1 X-Factor That Can Significantly Impact Each NFL Division Race in 2025

Every offseason, NFL general managers tweak rosters to build a stronger team than the previous year's group. In some cases, you can pick out star acquisitions as difference-makers; in others, the biggest X-factor isn't clear.

Compared to last year, we can expect changes in the 2025 postseason picture and different scenarios for division title races, but who or what will impact critical matchups throughout the campaign?

Here, we've highlighted the biggest X-factor that could affect each division race for the upcoming term.

These selections focus on roster acquisitions, projected new starters and the potential development or decline of players in key positions.

AFC East: Josh McDaniels' Play-Calling Impact on Patriots QB Drake Maye

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Patriots OC Josh McDaniels (left) and QB Deake Maye

Josh McDaniels has been fired twice as a head coach, but he's a far better offensive coordinator.

Yes, he benefited from Tom Brady's run with the New England Patriots, but the longtime play-caller fielded the No. 6-scoring offense with Mac Jones under center in 2021.

That year, the then-rookie threw for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions with a 67.6 percent completion rate, earning a Pro Bowl nod.

Returning for his third stint as the Patriots' offensive coordinator, McDaniels has a quarterback in Drake Maye who's more athletic and has a stronger arm than Jones. So, New England can be creative with its offensive designs.

As a rookie, the North Carolina product showcased his playmaking ability in moments despite a below-average pass-catching group. Tight end Hunter Henry led the Patriots in targets (97) and receiving yards (674) and tied slot receiver DeMario Douglas for a team-leading 66 receptions.

This offseason, New England signed wideouts Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins and drafted running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams. They also added rookie first-round left tackle Will Campbell, right tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury.

Maye will have a stable group of playmakers and strong perimeter pass protection.

Considering what McDaniels did with Jones and an average supporting cast, he could help Maye make a significant second-year leap with this personnel group. If so, the Patriots will be the biggest threat to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.

AFC North: Steelers' New-Look Offense Jelling in Win-Now Mode

AP Photo/Matt Freed

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't ranked higher than 16th in scoring or total yards since the 2020 season. They had a much-needed offensive overhaul this offseason.

They signed quarterback Aaron Rodgers and acquired two-time Pro Bowl wideout DK Metcalf and Pro Bowl tight end Jonnu Smith.

Rodgers, 41, is at the end of his career, but he's more equipped to optimize the talent at receiver and tight end than Mason Rudolph.

According to The Athletic's Mike DeFabo, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to find a "middle ground" between a pass-heavy and run-heavy approach.

Thus far, Pittsburgh hasn't brought in any notable veterans who played with Rodgers in Green Bay, unlike the New York Jets did after acquiring him. The 21-year veteran must build a rapport with new faces as the Steelers try to give him an effective ground attack.

Rodgers told The Pat McAfee Show he's going to work with several Steelers receivers in Malibu, California. His chemistry with that unit could be the difference between a push for the AFC North title and a team that hovers around .500 for another wild-card berth.

AFC South: Texans' Revamped Offensive Line

AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper

Texans OL Tytus Howard

The Houston Texans reconstructed their offensive line after quarterback C.J. Stroud took the second-most sacks (52) last season. They finished 19th and 22nd in scoring and total yards, respectively, for the 2024 term.

Based on the Texans' offseason moves, they felt the offensive line was a big reason for the team's overall struggles on that side of the ball.

In a surprise move, they traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders. They also sent guard Kenyon Green to the Philadelphia Eagles and cut guard Shaq Mason.

Houston signed left tackle Cam Robinson and guard Laken Tomlinson, drafted tackle Aireontae Ersery and acquired guard Ed Ingram from the Minnesota Vikings. Tytus Howard will move to right guard. Blake Fisher, a 2024 second-rounder, will have an opportunity to earn the starting job at right tackle. Trent Brown can provide depth at both tackle spots.

The Texans have a mix of experienced veterans, developing talent and a versatile starter in Howard who can play four positions within the offensive-line group. The players will sort out who earns the starting positions at training camp. Regardless, the team needs that unit to protect Stroud at all costs.

If the quarterback takes excessive hits like last year, the offense will have another mediocre season in the passing game, especially with new receivers set to take on prominent roles.

Stroud must establish his timing with Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.

AFC West: Chargers' Reinforced Physical Offensive Identity

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh

Wherever head coach Jim Harbaugh goes, he instills toughness in his football team. In one year under him, the Los Angeles Chargers went from last to second place in the AFC West and became a playoff-caliber squad.

They bowed out of the playoffs in a lopsided 32-12 loss to the Houston Texans, but they're coming back with a bigger, stronger team, specifically on offense in 2025.

Los Angeles signed 6'7", 363-pound guard Mekhi Becton, bruising running back Najee Harris, pass-catching tight end Tyler Conklin and brought back 6'4", 218-pound wide receiver Mike Williams.

In the draft, the Chargers added more size and physicality to the skill positions, taking Omarion Hampton (6'0", 220 lbs) in the first round and 6'3", 210-pound wideout Tre Harris in the second round.

With these acquisitions, Harbaugh can build on what he started in Los Angeles last season.

