The Biggest Flight Risks in 2025 NHL Free Agency

The 2025 NHL free-agent market opens July 1 at noon ET. Given the projected salary-cap jump from $88.5 million in 2024-25 to $95.5 million for 2025-26, the opening hours could be more frenzied than usual.

On June 10, we published our updated NHL Unrestricted Free Agent Big Board listing the top 20 players eligible for UFA status on July 1. However, that list could shrink as some of those players follow Brock Nelson's example by signing an extension with their current clubs.

Some players on that list, such as John Tavares of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars and Aaron Ekblad of the Florida Panthers, have indicated their willingness to re-sign before July 1. Should they go to market, they could still re-up with those teams.

However, most of the players on our UFA Big Board will likely sign with new clubs within hours of the market opening. Some will seek more money or longer term contracts, while others might benefit from a change of scenery, and still others might be looking for new opportunities.

Here is our list of five players we consider the biggest flight risks in this summer's UFA market.

Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks

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Barring a last-minute change of heart, the Vancouver Canucks will let Brock Boeser test the free-agent market. However, they haven't ruled out signing him if he doesn't find any offers to his liking.

Given the rise in the salary cap, it'll be surprising if Boeser doesn't receive lucrative offers on the open market. While the 28-year-old winger had a disappointing 25-goal, 50-point performance this season, he's a year removed from a career-best 40-goal, 73-point campaign.

In the eight seasons since Boeser made his full-time NHL debut, he's exceeded the 20-goal plateau six times and netted at least 45 points every year. He has a reputation as a streaky scorer, but those stats will still entice teams seeking offensive help.

Boeser is coming off a three-year contract with an average annual value of $6.7 million. On April 12, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported term, rather than dollars, was the issue. After being on short-term contracts, Boeser is seeking long-term security, something the Canucks seemed reluctant to give him.

He may return to the Canucks, though the chances are slim. He'll likely find teams with cap space seeking scoring punch willing to give him a seven-year deal worth an AAV of around $8.5 million.

Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

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A year ago, Nikolaj Ehlers was the subject of trade rumors as the draft approached. The Winnipeg Jets kept him for the final year of his contract, but an air of uncertainty over the 29-year-old winger's future hung over him throughout this season.

Ehlers spent 10 seasons with the Jets, sitting among their franchise leaders with 675 regular-season games played, 225 goals, 295 assists and 520 points. He's completed a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $6 million.

The Jets have over $26 million in salary-cap space. On May 21, general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said he hoped to sign the veteran winger to a deal that would make him a Jet for life.

However, with free agency beckoning in two weeks, there's no indication that a deal could be at hand.

Ehlers could find it tempting to see what offers are out there. With the rising cap likely to put more general managers into a spending mood, and the ongoing doubt about his future in Winnipeg, it wouldn't be shocking if he ends up with a new club.

Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers

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After spending 16 seasons with the Boston Bruins, Brad Marchand was shipped to the Florida Panthers at the March trade deadline. The 37-year-old winger is among the Panthers' leading scorers in this postseason.

On June 8, ESPN.com's Greg Wyshynski reported Marchand has considered re-signing with the Panthers, indicating they'll deal with that after the Stanley Cup Final. However, it could be difficult for them to retain the pesky winger.

Marchand has completed an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $6.2 million. He signed that deal in September 2016, when he was starting to flourish as a scorer. As a result, the agitating winger has been underpaid throughout the peak of his NHL career.

On June 12, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported the door isn't closed on the Panthers re-signing Marchand. However, they must also deal with fellow UFAs Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad, leading LeBrun to believe Marchand could end up hitting the open market.

LeBrun considers it likely that Marchand will be seeking a raise on his next deal, speculating he could get $8 million annually on a four-year contract. That will push him out of the Panthers' comfort zone, especially with Bennett likely to double his $4.45 million cap hit.

Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs

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Perched at No. 1 on our UFA Big Board, Mitch Marner has spent his entire nine-season NHL career with the Toronto Maple Leafs. The 28-year-old two-way right wing sits fourth all-time among Leafs scorers with 520 assists and fifth with 741 points.

Marner is among the Leafs' “Core Four” forwards (including Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares) who turned Toronto into a dominant regular-season team in the Eastern Conference. Of the nine 100-point seasons in franchise history, six of them were with Marner in the lineup.

However, the Leafs won only two playoff series during that time, with Marner bearing the brunt of the criticism from Leafs Nation. With $25.7 million in cap space and 17 active roster players signed for next season, the Leafs can afford to re-sign him, but he could prefer a market where the spotlight isn't so harsh.

Marner completed a six-year contract with an average annual value of $10.9 million. He could seek a long-term deal with an AAV around $14 million. On June 15, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported the Marner camp had not engaged in extension talks with Leafs management.

Playoff contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes and Los Angeles Kings have the cap space to pursue Marner. So do promising clubs with young talent like the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets and the Utah Mammoth. The Vegas Golden Knights could also try their luck if they can free up enough cap room.

Ivan Provorov, Columbus Blue Jackets

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In January, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported there had been mutual interest between Ivan Provorov and the Columbus Blue Jackets in a contract extension. However, there's been no indication since then that a deal will take place before his free-agent eligibility on July 1.

Provorov had a solid performance this season in Columbus. The 28-year-old was second in points among their defensemen (33) and second among all skaters in time on ice per game (23:21). The blueliner has completed a six-year contract with an average annual value of $6.8 million.

LeBrun speculated Provorov could seek a maximum eight-year contract with the Blue Jackets. With over $40.4 million in salary-cap space next season and 18 active roster players under contract, they could afford to accommodate that.

However, LeBrun didn't believe Blue Jackets management would be comfortable with such a lengthy deal, especially with promising defensemen like Denton Mateychuk on the roster and other prospects within their system.

Barring any last-ditch efforts by both sides leading up to July 1, Provorov is likely to hit the open market. The longest deal he can sign as a UFA is a seven-year contract, but he could find other clubs seeking experienced blue-line depth willing to give him the long-term security he seeks.

Stats via NHL.com and Hockey-Reference. Salary info via PuckPedia.