up their offer.
If Kuminga proves to be ultra-expensive, it might leave them with only the veteran's minimum to dangle. If he leaves or gets moved in a sign-and-trade, they could technically access the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
Count on the middle ground winning out again, and the 39-year-old joining Golden State for the taxpayer's mid-level exception.
Prediction: Al Horford signs with the Warriors for two years and $11.7 million, with a player option for 2026-27.
Jonathan Kuminga (Restricted)
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Sources told Fischer that Golden State is holding firm with a two-year, $45 million offer to Jonathan Kuminga that includes a team option in the final season. The 22-year-old, on the other hand, is pushing for a player option.
One of these sides is going to blink first. And it's going to be the Warriors.
Letting Kuminga sign his qualifying offer would be disastrous. He would be freshly angry and have the right to veto any trade, and his next team wouldn't own his Bird rights. That eliminates any possibility of Golden State receiving adequate compensation for his services.
Expect the Warriors to cave in some form. Short of juicing his annual salary into the $30 million range, a two-year contract with a team option will end up being out of the question.
Prediction: Jonathan Kuminga re-signs with the Warriors on a two-year, $45 million deal, with a player option for 2026-27.
Cam Thomas (Restricted)
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Cam Thomas should be the least likely among the remaining restricted free agents to go the qualifying-offer route.
Score-first guards standing under 6'5" without much of a playmaking or defensive lean aren't in high demand. The Brooklyn Nets have all the leverage, particularly in this market. And they're acting like it.
Their best offer to Thomas appears to have topped out at two years and $28 million. That would actually work out to less than a deal for the full non-taxpayer's mid-level over two seasons ($28.9 million).
Not surprisingly, according to Fischer, this has the 23-year-old seriously contemplating whether to sign his $6 million qualifying offer and enter unrestricted free agency next summer. And you know what? That's exactly what he's going to do.
Traveling down that path is all sorts of risky, but next year's salary-cap landscape will be more inviting. Another solid season from Thomas could put him in line for full non-taxpayer-mid-level deal elsewhere, which projects to be worth $47.5 million over three years or $64. 9 million over four years.
Prediction: Cam Thomas signs his qualifying offer with the Nets and becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