Becton, Harris and Hampton will bolster the ground attack, which finished 17th in yards for the 2024 term. Williams, Harris and Conklin will be big targets who can exploit matchups against smaller defensive backs.

With 6'6", 236-pound quarterback Justin Herbert, big-bodied playmakers and a defense that gave up the fewest points last season, the Chargers will be able to impose their will on opponents in the upcoming season.

As we've seen in the past, the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled against teams that dominate at the line of scrimmage and pressure Patrick Mahomes. Under Harbaugh, the Chargers are built to end the Chiefs' nine-year reign as AFC West champions.

NFC East: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott's Durability

AP Photo/LM Otero

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

Between 2021 and 2023, Dak Prescott missed six games, and the Dallas Cowboys went 12-5 for three consecutive seasons, winning two NFC East titles.

Last year, the quarterback missed nine games, and the Cowboys finished with a 7-10 record. With him healthy, Dallas may be an underrated team this year.

The Cowboys promoted Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach, replacing Mike McCarthy. So, they can carry over some of what was effective under the former coach, specifically in the passing game.

In 2021 and 2023, Dallas fielded a top-three passing offense. As a Pro Bowler, Prescott led the league in touchdown passes (36) for the 2023 term.

With an underwhelming collection of running backs, Dallas will likely rely heavily on Prescott's arm this year. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders are coming off a down season. Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah are Day 3 rookies. Deuce Vaughn has 50 career touches in two campaigns.

If Prescott stays healthy, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens could be one of the league's most productive wide receiver duos.

Though the Washington Commanders have earned the buzz following an improbable run to the NFC Championship Game, watch out for the Cowboys' bounce-back season if Prescott can stay on the field.

NFC North: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy's Early Development

AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy is one of the biggest X-factors across the league. He sat out his rookie season because of a torn meniscus and has the pressure of taking over an offense that ranked ninth in scoring and 12th in total yards last season.

However, the Vikings have the personnel group in place to help the 22-year-old's development.

He'll have a dynamic receiver duo with two-time All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson and budding third-year wideout Jordan Addison on the perimeter. By December, two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson will be two years removed from a torn ACL and MCL.

Minnesota also bolstered its offensive line with the addition of four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly, rookie first-round guard Donovan Jackson and fifth-year veteran guard Will Fries. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason can lead a complementary ground game.

McCarthy led Michigan to a national title in his final collegiate year, but he's still had to answer critics who question his ability to lead a robust passing attack.

"A lot of [the public doubt] just comes with the stigma of playing at Michigan and not throwing the ball a lot," he told reporters.

In his first year as a starter in Minnesota, McCarthy shouldn't have to carry the offense with his arm or try to match what Sam Darnold did with the team in a 2024 Pro Bowl year.

McCarthy just needs to avoid egregious mistakes and put the ball in the right spots for his playmakers. If he does that, the Vikings won't see much offensive drop-off from last year and remain in contention for a division title.

NFC South: Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.'s Year 2 Progress

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.

Like McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. had to wait for his opportunity to start under center.

The Atlanta Falcons benched Kirk Cousins for the 2024 No. 8 overall pick in Week 16 last season, and he provided an immediate spark to the passing attack.

Between Weeks 16 and 18, the Falcons averaged 32 points per game. Penix threw for three touchdowns and three interceptions with a 58 percent completion rate, averaging nearly 246 passing yards in that stretch. Defenders had to respect his ability to throw downfield more than they did with Cousins, who played through shoulder and elbow injuries.

Going through a full offseason as the starter, the Washington product should be more efficient in the pocket. He will have a stronger rapport with his receivers and a better understanding of the offense.

After suffering four consecutive season-ending injuries at Indiana, Penix showed he can post gaudy stat lines and spread the ball in two collegiate terms with the Huskies.

If he stays healthy, his progress in Year 2 could help Atlanta break its four-year pattern of seven-to-eight-win seasons to compete for an NFC South title.

NFC West: Christian McCaffrey's Workload and Availability

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

Through eight years under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers have been Super Bowl contenders or a sub-.500 team, winning 10 or more games in four seasons and fewer than six contests in the other four terms.

The 49ers went through a tough stretch of quarterback injuries, particularly with Jimmy Garoppolo, but Brock Purdy's unforeseen rise up the depth chart has stabilized the position over the past few seasons.

The 25-year-old helps the 49ers remain competitive, but Christian McCaffrey can take this team over the top.

San Francisco acquired the three-time Pro Bowler in the middle of the 2022 campaign, and he changed the complexion of the team's offense and season outlook.

After a 3-3 start in 2022, the 49ers went 10-1 after they acquired McCaffrey. The star running back won the 2023 rushing title, helping the team advance to the Super Bowl.

Without McCaffrey for most of the previous season, Purdy posted decent numbers (3,864 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions), but the 49ers didn't field a dominant ground game, which is a staple in Shanahan's offense.

The coach insinuated that the 49ers could limit McCaffrey's workload following his injury-riddled year, but the team needs to find a healthy balance with him on the field in crucial stretches.

The 49ers' 2025 outlook hinges on McCaffrey's availability and how many touches he can handle, given eight years of wear and tear on his body.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.