Fantasy Football's Biggest Sleepers, Busts and Breakouts for Early Summer Drafts

Summertime is here. Kids are out of school, grills are alit and s'mores are being assembled.

Summer also brings with it the ramping up of fantasy football draft season. For many, draft day may still be a ways off, but savvy managers have already started researching which players to target and who to avoid.

However, drafts in the annual Scott Fish Bowl are less than a month away, many best-ball enthusiasts are already drafting away and some season-long managers just can't wait for August to arrive.

It’s a time of hope and optimism, but that can quickly fade with a bad draft. Fantasy managers need to know who to pursue, who to steer clear of and who will have the sort of breakout season that wins championships.

Sleepers, busts and breakouts. Oh my!

Sleeper: Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

ADP: RB35

Two years ago, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. appeared to be a fantasy star in the making. In his second professional season, he topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second consecutive season, flirted with 1,500 total yards and finished third in PPR points among running backs.

However, the 2024 campaign was a hot mess for the Clemson product. He battled injuries much of the season, averaged 3.7 yards per carry playing behind an atrocious offensive line and finished 35th among running backs in PPR points.

Now, with trade rumors swirling and fourth-rounder Bhayshul Tuten joining the team, Etienne has become essentially a fantasy afterthought. But Joe Beldner of the Fantasy Footballers believes his fall from grace may be an opportunity for value:

"While it is understandable to have concerns after two straight seasons of declining efficiency, there is increasing evidence that Etienne's struggles in 2024 were more due to health issues and team dysfunction than a genuine decline in his talent or potential. If he stays healthy, holds onto his role and recaptures his explosiveness, he is fully capable of a strong rebound, even if he does not quite reach RB1 territory. Fortunately, the risk will likely already be factored into his draft cost, making him an intriguing value pick."

Tank Bigsby is a between-the-tackles bruiser unlikely to be a factor in the passing game. Tuten, who had fumbling issues at Virginia Tech, put the ball on the ground on his first rep of OTAs.

Etienne, 26, has been cast aside prematurely. And new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen coaxed top-20 PPR seasons from a pair of running backs in Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in Tampa a year ago.

Bust: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

ADP: QB6

This will be viewed as blasphemous by some. After all, Patrick Mahomes is arguably the greatest quarterback of his generation. It's not a stretch to already call the 29-year-old an all-time great.

However, there's a difference between NFL great and fantasy football great—and where the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is concerned, that gulf has widened in recent years.

Last season, Mahomes threw for 3,928 passing yards and 26 touchdowns—numbers that slotted him 11th among QBs in fantasy points. It marked the second straight season he finished 10th or worse in fantasy.

That hasn't stopped fantasy drafters from taking Mahomes in the fifth round on average—and in the opinion of Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated, that's far too early:

"That is a price far too high to pay for a quarterback (even Mahomes), who has seen such a drastic decline in statistical success over the last two years. Quarterback is a deep position too, so there's no reason to pick anyone outside of the top five (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow) in the first five rounds of drafts. If you're able to land Mahomes past Round 7 as a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback, be my guest. But his days as an elite fantasy option are over and blindly drafting him in the top 60 based only on name value is a mistake."

Drafting any fantasy player at his statistical ceiling is a bad idea. And while it can be argued a healthy receiving corps that includes Rashee Rice could give Mahomes a fantasy boost, the Chiefs appear perfectly content to play an offense that is much more conservative than earlier in the 29-year-old's career.

Don’t fall for the name trap and overpay for a low-end fantasy QB1.

Breakout: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Duane Burleson

ADP: WR39

Fantasy managers have become accustomed to wide receivers exploding into fantasy prominence as rookies.

Last year, Malik Nabers of the New York Giants was sixth in PPR points among receivers, while Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams was fourth in 2023.

Rome Odunze of the Chicago Bears had a much quieter inaugural season in 2024, with 54 catches, 734 receiving yards, three scores and a WR48 fantasy finish.

