Boom or Bust? Reviewing Every First Overall Pick from the NHL Draft Since 2010

Every year, the NHL Draft provides all 32 teams with the opportunity to select the best young players in North American and International hockey. Whichever club gets the first-overall pick is determined by placement in the overall standings and the results of the annual draft lottery.

The player chosen first overall immediately becomes the focus of intense scrutiny by hockey fans and media. Expectations for that youngster are sky-high as they face the pressure of playing up to their projected status as a future superstar.

Matthew Schaefer is the latest to face this experience. On June 28, the 17-year-old defenseman for the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League was chosen first overall by the New York Islanders.

Since the draft was implemented in 1963, most players selected first overall have gone on to NHL careers. Many had varying degrees of success, with a handful becoming superstars and Hall of Famers. Some struggled to meet expectations and never achieved the greatness expected of them.

The same holds for the players chosen first overall since 2010. All but one is still playing in the NHL. A few are established superstars, while others have had successful careers thus far. Meanwhile, those chosen over the past five years have yet to reach their full potential.

Follow along as we review every first-overall NHL pick over the last 15 years, assessing their accomplishments thus far and what could lie ahead for each player.

Taylor Hall (2010)

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Taylor Hall in action with the Edmonton Oilers during the 2015-16 season.

The first of three consecutive first-overall picks for the Edmonton Oilers from 2010 to 2012, left wing Taylor Hall has endured his share of highs and lows in his 15 NHL seasons. He spent the first six seasons of his career with the Oilers (including an 80-point performance in 2013-14) but never fully broke through as a scoring star.

Traded to the New Jersey Devils on June 29, 2016, for defenseman Adam Larsson, Hall had a career-best performance of 93 points in 2017-18 as he led the rebuilding Devils into the playoffs. He was awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy and named to the First All-Star Team.

Injuries have since hampered Hall's performance, resulting in frequent movement around the league. Since 2019-20, he's played for the Devils, Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, and Chicago Blackhawks, and is now a second-line winger with the Carolina Hurricanes.

In 909 NHL regular-season games, the 33-year-old Hall has 284 goals and 455 assists for 739 points. He also has 16 goals and 19 assists for 35 points in 54 playoff games.

Hall has had a good NHL career, highlighted by his standout 2017-18 campaign. However, he never regained those heights as he struggled with injuries and inconsistency. He's not a bust, but his Hart Trophy campaign leaves the impression that he could've achieved greater heights.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011)

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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the second of three straight first-overall picks by the Edmonton Oilers between 2010 and 2012. He's been with the club through the lows of their “Decade of Darkness” (2006-07 to 2015-16), to the highs and heartbreak of back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals in 2024 and 2025.

Nugent-Hopkins didn't become a superstar, but he's been a very good middle-six forward for the Oilers. A versatile two-way forward who plays center but can also skate on the wing, he's scored 271 goals and 477 assists for 748 points in 959 regular-season games. He also has 81 points in 96 playoff games.

That includes eight seasons with 50-or-more points, including an eye-popping 104-point career high performance in 2022-23. However, his production is mostly in the 50-60 points range during his best seasons. He was named to the All-Rookie Team in 2011-12 and was a finalist for the Calder Memorial Trophy.

Signed through 2028-29 with a full no-movement clause, the 32-year-old Nugent-Hopkins will likely finish his career as an Oiler. He's approaching the period when a player's skills begin to decline, but he should remain an effective forward for the Oilers.

Nugent-Hopkins has been a reliable presence as a two-way forward with the Oilers. He quickly established himself as a core player, a role he still holds today. That's a solid result for a player they chose first overall 14 years ago.

Nail Yakupov (2012)

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The last of three straight first-overall picks for the Edmonton Oilers in the early 2010s, right wing Nail Yakupov was considered the top prospect by NHL Central Scouting in the 2012 NHL Draft. He was projected to become a dynamic, game-breaking scorer in the NHL.

Making his debut in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, Yakupov showed potential as a scorer, leading all rookies with 17 goals and tying Jonathan Huberdeau for the most points among NHL freshmen with 31.

That proved to be the high point in Yakupov's NHL career. A one-dimensional player, he was unwilling to work on his all-around game. That might've been overlooked had his offensive game improved, but he never managed more than 34 points in a season during his four years in Edmonton.

The Oilers traded Yakupov to the St. Louis Blues in 2016, where he netted only nine points in 40 games. Signed as a free agent by the Colorado Avalanche in 2017, he had 16 points in 58 games.

