Ranking New NFL Head Coaches Based on Possibility of Success in Year 1

More than ever, the NFL stands for "not for long." Though that statement has morphed slightly into, "What have you done for me lately?"

Each NFL franchise is a billion-dollar industry that demands results. Thus, every person within the organization, except the ownership group, operates on a year-to-year basis.

When looking at it through that lens, how incoming individuals are set up for success is as critical as their ability to communicate to the locker room and design schemes. Last season, Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo lasted one season before being fired. The patience once seen in the league allowing new coaches to grow into their roles is a luxury in today's game. Results are necessary sooner rather than later.

Seven new head coaches are implementing their philosophies and approaches this offseason. If history is any indication, only one or two will still be at their current post five years from now. A strong start can lay the groundwork for long-term success.

In 2025, which of the current incoming crop of head coaches is poised to be the most successful (listed in descending order)?

7. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman

Kellen Moore was the last head coach hire in this offseason's cycle, because he served as the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive coordinator and helped his previous team win Super Bowl LIX.

Moore left the best situation in football for the worst. Currently, the Saints have the longest betting odds to win a championship entering the 2025 campaign. Their roster is generally viewed as the league's worst as well.

Not to pile on, but New Orleans doesn't have an answer quarterback, either.

Obviously, Moore's skill set as a bright offensive mind should help matters. At the same time, the Saints don't have an established veteran behind center after Derek Carr's retirement and lack a top-shelf talent as a potential replacement.

The organization did sink a second-round pick into Louisville's Tyler Shough, though he'll be a 26-year-old rookie who only started for a full season once in college and has an extensive injury history. Spencer Rattler will compete for the job as well, but he struggled to show the ability to be a full-time starter during his rookie campaign.

The Saints still feature multiple proven veterans in defensive end Cameron Jordan, linebacker Demario Davis, defensive back Tyrann Matheiu and wide receiver Chris Olave. The front office also invested heavily in the squad's offensive line.

Despite those points, New Orleans finished 5-12 a season ago. Again, the Saints still don't have an answer at quarterback. Plus, they're now playing for a first-time head coach at any level. This sets up for a long-term rebuilding project, not instant winning.

PROJECTED RECORD: 3-14

6. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets

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Aaron Glenn is a potential culture-changer.

Glenn comes form Detroit where Dan Campbell and his staff helped change expectations for the Lions and their fans. Glenn played 15 years in the NFL. He understands the locker room and its players. He's also a demanding coach who spent the last four seasons as the Lions defensive coordinator, as the team improved from 3-13-1 to 15-2 in just four seasons.

The coach's path should serve as an indicator. The Jets could take a little time before they get off the ground, because they don't have an established pilot.

New York committed to Justin Fields as its starting quarterbacks. Fields is still 26 years old with immense upside. The Chicago Bears never fully committed to building around him, while the Pittsburgh Steelers preferred going the veteran route last season. Fields has a big opportunity in front of him. At the same time, Fields has something prove, and it starts with him being better from the pocket.

The Jets should cater the offensive scheme around the quarterback's elite athleticism. However, Fields will have to show he can help elevate everyone around him and compete with the AFC's group of elite quarterbacks. The likelihood of that happening isn't in the Jets' favor.

New York even prepared for this contingency since the Jets can get out of the quarterback's contract by cutting him next offseason with a June 1 designation and saving $10 million toward the 2026 salary cap.

The key this season is simply trying to get the offense to play complementary football with a defense that finished third overall last season.

PROJECTED RECORD: 6-11

5. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/John Raoux

Liam Coen got exactly what he wanted: He became the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars after balking at the idea until the organization fired Trent Baalke. In fact, the team's ownership group had to reassess its situation after multiple candidates pulled their names out of consideration.

Eventually, Coen agreed to terms and James Gladstone was hired to take over general manager duties.

The four-win Jaguars were one of the NFL's biggest disappointments during the 2024 campaign. Prior to the start of the season, owner Shad Khan placed hefty expectations upon the squad.

"Make no mistake, this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever," Khan told reporters in August. "Best players, best coaches. But most importantly, let's prove it by winning now."

Is Coen the right man to finally get this franchise on track? Specifically, can he get Trevor Lawrence to become the quarterback that most expected he'd be when the Jaguars choose him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft class?

Coen has never been a head coach at any level. He only had one year of experience as an offensive play-caller at the NFL level. He does present an outstanding pedigree and has the potential to unlock Lawrence.

After trading up to select Travis Hunter with this year's second overall pick, Jacksonville has the offensive firepower to compete with the AFC's elite. The talent level hasn't dipped since Khan made his proclamation. But a first-time head coach, alongside a neophyte general manager, with first-year offensive and defensive coordinators can create enthusiasm yet present huge margins of error.

PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9

4. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Mike Vrabel's teams will always be extremely well-prepared and play a tough brand of football.

The New England Patriots will benefit greatly from Vrabel's regimented approach after being in disarray this past season and faltering dramatically from a talent perspective.

As to the last point, the Patriots have done an excellent job fortifying their roster this offseason after the organization found its franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, whom the team chose with the third overall pick in the 2024 draft.

