Answering Fantasy Football’s Hardest Questions in 2025

Christmas is almost here.

No, not that Christmas. Pretty sure that’s still in December.

NFL training camps are underway. Soon the preseason will be here. Fantasy draft season will come with it. And that, dear reader, is Christmas for fantasy managers: a chance to start anew and begin another quest for a championship.

Some drafts have already taken place—when you reach the level of fantasy degenerate that some have, August can’t wait. By mid-July, it’s into the fray, even if some of those drafts look laughable a month later.

But for those still making preparations to draft, there are questions galore. And the answers to those questions can be the difference between success and failure. Victory and defeat.

If managers land that coveted first overall pick, who should be selected with it? What’s the best strategy at each position this year? Who are players who can be targeted in a position of value? The busts who could derail a season almost before it starts?

If only those answers were available somewhere...

Which Player Should Be the No. 1 Overall Pick in Fantasy Drafts?

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Ja'Marr Chase

Might as well start with the most difficult question of them all.

Some years, there is a unanimous No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts. In others, there are just a couple of viable candidates.

That’s not the case in 2025. There are a handful of players with at least some claim to being taken first overall. This analyst has already seen several come off the board at No. 1, including a bit of a surprise in a draft a couple of days ago.

WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: Probably the safest of the potential No. 1 picks. Chase likely isn’t going to repeat his triple-crown-winning 127/1,708/17 stat line from a year ago or finish as the top fantasy receiver by over 80 PPR points again. But he has been a top-six fantasy wideout in PPR points per game in three of the past four seasons, and Joe Burrow will target him early and often.

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: If taking a running back first overall is more your speed, then Robinson is probably your best bet. Last year’s fantasy RB4, he piled up over 1,400 yards on the ground, caught 60 passes and found the end zone 15 times. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris also showed a willingness to give him a heavy workload. That workload (360-plus touches) is a bit of a concern, so target Tyler Allgeier as insurance in the later rounds.

WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: Jefferson was the runner-up to Chase last year with 103 catches for over 1,500 yards and 10 scores, and back in 2022 he caught 128 balls for 1,809 yards and finished as fantasy’s No. 1 receiver. However, the sixth-year veteran missed seven games two years ago, and with J.J. McCarthy taking over under center in Minnesota in 2025, there are some concerns about his quarterback situation.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: It probably shouldn’t be all that surprising to see Gibbs go first overall in some drafts—he led all running backs in PPR points a year ago after topping 1,400 yards on the ground, averaging a robust 5.6 yards per carry, catching 52 passes for the second straight year and scoring a gaudy 20 touchdowns. But the return of a healthy David Montgomery could cause him to lose some touches.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: This is not a pick for the faint of heart. McCaffrey has a lengthy injury, and if he misses time, it’s usually a lot—including 13 missed games a year ago. That’s a season-killer. However, if he stays healthy, he’s also capable of ridiculous numbers; two years ago, he was fantasy’s No. 1 back by over 100 PPR points.

At this point, many are likely wondering where Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is. Don’t worry, he’ll be making an appearance later. With the busts. Drafters want no part of Barkley first overall.

What's the Best Fantasy Draft Strategy at Quarterback in 2025?

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Dak Prescott

There’s no question that quarterback is the most important position in the NFL. But fantasy managers persistently overvalue the position.

Elite fantasy QBs generally post a ton of points, but fantasy value isn’t determined by how many points a player scores. It’s a matter of how many points they score relative to the other players at that position. And the gap between the No. 1 quarterback (the “best” starter) and the No. 12 quarterback (the “worst” starter) isn’t as big as at running back or wide receiver.

Never mind that the first quarterback drafted almost never finishes in that spot. Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills was the first quarterback drafted on average a year ago. He finished fourth in fantasy points.

The “edge” gained at quarterback by using a Round 2 pick on Allen or Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens isn’t worth the hole it leaves at running back or wide receiver. Wait until the back half of the top-10 at position. Wait even longer. Build a solid stable of backs and receivers.

Viable fantasy starters will be available.

Quarterback Targets

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: QB4, 41st Overall): If fantasy managers have to have an elite signal-caller, Hurts is the best value of the high-end options with considerable rushing upside. If the Eagles get down to the one-yard line, it’s “Brotherly Shove” time, which resulted in 14 rushing touchdowns last season.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (ADP: QB8, 80th Overall): After a rough start to his rookie season, the lightbulb came on for Nix last year—over the second half of the 2024 season he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in fantasy points per game. He was also eighth among all QBs in rushing yards in 2024, with 430 yards on the ground.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: QB14, 105th Overall): Yes, Prescott’s 2024 campaign was an injury-marred mess. But as recently as two years ago, he was third in passing yards, led the NFL in touchdown passes and was third at his position in fantasy points. The Cowboys could also be among the NFL’s pass-heaviest teams this season.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (ADP: QB25, 154th Overall): Fantasy managers appear unable to put Young’s 2024 benching out of their heads. But when he returned to the starting lineup he was a different player; from Week 12 on, he was quietly ninth among quarterbacks in fantasy points and should benefit from an improved offense in 2025.