Yakupov has spent his professional career since 2018-19 in Russia's Kontinental Hockey League. He's among the worst first-overall picks in NHL history and the worst of the past 15 years, with 136 points in 350 NHL games.

Nathan MacKinnon (2013)

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The Colorado Avalanche struck pay dirt when they chose Nathan MacKinnon with the first-overall pick in the 2013 NHL Draft. Ranked second overall among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, he's become one of the biggest stars in franchise history.

MacKinnon won the Calder Memorial Trophy in 2013-14 with 63 points. However, the young center struggled over the following three seasons as the rebuilding Avalanche missed the playoffs during that time.

The 2017-18 season marked the turning point in MacKinnon's career, reaching 97 points for the first of three straight 90-plus point performances. An injury in 2021-22 limited him to 88 points in 65 games, but he was among the key players behind the Avalanche's Stanley Cup run in the spring of 2022.

Since 2022-23, MacKinnon has been among the dominant players in the game. He's reached or exceeded 111 points in each season, including a career-best 140 points in 2023-24, earning the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award. He's also been twice named to the First All-Star Team.

MacKinnon turns 30 on Sept. 1 but remains in the prime of his playing career. Since his breakout performance in 2017-18, he's third among NHL scorers with 809 points. MacKinnon holds the single-season Avalanche points record, while his 1,015 career points rank third all-time among Avalanche scorers.

Aaron Ekblad (2014)

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Sitting at No. 2 among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting in their final 2014 rankings, defenseman Aaron Ekblad was chosen by the Florida Panthers with the first overall pick. Since then, he's become the linchpin of their blue-line corps.

Ekblad has spent his entire 11-season NHL career with the Panthers. He won the Calder Memorial Trophy in 2014-15, going on to establish himself as their top defenseman. He played a crucial role in the Panthers' rise from perennial laughingstock to back-to-back Stanley Cup champions.

A solid all-around defenseman, Ekblad sits second among the Panthers' franchise leaders with 732 games played, third in assists with 262, and fifth in points with 380. Injuries have hampered his performance and production in recent years. When healthy, however, he remains a reliable defensive presence.

Ekblad didn't go on to become an elite defenseman winning multiple individual awards, nor did he become a superstar like fellow 2014 first-rounders Leon Draisaitl and David Pastrňák. Nevertheless, his value to the Panthers made him a worthwhile choice as their first-overall pick.

Signed to an eight-year contract, the 29-year-old Ekblad appears destined to finish his career with the Panthers. This deal might not age well given his recent injury history, but it demonstrates his ongoing importance to the Panthers as they attempt to keep their championship window open.

Connor McDavid (2015)

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The fourth No. 1 draft pick in six years for the Edmonton Oilers during the 2010s, Connor McDavid was projected to become an NHL superstar of the same caliber as Sidney Crosby, Mario Lemieux, and Wayne Gretzky. He's more than met those expectations, becoming the face of the Oilers and of the league itself.

McDavid is second to Gretzky among the Oilers' all-time scorers with 721 assists and 1,082 points. During the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, he broke Gretzky's record for most assists in a single postseason, finishing with 34 and earning the Conn Smythe Trophy.

That's not the only individual award that McDavid won in his 10 NHL seasons. He's taken home the Art Ross Trophy five times, the Ted Lindsay Award four times, the Hart Memorial Trophy three times, and the Maurice Richard Trophy in 2022-23.

McDavid became the dominating superstar every NHL fan hopes for in a first-overall pick. He's the best player of his generation, an overpowering offensive presence who led the Oilers from their “decade of darkness” into perennial contention for the Stanley Cup.

One of the greatest players in NHL history, McDavid is without question the best player to be selected first overall since 2010. At the peak of his powers, the 28-year-old Oilers' superstar should remain the predominant star in the league for the foreseeable future.

Auston Matthews (2016)

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Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid is the best player chosen first overall since 2010. However, Auston Matthews has established himself as the best goal scorer of this era, becoming a franchise player since his first season with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2016-17.

Selected first overall in 2016, Matthews scored 40 goals in 2016-17 to win the Calder Memorial Trophy. Along with fellow young guns Mitch Marner and William Nylander, he helped the Leafs reach the playoffs that season.

It was the start of a nine-season postseason streak for the Maple Leafs. Meanwhile, Matthews became a league superstar. Between 2019-20 and 2023-24, he exceeded the 40-goal plateau five times, including 60 goals in 2021-22 and a career-best 69 in 2023-24.