Maye won't have be forced to shoulder the entire offense after New England added wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams, running back TreVeyon Henderson, left tackle Will Campbell, right tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury. The Patriots may not be as explosive as the Bills or Dolphins, but Maye and Co. should be able to do so damage now.

The defense received nearly as much of a boost with the acquisitions of defensive lineman Milton Williams, who signed the most lucrative deal on the free-agent market this offseason, edge-rusher Harold Landry III, nose tackle Khyiris Tonga, linebacker Robert Spillane and cornerback Carlton Davis III.

Vrabel's staffs excel at weekly preparation and situational football. With experienced coaching and an improved roster, the Patriots should start an upward trajectory.

PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9

3. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Ben Johnson has more than enough roster talent to coach the Chicago Bears to a winning record. He also has the task of pulling it all together and making the group a cohesive unit after the previous regime failed to do so.

No plan existed last year.

"At times, [Caleb] Williams said he would watch film alone, with no instruction or guidance from the coaches," ESPN's Seth Wickersham reported.

The rookie quarterback told his father, "No one tells me what to watch. I just turn it on."

The Bears are now pulling in the same direction with significant talent at multiple spots. This offseason, general manager Ryan Poles did all he could to make sure the Bears field an outstanding offensive line to help last year's No. 1 overall pick.

Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson should form an excellent offensive interior, as long as the trio stays relatively healthy. The second-round selection of Boston College's Ozzy Trapilo could challenge Braxton Jones to start at left tackle as well.

The Bears already had talent at the skill positions. Beyond Williams, D'Andre Swift is a capable weapon at running back. Wide receiver D.J. Moore has 966 or more receiving yards in five of his seven seasons. Rome Odunze is a recent top-10 selection. The Bears also added tight end Colston Loveland in this year's first round to go along with veteran Cole Kmet.

As long as the offense picks up—and it should with Johnson now calling the plays after being deemed one of the game's brightest offensive minds—Chicago's defense is more than capable of holding up its end of the bargain, especially after the hire of Dennis Allen as coordinator.

But a tough schedule may keep the Bears from 10 wins.

PROJECTED RECORD: 9-8

2. Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders

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Pete Carroll wasn't hired as the oldest head coach in NFL history for the Las Vegas Raiders to rebuild. Just win, baby, and now.

During an offseason with questionable moves to be made at quarterback, the Raiders completed the most practical transaction by trading for the 34-year-old Geno Smith. The 12-year-veteran can provide stability to a Raiders organization that has lacked it for multiple years.

Obviously, the quarterback's familiarity with Carroll after five years together in Seattle with the Seahawks should ease his transition to a new team since he already understands the coach's culture and what he plans to achieve. Smith experienced a career renaissance during that stretch and made the Pro Bowl in two of the last three seasons.

Granted, Smith is who he is, and he's not an elite quarterback with the skill set of a Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, who happen to play in the same division. However, Chip Kelly's hire as offensive coordinator, coupled with Carroll's preferred style of play, indicates a more physical brand of football in the Sin City. The selection of running back Ashton Jeanty with this year's sixth overall pick automatically places him in the spotlight as the team's offensive focal point.

The Raiders may lack some explosive qualities and proven capabilities among their wide receivers, but tight end Brock Bowers can make up for some of them with his dynamic talent.

Defensively, the Raiders are already feisty with a talented front led by Maxx Crosby. Patrick Graham remains in place as the play-caller.

Las Vegas isn't ready to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won nine straight division titles, but it's not difficult to imagine a world where Carroll's approach allows the Raiders to more than double last year's win total (4-13).

PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7

1. Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

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The Dallas Cowboys may have the most difficult path forward among the teams mentioned, being forced to deal with the reigning Super Bowl champions and the Jayden Daniels-led Washington Commanders in the same division. Yet the Boys also have the best quarterback and roster among the squads restarting with a new head coach.

Brian Schottenheimer was not the most inspired choice. Many see him as the next in a long line of yes men for owner/general manager Jerry Jones. Despite those perceptions, Schotteheimer has a lot in his favor upon taking the reins.

First, he already has an established familiarity with the organization and the team, having served on the coaching staff since the 2022 campaign. Second, the Cowboys averaged 10 wins per season during the Mike McCarthy era—which only ended because quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a severe hamstring injury in 2024. Finally, Schottenheimer is a legacy coach who can fall back on the tutelage he received from his late, great father, Marty.

Prescott is the primary key to the Cowboys' success, though. Prior to last season's injury, Dallas won 12 games in three consecutive seasons. The 31-year-old veteran led the NFL in touchdown passes with Schottenheimer serving as his offensive coordinator. Prescott has already proved himself as an excellent quarterback.

Furthermore, the Cowboys invested in positions around the quarterback this offseason. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders are talented running backs. Wide receiver George Pickens finally gives Dallas a true threat opposite CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys once again invested a first-round pick in an offensive line, with Tyler Booker set to fill in the void left by the incomparable Zack Martin.

With Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' new-look defense under coordinator Matt Eberflus added to the mix, Dallas is poised to win a high level this fall.

PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6