NBA Finals Bracket 2025 Odds, Box Score Predictions for Thunder vs. Pacers Game 3
After the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers split the first two games of the 2025 NBA Finals, the series shifts over to the Circle City for Wednesday night's Game 3.
It feels like this might determine whether we still have a competitive series or not.
Because while the clubs traded wins in Oklahoma City, the Thunder controlled both of those contests. Oklahoma City had a 15-point, fourth-quarter advantage in Game 1 before Indiana stormed back and escaped on the latest display of late-game magic from Tyrese Haliburton. In Game 2, the Thunder led by as many as 23 points and cruised to a comfortable 16-point triumph.
Can Indiana feed off the energy of its home fans and dictate the terms of engagement? Or is Oklahoma City simply too deep and too disruptive on defense to be bothered by anyone?
Game 3 Odds
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Spread: Oklahoma City (-5)
Over/Under: 228.5
Money Line: Oklahoma City (-225; bet $225 to win $100); Indiana (+188; bet $100 to win $188)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Can't Be Stopped
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By the looks of it, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on a mission to validate his regular-season MVP by running for the totally-made-up-but-maybe-should-be-real postseason MVP.
All playoff defenses have essentially been rendered powerless against him. In 18 playoff games, he's had 25-plus points 15 different times and 30 or more in 13 of them.
Oddsmakers are fully aware of this run and have set his Game 3 scoring prop at a healthy 33.5 points. The over still seems worth it. He's had at least 34 points in four consecutive contests, and his aggressiveness alone might keep him at that level. During this four-game stretch, he has averaged 26.5 field-goal attempts and another 9.5 attempts at the free-throw line.
The Pacers might have some plucky perimeter stoppers like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, but they don't have a Gilgeous-Alexander stopper. Based on everything we've seen this season, actually, no one does.
Bank on Tyrese Haliburton's Table-Setting
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Even though Tyrese Haliburton has his team holding a 1-1 tie in the NBA Finals, his superstar status remains a point of debate around the Association. What isn't debatable, though, is his standing as one of the game's premier playmakers.
He averaged 9.2 assists this season, and that was actually his lowest average since arriving in Indiana at the 2022 deadline. In true floor-general fashion, he dished out those dimes while averaging just 1.6 giveaways per game.
His passing hasn't been nearly as productive in this series (12 assists against eight turnovers), so some will be tempted to take the under on his 7.5 assists. Betting on his skills and smarts still seems like the superior play, especially since role players—of which, the Pacers have many—tend to perk up in front of their home fans.
The Thunder have all sorts of stingy stoppers to throw his direction, but the Pacers also have two games of film to figure out how he can work around that. They aren't winning this game (let alone this series) if he isn't at the top of his form, as both a scorer and distributor. Look for Indiana to lean on his passing whenever and wherever possible.
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