What's the Best Fantasy Draft Strategy at Running Back in 2025?

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Chase Brown

There are strategies galore at running back for fantasy managers this year. All have their benefits and drawbacks.

There’s Robust RB, where fantasy managers attack the position early and draft a pair of high-end options. The goal is to mitigate risk and avoid the RB Dead Zone (an area of drafts in the middle rounds where running back bust rates are far higher than at wide receiver). The downside is a potential deficiency at wide receiver and the fact that either an elite quarterback or elite tight end is off the table.

There’s Hero RB, where drafters take one high-end back and then fill out the rest of the starting lineup (or at least most of it) before drafting an RB2. The hope is having the best of both worlds—a solid backfield without making a sacrifice at another position. The biggest risk is that if that Hero back busts, you have serious problems.

Then there’s Zero RB, which is exactly how it sounds. Drafters punt running back altogether. Slam away at wide receiver. Grab a high-end tight end and/or quarterback. And then bang away at upside plays and backups one injury away from a featured role in the later rounds. If it pans out, it can create a buzzsaw of a team. But it’s a high-risk strategy, especially as it has become more popular and demand for late-round “sleepers” and early-season waiver targets has increased.

All three strategies can be viable. It’s a matter of tolerance for risk and an individual’s confidence level in finding value at running back vs. wide receiver in the later rounds.

Just know going in that by the time you hit RB20 or so (on the Round 4-5 turn) that the question marks at the position start adding up PDQ.

Running Back Targets

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: RB11, 26th Overall): Frankly, Brown probably won’t make it into the third round of many drafts. But if he does, he’s an ideal target for managers who want to attack wide receiver early—he was sixth in PPR points among running backs from Week 8 on last season.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (ADP: RB15, 43rd Overall): Kamara’s ADP is one of this season’s more confusing at running back. Yes, the Saints will probably be poo in 2025. But it’s not like they weren’t last season, and he set a career high in rushing yards and ranked fifth among all running backs in fantasy points per game.

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (ADP: RB29, 78th Overall): Pollard appears to inspire about as much confidence in fantasy managers as a trip to the orthodontist—minus the Novocain. But the seventh-year veteran has gained over 1,000 yards on the ground three years running and should see a featured back workload again in 2025.

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: RB33, 96th Overall): Between a rotten 2024 season and offseason trade rumors, Etienne has been relegated to the fringes of fantasy relevance in the backfield. But new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen has refuted the trade speculation, and Etienne operated as Jacksonville’s lead back in OTAs.

What's the Best Fantasy Draft Strategy at Wide Receiver in 2025?

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Tre Harris

With pass-heavy offenses more rule than exception in 2025, most fantasy leagues now featuring PPR scoring and many formats requiring at least three starters at the position, the value of wide receivers have increased in fantasy. Six of the top-nine picks on average in 2025 are wideouts.

Wide receivers (as a whole) are less injury-prone than running backs. They also have (as a whole) lower bust rates than running backs. And wideouts (as a whole) score more points than running backs with the benefit of a point per reception.

That makes it all the more imperative to assemble a solid cadre of wideouts on draft day. For many managers, that means attacking the position early at the expense of running backs with a Hero RB or Zero RB build. But wide receiver is also a deeper position than running back, and there are value plays available in the middle rounds.

For this guy, it’s important to have one “anchor” wideout drafted by Round 3. The longer the wait until the first wideout is drafted, the shorter the gap before that second one comes on board. However, I’m not averse to some patience with my WR3 if it means my running backs are squared away—or even platooning that spot and my flex.

There’s no argument that wide receivers are important. But there also isn’t a position with more flexibility in fantasy.

Wide Receiver Targets

Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: WR18, 36th Overall)

Age is most assuredly a thing in fantasy football drafts. Once a player hits 30-plus, it’s off to the home for him. But even in a chaotic 2024 season split between Las Vegas and New York, Adams finished 12th in PPR points among wideouts and surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth straight year.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: WR20, 40th Overall)

Speaking of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, the next time Evans doesn’t have one will be the first, and he has played in the NFL for 11 seasons. He can be rather high-variance from week to week, but at season’s end, the numbers are usually there—top-12 fantasy production in four of the last five years.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: WR46, 106th Overall)

Last year, Downs caught 72 passes for 803 yards and five touchdowns on the way to a WR35 PPR fantasy finish, and that was with Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco’s corpse under center. Assuming Daniel Jones wins the quarterback competition in Indy, he’s an improvement—and Downs should benefit from that.

