NBA Finals Bracket 2025 Odds, Box Score Predictions for Thunder vs. Pacers Game 6
It all comes down to this.
Maybe.
The 2025 NBA Finals could be decided Thursday night—but only if the Oklahoma City Thunder can score a road win over the Indiana Pacers. The Thunder do have a victory inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse already, though, and that came before the right calf strain Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton suffered in Game 5, which now has his Game 6 status in doubt.
Oklahoma City might be on the road, but Indiana is up against it, in other words.
With Haliburton iffy to go—and quite possibly limited even if he plays (he shot 0-for-6 in Game 5)—this game is a bit tricky to predict. Predict we must, though, while we lay out the latest odds and spotlight a couple of our favorite wagers on the board.
Game 6 Odds
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Spread: Oklahoma City (-6.5)
Over/Under: 221.5
Money Line: Oklahoma City (-250; bet $250 to win $100); Indiana (+205; bet $100 to win $205)
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 Points
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Assuming Haliburton isn't himself, the Pacers' path to victory here seems pretty straightforward. They need their role players to hit shots (and defend), and they need Pascal Siakam to be an absolute star.
That 21.5-point total seems daunting on the surface. It's a higher number than Siakam averaged this season (20.2), and a mark he's cleared only once in this series.
Saying that, he did surpass that figure in his most recent outing, popping off for 28 points (on 9-of-15 shooting, 3-of-6 from three) in Game 5, when Haliburton got hurt and Indiana shooters not named Siakam went 8-of-24 from distance.
He offers the Pacers their best shot at staying alive here, and they figure to involve him early and often on the offensive end.
Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 Rebounds
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This hasn't exactly been a banner series for Holmgren, who's averaging just 12.8 points while posting some abysmal shooting rates (37.3 percent overall, 14.3 percent from three). And yet, the stat sheet still swears he's been a difference-maker.
In fact, he's the series-leader—by a wide margin—in plus/minus (plus-35; Thunder reserve Aaron Wiggins is next at plus-25). Holmgren's activity on the glass appears a big reason why.
Despite collecting just six boards in each of the first two games, he is pacing everyone (again, by a healthy margin) with 48 rebounds. For the non-math majors in the audience, that means he has collected 36 rebounds over his last three contests.
So, if you take the over here, you're not looking for Holmgren to up his level of performance, as his merely maintaining this performance level would be enough for you to cash out.
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