Matthews joined Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin as the only players to win the Maurice Richard Trophy at least three times. He also won the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award in 2021-22, and holds the single-season franchise goal record.

Now captain of the Maple Leafs, Matthews faces ongoing pressure from Toronto fans to lead the club to its first Stanley Cup since 1967. While the Leafs have only reached the second round twice since 2017, having Matthews in the lineup gives them their best chance of snapping their long Cup drought.

Nico Hischier (2017)

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The first of two first-overall picks in three years by the New Jersey Devils, Nico Hischier was ranked No. 2 among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting. After eight NHL seasons, he's become a leader for the Devils and one of the best two-way forwards in the league.

Hischier had a promising rookie campaign in 2017-18 with 20 goals and 52 points in 82 games. However, injuries and inconsistency hampered his play over the next three seasons

By 2021-22, Hischier had come into his own as a solid two-way center. He has reached or exceeded 60 points in each season since, including a career-best 80 points in 2022-23 as he led the Devils to a franchise-record 112-point performance.

Captain of the Devils since 2021-22, Hischier is an invaluable member of the Devils. His two-way game is garnering recognition. In 2022-23, he was runner-up for the Frank J. Selke Trophy and finished among the voters in 2024-25.

The Devils reached the playoffs in two of the last three seasons. They will look to Hischier's leadership and on-ice skills to guide them to the next level as Stanley Cup contenders.

Rasmus Dahlin (2018)

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The past 15 years have been difficult for the Buffalo Sabres. Since 2011-12, they've missed the playoffs an NHL-record 14 straight years. During that time, they also traded away former first-rounders Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens, and Matthew Savoie.

To lead them out of the wilderness, the Sabres have turned to Rasmus Dahlin. Chosen first overall in 2018, he's emerged as an elite defenseman throughout his seven NHL seasons.

Dahlin's 44 points in his rookie season made him a finalist for the Calder Memorial Trophy in 2018-19. Over the following six seasons, he'd exceed the 40-point plateau five times, including a career-high 73 points in 2022-23 and a 68-point effort in 2024-25.

In 2024-25, the Sabres named Dahlin as team captain. It's a testament to the improvement of his overall game and his willingness to lead on and off the ice. Now 25, he's approaching the prime of his playing career.

Dahlin has developed into a top-tier puck-moving defenseman on a struggling Sabres team. He's proven his worth as a first-overall pick and could have better days ahead if he can lead his club into playoff contention.

Jack Hughes (2019)

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Selecting first overall for the second time in three years, the New Jersey Devils chose center Jack Hughes. Considered the top prospect by NHL Central Scouting in their 2019 draft rankings, the swift-skating, highly-skilled forward has become the Devils' offensive engine.

It took Hughes three seasons to come into his own as a top-tier NHL scorer. He managed 21 points in his rookie season, followed by 31 points during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign. A dislocated shoulder and sprained knee limited him to 26 goals and 59 points in 49 games in 2021-22

Hughes had his breakout performance in 2022-23 with 43 goals and 56 assists for 99 points in 78 games as the Devils enjoyed a franchise-best 112-point season. His disciplined play made him a finalist that season for the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy.

Injuries have hampered Hughes over the past two seasons. He had 27 goals and 74 points in 62 games in 2023-24 as the Devils missed the playoffs. In 2024-25, he had 70 points in 62 games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury.

When healthy, Hughes has the skills to become an NHL superstar. The Devils miss his production when he's out of the lineup. If he can avoid further serious injuries, he could one day lead them on a Stanley Cup run.

Alexis Lafreniere (2020)

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The top North American prospect in NHL Central Scouting's final rankings for 2020, Alexis Lafrenière was chosen first overall by the New York Rangers. His skills and competitiveness were among the factors cited as the young left winger was considered a force that could impact a game.

Lafrenière joined the Rangers in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, but he's encountered difficulties playing up to expectations. The Rangers' depth at left wing has kept him from his natural position, resulting in his usage as a right winger.

After showing slow but steady improvement through his first three seasons, Lafrenière seemed poised to break out following his promising 28-goal, 57-point performance in 2023-24. He followed that with a strong postseason, finishing with eight goals and 14 points in 16 playoff games.

The Rangers rewarded Lafrenière with a seven-year contract, paying him an average annual value of $7.5 million. However, his performance regressed last season, finishing with 45 points. He also became the occasional subject of trade speculation.

Lafrenière's NHL career has been disappointing thus far, but it's too early to consider him a bust as a first-overall pick. The 23-year-old winger still has time to take his game to the next level if he can settle into a regular role among the Rangers' top-six forwards.