Tre Harris, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: WR54, 135th Overall)

Harris made a recent appearance in a Sleeper column here at Bleacher Report, but after Mike Williams retired last week, more fantasy managers are likely to wake up where the rookie is concerned. Harris is Quentin Johnston away from being the Chargers’ No. 2 receiver and potentially the highest-scoring first-year wideout in 2025.

What's the Best Fantasy Draft Strategy at Tight End in 2025?

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Kyle Pitts

Welcome to the tight end position—the nightmare fuel of fantasy football. With the reign of King Travis I of Kansas City seemingly over after rookies claimed the top spot each of the past two years, the position is more maddening than ever.

There are, for all intents and purposes, three potential paths.

The first is the Three Amigos—Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders, Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals and George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. The upside to the path (in theory) is consistent, high-end production. The downside is that all three are usually gone by early in Round 4. Spending a pick that high on a tight end has consequences at other positions.

The second is the middle ground: Tier 2 tight ends in the TE4-TE9 range. The hope with this group is finding a player who posts top-five fantasy numbers rounds after Bowers and McBride are drafted. With that said, hope and certainty are not the same thing—there’s increased possibility of drafting a bust.

Or, fantasy managers can just say “To heck with it” and punt tight end. Wait until the double-digit rounds to take a late swing at a couple of upside plays. If they don’t pan out, no draft was ever lost by a 10th-round pick. But leagues have been lost by teams with glaring holes at the position. Hit on a late-rounder who becomes a solid weekly starter though, and jackpot.

The middle ground appears the best combination of risk meets reward, but this is fantasy football—there’s more than one way to build a winner.

Tight End Targets

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: TE3, 39th Overall): Kittle is far and away the elder statesman of the top tier of tight ends, and he has an injury history—his last season without missing a game was in 2018. But when healthy, he has a legitimate chance of finishing as fantasy’s top tight end, and he’s coming off the board over a round after Trey McBride.

Evan Engram, Denver Broncos (ADP: TE8, 85th Overall): There’s already some ADP creep happening with Engram—and for good reason. Yes, his 2024 season with the Jaguars was an injury-marred mess, but two years ago, he had more receptions than all but one wide receiver in the AFC and led all tight ends in that conference in PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: TE16, 132nd Overall): Like his quarterback, Ferguson’s 2024 season was a forgettable one: 59 catches, less than 500 yards and zero trips to the end zone. But two years ago, a healthy Ferguson was a top-10 fantasy producer, and a repeat of that finish is well within reason.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: TE18, 146th Overall): I know. It makes me a little queasy, too. But as “bad” as Pitts was a year ago, he still finished multiple slots ahead of this. He is being drafted under his floor because fantasy managers are mad that he hasn’t been the superstar he was drafted to be. Take advantage of that.

Who are Fantasy Football's Must-Avoid Busts in 2025?

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Saquon Barkley

Before we get to this year’s season-sinking busts, a bit about the draft strategy that will send your team to the bottom of the league: rigidity.

If fantasy managers enter a draft intent on a certain strategy or determined to obtain a certain player, they are setting themselves up for failure. If the plan is Zero RB from the No. 9 hole and seven of the first eight picks are wideouts, there are two choices: pivot or miss out on value.

If a drafter is set on playing “QB Chicken” and being the last team to take a starter and Lamar Jackson is there in Round 6, there are two choices: pivot or miss out on value.

Every draft is different. Unexpected things will happen. Drafters need to be willing to flexible and let the draft come to them and take value (at whatever position) where they can get it.

Value wins championships. Stubbornness does not.

2025 Fantasy Busts

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: QB1, 23rd Overall): Jackson has crept past Josh Allen and into the top spot among quarterbacks, and he led all signal-callers in fantasy points last year. But there’s no value in drafting a quarterback in Round 2 in a one-QB format—he has to smash again just to justify his asking price.

RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: RB1, 2nd Overall): Drafting Barkley in Round 1 is going to be the death of many a fantasy team this year. His 2024 workload. Rushing for 2,000 yards. Leading the NFL in rushing. All portend a significant drop in fantasy production this season. Thirty percent is the best-case scenario. That’s not a typo.

WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans (ADP: WR7, 13th Overall): Collins posted his second consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2024. But he also missed five games—the fourth time in as many seasons he has missed multiple contests. Add in a lower yards per reception and more competition for targets, and he is being overdrafted.

WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: WR14, 28th Overall): That Hill’s ADP is this low demonstrates a level of skepticism about the 31-year-old after a down 2024 campaign. But even this asking price is too high. He appeared to have lost a step last year, and both his commitment to the Dolphins and Miami’s offense are legitimate questions.

TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: TE5, 65th Overall): Last year, Hockenson barely cracked 450 receiving yards and failed to score a touchdown. But the 28-year-old is being drafted like he’s guaranteed to return to being the player who led all NFC tight ends in PPR points in 2023 before tearing up his knee. It’s a classic example of drafting at ceiling.

Drafting at ceiling is bad, mmmkay?

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.