6 Players Who Are Going Too Early in Fantasy Football Drafts Right Now

In the first round of fantasy football drafts, you want to hit on home run picks and avoid busts who will force you to overcompensate with wild swings in trades.

Typically, you should pass on players coming off years with abnormal touchdown production, unless they have established a history of being a scoring machine.

Do you remember Jamaal Williams rushing for 17 touchdowns in 2022? How about Raheem Mostert's 21-touchdown performance in 2023? Both saw a significant drop-off in scoring production after those standout years.

In the fantasy realm, that's called touchdown regression. A few players going in the first four rounds of drafts are due for the same fate.

Here's a fair warning to avoid these six players at their current early-round average draft positions (ADP) in points-per-reception leagues.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

ADP: 1.02

In 2024, Saquon Barkley nearly broke Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record with 2,005 yards on the ground. He also led the league in scrimmage yards (2,283). So, fantasy managers are looking for an encore performance in 2025.

If healthy, Barkley will retain a high-volume workload, but the last four rushing champions have seen a notable decline in production and dealt with injuries in the following season.

Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey all missed at least four games in the season after they last led the league in rushing yards. None of them eclipsed 937 rushing yards in the follow-up campaign.

Henry won the rushing title in 2019 and 2020, but he missed nine games during the 2021 campaign, the only injury-riddled term on his pro resume.

If you believe in the Madden cover curse, it's another reason to stay away from Barkley early in fantasy drafts. Even if you aren't beholden to superstitions, the recent fantasy football history of rushing champions isn't on his side.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

ADP: 1.09

Some fantasy football analysts view Puka Nacua as a bounce-back candidate after he finished as WR26 in full PPR leagues last season.

Managers who have drafted him on the back end of the first round probably expect to see his receiving numbers look similar to his 2023 Pro Bowl rookie term when he caught 105 passes for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. He finished as WR4 that year.

The Los Angeles Rams essentially swapped out Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, which isn't an impediment to Nacua's production.

Since the Rams acquired Matthew Stafford, they have ranked 10th or 14th in pass attempts, with the only exception being the 2022 term when he missed eight games because of injury.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Stafford is dealing with an aggravated disc in his back, and the team gave him an epidural to manage the pain. Though Rapoport noted the team expects him to be ready for Week 1, this isn't a good sign for his durability ahead of a 17-game season.

The Rams could start Jimmy Garoppolo if Stafford takes weeks off to rest his back or the injury worsens throughout the season.

Stafford has a history of playing through injuries, but he's 37 years old, and his volume passing numbers have been on the decline in recent years. He finished outside of the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns for the 2023 and 2024 terms. A healthy Stafford may struggle to produce two top-20 fantasy receivers.

Nacua's upside is capped by the uncertainty around Stafford and Garoppolo, who threw for more interceptions than touchdowns before he lost his starting job with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.

Garoppolo could be serviceable under Rams head coach Sean McVay, but he's never averaged more than 30 pass attempts per game in a season as a full-time starter.

You can find far better receiver options than Nacua at the end of the first round.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Melissa Tamez

ADP: 2.03

Josh Jacobs hasn't been able to string together back-to-back 1,000-plus-yard rushing seasons since his first two years in the league. In addition, he's recorded double-digit rushing touchdowns in three terms, none of them back-to-back.

In 2024, his first year with the Green Bay Packers, he rushed for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns, going on an extraordinary scoring run in the second half of the season. He scored 12 of his 15 rushing touchdowns between Weeks 11 and 18 while averaging nearly 18 carries per game in that stretch.

Players rarely repeat those scoring streaks, as evidenced in Jacobs' history of rushing touchdowns in a season. Moreover, he could lose more touches to Emanuel Wilson, who proved to be a solid backup averaging 4.9 yards per carry and totaling 550 scrimmage yards for the previous term, and second-year running back MarShawn Lloyd, who dealt with injuries last year.

Managers should also factor in a more robust passing attack with the addition of rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden, who has generated buzz at training camp.

The Packers didn't invest the 23rd pick in a receiver to finish near the bottom of the league in pass attempts for consecutive seasons.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

ADP: 2.11

Last season, the Los Angeles Chargers had to force-feed targets to Ladd McConkey out of necessity. To his credit, he made the most of his opportunities, hauling in 82 of his 112 targets for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns.

He could see significant regression in his target share this year, though.

The Chargers selected wide receiver Tre' Harris in the second round of the 2025 draft. They also brought back Keenan Allen, who has an established rapport with quarterback Justin Herbert.

Allen turned 33 in April, but he's not an over-the-hill receiver. Last season, he led the Chicago Bears in touchdown receptions with seven and finished second on the team in catches (70) and receiving yards (744).

Harris, Allen and Quentin Johnston will eat into McConkey's target share. Tight end Tyler Conklin could also be a factor in the Chargers' aerial attack. He's recorded at least 51 receptions in four consecutive terms.

Compared to the previous campaign, Herbert has more options in the passing game. McConkey will still be the Chargers' No. 1 wideout, but he's not going to see the same volume in 2025.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

ADP: 3.09

James Cook's fantasy outlook will display the classic case of touchdown regression, and no, this has nothing to do with his hold-in contract situation.

In 2024, he tied Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs for a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns after logging just four combined in his first two years. Also, he attempted 30 fewer carries and racked up 113 fewer yards than he did in 2023.

Between quarterback Josh Allen and a pair of capable backups in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, the Buffalo Bills have multiple players who can vulture Cook's touchdowns.

Over the last two years, Allen has rushed for 27 touchdowns. As a rookie last season, Davis scored six touchdowns from scrimmage, and he could see an expanded role. In 2024, Johnson played a role in the short passing game, logging 18 receptions for 284 yards and three touchdowns.

Buoyed by a high touchdown total last season, Cook's fantasy scoring rate will regress toward the mean in 2025.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Darryl Webb

ADP: 4.01

In 2024, James Conner peaked as a fantasy asset. As the Arizona Cardinals' featured running back, he logged career highs in rushing yards (1,094) and scrimmage yards (1,508)

However, Conner and Trey Benson have talked publicly about sharing the workload as co-No. 1 running backs, which is not what managers want to hear if they drafted the former in the fourth round.

Conner, who's missed at least four games in two of the previous four terms, turned 30 in May. He's more likely to cede a decent portion of the workload to Benson, a 2024 third-rounder, at this stage in his career.

Furthermore, quarterback Kyler Murray is "open to running more" now he's coming up on three years removed from a torn ACL.

With Benson and Murray more involved in the ground game, Conner's workload and fantasy production could take a significant hit.

ADP data is provided by Fantasy Football Calculator.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.