6 2024 1st-Round Picks Who Must Bounce Back in 2025 to Avoid Bust Label

Whether immediately or a year or two down the road, it's safe to say teams draft players in the first round with the idea of them becoming starters. But not all plans come to fruition, especially in the NFL, and several high draft picks quickly flame out and become a bust.

Granted, "bust" is an ambiguous term. So, it will be defined here as a player heading into their sophomore campaign who is in danger of getting buried on the depth chart and not becoming a full-time starter for their team. 

The second-year pros covered either weren't first-stringers a year ago or are in danger of losing their spot in 2025. Outlined will be their performance as a rookie and outlook heading into the fall.

Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

Coming out of Alabama, Dallas Turner was widely considered one of the best pass-rushers in the 2024 draft class.

However, his technique needed some fine-tuning, and his run defense was a work in progress, as outlined in his B/R scouting report:

"Use of hands when starting finesse moves is still a work in progress," the report noted. "Often misses with his initial chops or isn't strong enough to knock the offensive tackle's arms/hands down and get them off-balance.

"Can afford to add some size and strength to be more effective at holding ground against stronger offensive linemen."

With that in mind, it isn't too surprising that the No. 17 overall pick did not record a single start as a rookie. But it was a little shocking to see him only take 28 percent of the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive snaps, per Pro Football Reference, and he could receive a similar workload this fall.

Both starting edge defenders from last season return for the Vikings: Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard. 

Van Ginkel is coming off a career year with a personal-best 11.5 sacks to earn a Pro Bowl and second-team All-Pro bid. Meanwhile, Greenard has had back-to-back double-digit sack campaigns, logging 12 in 2024 while also making the Pro Bowl.

So, Turner has an uphill battle to crack the starting lineup and could have a tough time seeing the field again.

Darius Robinson, Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Darius Robinson's rookie season got off to a rough start as a calf injury at the end of training camp forced him to begin the campaign on injured reserve.

The 2024 No. 27 pick wasn't activated until about halfway through the Arizona Cardinals' schedule, resulting in him only playing in six games.

So, it makes sense why the Missouri product didn't record any starts a year ago. On top of that, he only participated in 183 defensive snaps, per Pro Football Reference, and had underwhelming production with just one sack and 10 total tackles.

While the lack of playing time in year one can be chalked up to the injury, the bigger problem moving forward is that Robinson faces even more competition to crack the starting lineup.

The Cardinals set out to revamp their defense this offseason, especially in the trenches. Among their moves was signing veteran defensive lineman Calais Campbell and using a first-round pick on one of the better interior defenders in the 2025 draft class, Walter Nolen III.

Campbell might be 38 years old, but he is still playing at a high level, finishing last season with the highest run defense grade from Pro Football Focus (85.9) at the position and recording five sacks. Meanwhile, Nolen was the second-ranked interior defender and 14th player overall on B/R's final big board during this past draft cycle.

That points toward Robinson being more of a backup again during his second season.

Tyler Guyton, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

It’s no secret Tyler Guyton didn't play well as a rookie. According to Pro Football Focus, he allowed six sacks in pass protection, earned a 51.3 run-blocking grade and was flagged 18 times to earn an ugly 49.4 overall mark from the site. 

That resulted in the Dallas Cowboys benching the 29th overall pick, and he was very candid during OTAs when talking about his performance as a rookie. 

"I didn't do too good last season, I want to do better, I want to be the guy that can be depended on," Guyton told reporters. "I'm not gonna make any excuses, I just didn’t play as good as I needed to last year. I'm coming with a different attitude this year to become a better player."

However, the Oklahoma product will head into training camp as the Cowboys' starting left tackle this season. The fact that the front office didn't add any clear competition for the job should give him some confidence heading into year two.

That being said, backup Asim Richards did make one start and got some playing time down the stretch of last season, while rookie Ajani Cornelius is lurking in the background if the second-year pro gets off to a slow start.

