Matthew Schaefer 2025 NHL Draft Scouting Report

Vitals

Position: Left Defense

Age on Draft Day: 17.81

Height, Weight: 6'2", 186 lbs

2024-25 Stats (OHL): 17 GP, 7 G, 15 A

Scouting Report

Skating is a good place to start when analyzing any prospect. It's a great place to start with Schaefer because it's the bedrock for what makes him a top prospect.

Schaefer is the total package as a skater. He has a phenomenal top gear and will push the pace with the puck through open ice. He loves to activate on the rush, and he can afford to, as his straight-line speed affords him the ability to quickly rotate back to the points or catch up on the backcheck.

The real draw to Schaefer, however, is his four-way mobility. Very few defensemen his age are as balanced on their feet as he is. Especially given how quickly he moves. It means that Schaefer is not only able to move quickly but that he maintains the leverage to make plays. He easily maneuvers around bodies when carrying the puck up the ice. He is excellent at pinching in the offensive zone to keep plays alive.

On the defensive side, he's like an NFL safety, jumping into territory in a flash to cut off routes through open ice. It's Schaefer's ability to accelerate quickly and skate with power without sacrificing balance that, above all, makes him a top prospect.

The left defenseman has a high hockey IQ and can anticipate how lanes will develop or evade pressure when closed down at the points. He is an above-average distributor in the offensive zone and is a decent enough shooter. He doesn't have the elite in-zone offensive games of a Quinn Hughes or Adam Fox but he is skilled enough to eventually become one of the better offensive defensemen in the NHL and play on the first power play unit for many teams.

Schaefer is a valuable offensive contributor off the rush. With his speed, he is able to jump into plays and the ability to cover ground on the backcheck means he is able to take risks. As this SportContract chart shows, more of Schaefer's OHL goals last season came from low in the zone than from the left point

Schaefer is a talented defensive player with room to grow. As mentioned earlier, he is already very good as a neutral zone stopper, using speed and anticipation to kill plays. With his skating and decent enough size, he has the potential to be a superb one-on-one defender. He already shows signs of that, but he occasionally misreads a play or is overeager against a rusher. These types of bad judgments can and should diminish with practice and coaching. With his ability to surf, the physicality to handle most players, and the appetite to make big defensive plays, Schaefer has the potential to be one of the NHL's premier defensive defensemen.

Draft Outlook

Schaefer played just 17 OHL games this season; a broken collarbone just two games into the World Junior Championships ended his season prematurely. That he remains the odds-on favorite to go to the Islanders first overall hints at a weak draft class but also indicates how much confidence he has inspired in spite of a limited sample size.

There are no weaknesses to his game, which is remarkable for any junior-age defenseman, let alone one as young as Schaefer. Had he been born just 11 days later, the Canadian's draft eligibility would have been pushed to 2026. His game oozes maturity, yet he simultaneously has immense untapped potential.

It's not a foregone conclusion that the Islanders will select Schaefer first overall, but for my money, he is the best player on the board. Certainly, he will fall no farther than San Jose at the second spot.

There is a chance Schaefer could play in the NHL next season. If not, 2026-27 will surely mark his NHL debut. If all goes as planned, and there is a lot of reason to believe it will, Schaefer will be an every-situation No. 1 defenseman. Maybe not an annual Norris contender, but a tier below and with the potential to enter the conversation in his best year.

Loose Stylistic Comparables

Miro Heiskanen

Devon Toews

Jake Sanderson