Owen Power (2021)

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After choosing Rasmus Dahlin first overall in 2018, the Buffalo Sabres opted for another defenseman by selecting Owen Power with the top pick in the 2021 draft. NHL Central Scouting named him as the top prospect among North American skaters in their final rankings for 2021.

The 6'6” Power's agile skating, strong hockey sense, and maturity were cited as the reasons why he was atop his draft class. He had 35 points in his first full NHL season (2022-23), followed by 33 points in his sophomore campaign and 40 points last season.

Power, 22, has the time and skills to blossom into a reliable top-pairing defenseman. He's well-regarded by Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff and his teammates, who praised the work he's done to improve this game.

However, Ruff noted other elements of Power's game still needed work. He must get stronger and improve his physicality and defensive game. He must also learn to step up his play in big-game situations.

The Sabres acquired veteran defenseman Michael Kesselring from the Utah Mammoth as part of the return for winger JJ Peterka. He's expected to be paired as the right-shot defenseman alongside Power, which could help the latter improve his performance.

Juraj Slafkovsky (2022)

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Entering the 2022 NHL Draft, it was expected that the Montreal Canadiens would use the first-overall pick to select promising two-way center Shane Wright of the OHL's Kingston Frontenacs. Instead, the Canadiens opted for big winger Juraj Slafkovský, ranked the top international player by NHL Central Scouting.

Slafkovský's size, power-forward potential, and his MVP performance in the 2022 Winter Olympics tipped the scales in his favor. He made his NHL debut in 2022-23 with 10 points in 39 games before a knee injury ended his season.

The past two seasons have been promising, but inconsistent for the 21-year-old Slafkovský. He was somewhat erratic in the first half of each campaign, but improved during the second half. He had 20 goals and 50 points in his sophomore campaign, and 51 points last season.

At 6'3” and 225 pounds, Slafkovský has the size and strength to be an outstanding power forward. He's about to enter his fourth NHL season, but is still young and remains a work in progress. The big winger has improved other areas of his game, using his size to win more puck battles.

Since 2023-24, Slafkovský has benefited from playing on the Canadiens' top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Patience remains the watchword, but the best seems yet to come from the big winger.

Connor Bedard (2023)

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The most anticipated prospect since Connor McDavid in 2015, Connor Bedard was the obvious choice for the Chicago Blackhawks with the first-overall pick in 2023. His dominating performance in the CHL and the 2023 World Juniors made him the top prospect in his draft class.

Cited by NHL scouts for his elite skills and attributes, Bedard drew comparisons to McDavid. He also made CHL history, becoming the first prospect to be the top scorer, top prospect, and player of the year. No wonder, then, he was considered a generational talent.

Bedard wasted little time making an impact with Chicago. He won the Calder Memorial Trophy, leading his club and all NHL rookies that season with 61 points despite missing 14 games with a fractured jaw.

Last season was a disappointment for Bedard and his club. He led them again in scoring with 67 points, but his production wasn't at the level expected, partly because of the limited talent surrounding him.

Now 20, Bedard enters his third NHL season facing greater expectations with a still-rebuilding Chicago team. He'll have to carry the load offensively while taking his game to a higher level. The young center has the potential to do that, and his efforts this season will determine how much his team improves.

Macklin Celebrini (2024)

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The first player ever chosen first overall by the San Jose Sharks in franchise history, Macklin Celebrini was the top prospect among North American skaters in the 2024 draft class. The young center was that year's winner of the Hobey Baker Memorial Award as the top NCAA hockey player.

Celebrini was considered an NHL all-star in the making. Scouts cites his ability to thrive in any situation, his two-way skills and his willingness to meet challenges.

Despite missing 12 games early last season to a hip injury, Celebrini quickly proved that he belonged in the NHL. The youngster led the rebuilding Sharks with 63 points and finished third among rookie scorers, becoming a finalist for the Calder Memorial Trophy.

It was a promising start for Celebrini, raising expectations as he heads into his sophomore campaign in 2025-26. The 19-year-old will be centering the Sharks' top line, and will face more attention as rival clubs focus on neutralizing him.

Celebrini is the foundation for the Sharks' rebuilding program. If he avoids the sophomore slump and builds on last season's efforts, it'll help accelerate his club's development while elevating him closer to the league's elite stars.

Stats and trophy information via NHL.com. Other info via Daily Faceoff, PuckPedia, and Hockey-Reference.com.