Considering Dallas is clinging to its Super Bowl window, the coaching staff might not have much patience, either. 

Terrion Arnold, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Rick Osentoski

Fair or not, the Detroit Lions selected Terrion Arnold with the hopes he could solve one of the most significant issues from the year before, as cornerback was arguably their biggest weakness heading into last year's draft. 

However, the 24th overall selection got picked on as a rookie, surrendering the 10th-most receptions (56) among cornerbacks and a 99.2 passer rating when targeted during the regular season, according to Pro Football Focus. 

"I learned a lot," Arnold told reporters after the Lions' playoff loss. "I feel like coming into this role, it was a lot. I got better as the season went on. Started to find myself. It's just one of those things where I’m really looking forward to next year."

Last year was certainly a learning experience for the Alabama product. Speaking to his growth down the stretch of the team's schedule, he is expected to be a starter heading into year two.

However, especially while playing for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations, he can't get too comfortable or afford to get off to a slow start in 2025.

Detroit signed D.J. Reed during free agency to serve as the defense's No. 1 cornerback and brought in Avonte Maddox as a veteran insurance policy.

While Maddox has primarily lined up at nickelback, 2024 free-agent addition Amik Robertson proved to be a versatile player last fall and could move to the boundary if Arnold isn't on top of his game. 

Jordan Morgan, Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Position flexibility was part of the reason why the Green Bay Packers used their first-round pick on Jordan Morgan last year.

While he exclusively lined up as a left tackle at Arizona, the former Wildcat profiled as an offensive lineman who could move inside and hold down the edge in a pinch.

"Overall, Morgan has the frame, build, play strength and physicality to make a smooth transition inside to guard, with the initial quickness and burst to be a high-quality run-blocker," B/R's offensive line scout Brandon Thorn wrote. 

"His questionable range and middling redirect skills will be difficult to overcome on an island against NFL edge-rushers, but he could make it work inside a run-first, play-action-based scheme that limits those exposures."

However, it feels like the 2024 25th overall selection is running the risk of falling into the "jack of all trades, master of none" category. 

He only played in six games with one start as a rookie, participating in just 186 offensive snaps, per Pro Football Reference. Granted, injuries played a factor in that, since he missed contests with a shoulder issue and ended the season on injured reserve.

However, Morgan still doesn't have a clear path to the starting lineup heading into year two.

The Packers signed guard Aaron Banks in free agency while using a second-round pick on tackle Anthony Walker this offseason. Additionally, Sean Rhyan took command of the starting right guard spot last year, and first-string tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom are back in the fold.

That pushes Morgan into the sixth offensive lineman role heading into training camp this summer.

Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Unlike a lot of the previously mentioned players, Xavier Legette had a decent rookie season and was a consistent starter a year ago.

The 2024 No. 32 overall pick made 13 starts and led the Carolina Panthers with 49 receptions, while finishing second in receiving yards (497) and touchdowns (four). 

However, he was plagued by eight drops, per Pro Football Focus, and the wideout admitted that's his biggest area of improvement moving forward.

"Me getting open, that wasn't a problem. It was just honing into really catching the ball on the drops," Legette told reporters on May 27. "Mainly just trying to catch it more with my hands and rather than letting it get into my body or crossing my eyes."

That's part of the reason Carolina was still searching for wide receiver help during the draft, adding another first-rounder at the position in Tetairoa McMillan last April. Additionally, Adam Thielen, the team’s No. 1 receiver over the last two years, and Jalen Coker return from last season.

McMillan and Thielen are expected to hold down two of the Panthers' starting spots out wide, leaving Legette to battle it out with fellow second-year pro Coker. 

While the former outproduced the latter last season, Coker put up similar numbers as Legette on a much smaller sample size. The undrafted free agent hauled in 32 catches for 478 yards and two touchdowns in just 11 games and four starts.

So, the South Carolina product might begin training camp as a starting wide receiver with the Panthers, but he better be careful this summer or he may lose his spot.