Fantasy Football 2025 Running Backs to Avoid in Drafts

Most fantasy football managers, at least the ones who've put in any kind of research effort, will enter their draft rooms with specific players to target for the 2025 NFL season.

Those managers should have another kind of player in mind, too: the ones who should be avoided at anything closer to their normal draft cost.

While adding a league-winner can go a long way toward helping you...well, win your league, avoiding first-round flops and early busts can be just as critical to your success. And since attrition tends to impact running backs the most, it makes sense to highlight three players at this marquee position who have too many warning signs to justify paying their elevated prices.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (Average Draft Position: 11)

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McCaffrey's upside case is both obvious and incredibly enticing. If he manages to stay upright for a full season, he might be the best player in fantasy.

His downside argument, however, is unfortunately just as obvious. That "if healthy" caveat applies as much to him as anyone. In three of the last five seasons, he's been limited to seven games or fewer, making just four appearances in 2024 and three back in 2020.

His next birthday will be his 30th, which is always an ominous one for running backs. His last season was one of his least effective. His volume was obviously limited by all of those absences, but he hardly looked like himself when he played. His 5.4 yards per touch were the second-fewest of his career, and his scoring column was left empty for the first time.

While there's a point at which his potential is too great to overlook, it's a bit staggering to see fantasy managers wager that it comes inside of the first round. You're getting a slight discount on his upside, but that draft cost essentially overlooks all of his downside.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 26)

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Last season, only five running backs scored more standard fantasy points than Williams. Take that production at face value, and there's nothing obviously wrong with his current draft price.

Dig just a bit beneath the surface, though, and Williams' campaign quickly loses its luster.

He basically turned an absurd amount of opportunity volume into good amount of volume production. What happens if those opportunities aren't as plentiful this time around, though? Because he definitely gave the Rams reasons to rethink their plan of attack. After averaging an impressive 4.7 yards per touch over his first two seasons, he saw that figure fall to a career-low 4.2.

Maybe the Rams aren't worried about that. They haven't spent a ton of capital of running back alternatives and just extended Williams' contract. Still, they might want more juice in their ground game, since he hasn't been a great source of explosive plays or the most elusive rusher around. It feels like the bottom could come crashing down one of these seasons, and you'll be in a brutal spot if that happens on the heels of you investing a late second- or early third-round pick in him.

Breece Hall, New York Jets (ADP: 29)

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How impressive is a 1,000-yard rushing season for a star running back? If they suit up for all 17 games, they could hit four digits with a hair under 60 rushing yards per week. Not exactly elite-of-the-elite stuff, is it?

Why does that pertain to Hall, you might ask? Well, because his next 1,000-yard rushing season would be his first. He hasn't had a double-digit touchdown campaign yet, either, if goal-line clearing is more your jam.

Now, some might note that Hall ups his value with his work in the passing game, but are those same people confident he'll be just as effective and efficient as a receiver now that he's catching passes from Justin Fields? Considering the quarterback is a career 61.1 percent passer with more games played (50) than touchdowns thrown (45), it's hard to imagine what would lead them to that conclusion beyond blind faith.

Even worse, Fields' effectiveness as a runner could mean fewer rushing opportunities are available to Hall. Compounding that issue, Jets coach Aaron Glenn has expressed a desire to get all of his running backs involved with a by-committee approach. In other words, Hall's volume, which hasn't been particularly great to begin with, might not be near what it normally is. You'd just never know that based on his average third-round cost.