The Bears have a new head coach in 2025 in Ben Johnson, and he told reporters he has been impressed with what he has seen from the Washington product since arriving in the Windy City:

"I'm extremely impressed. To be a second-year guy, you would expect a little bit more inconsistency, and yet the way he approaches the meeting room, the walkthroughs, the on the field, the drill work. He's much like a seasoned pro, some of the best I have been around. He's still learning, and I know there's a lot of information that's getting thrown his way, [wide receivers coach Antwaan] Randle El and [offensive assistant Robbie] Picazo are doing a great job with him, and I think we're going to see a lot of growth from him not just in the springtime, but once we get to camp."

The Bears overhauled the offensive line in front of second-year pro Caleb Williams, while Johnson is widely regarded as one of the NFL's best offensive minds.

And with Keenan Allen gone, Odunze should see a spike in targets this season, even with the arrival of rookie tight end Colston Loveland and first-year wideout Luther Burden III.

If the new-look Bears offense is anywhere near as improved as many expect, Odunze should be one of the main beneficiaries.

Sleeper: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/David Becker

ADP: WR44

The Las Vegas Raiders were a four-win mess of a football team last year.

As Kevin Patra noted for NFL.com, though, Brock Bowers' rookie breakout wasn't the only bright spot in Sin City last year. Veteran receiver Jakobi Meyers quietly had the best season of his career.

“While all the attention was rightfully on Brock Bowers' record-setting season, Meyers quietly went about his business, generating his first career 1,000-yard campaign. The steady wideout put up 1,027 receiving yards and four TDs on 87 catches in an offense that had one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. With Davante Adams essentially a non-factor even before the midseason trade, Meyers was the go-to wideout -- the next WR was Tre Tucker with 539 yards. Meyers' ability to play wide or in the slot was crucial to the Raiders having any semblance of a passing attack. He was also the most sure-handed wideout in the NFL, ending the season as the only qualifying wideout (min. 85 targets) to post zero drops, per Pro Football Focus. His 66.7 contested catch percent ranked fourth in the league."

The Raiders overhauled the offense in the offseason, adding a new quarterback in Geno Smith and a new head coach and offensive coordinator in Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, respectively.

They also drafted a wideout on Day 2 in Jack Bech, but Meyers should open the season as the No. 1 WR in Las Vegas.

That may mean taking a back seat to Bowers in target share, and repeating last year's WR20 finish could be a tall ask.

But given Meyers' modest asking price, a finish anywhere in fantasy WR3 territory would still make the 28-year-old a solid value in fantasy drafts.

Bust: Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

ADP: RB6

This fantasy analyst has a confession: Many of the top running backs in fantasy this year make me nervous.

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles is squarely in the crosshairs of the "Curse of 370" after a massive workload in 2024, while Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is coming off another major injury.

And as Heath Cummings pointed out for CBS Sports, Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens is ancient by NFL running back standards:

“Henry is the active leader in rush attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. He's also 31 years old. His early consensus ranking is 8th overall. I cannot draft a 31-year-old running back in Round 1 of a Fantasy Football draft. I also do not think you should. Of course, I didn't think you should last year either, and Henry finished RB4 and justified the cost. The problem is that is the best-case scenario, maybe he just barely lives up to his ADP. The downside is far more pronounced.”

In PPR scoring systems, Henry actually finished third in points, and his ADP has dipped slightly to the back of Round 1. He also has a habit of making doubters look foolish, including nearly 2,000 rushing yards, a career-high 5.9 yards per carry and 18 total touchdowns in 2024.

The Ravens offense is essentially a perfect scheme for Henry. And in nine years, he has played at least 15 games eight times.

But the list of big seasons from 31-year-old backs is a lot shorter than the list of disappointing ones. Henry has carried the ball a whopping 2,335 times in the NFL, and the only other time he topped 1,900 rushing yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns he missed over half the following year with a foot injury.

Henry's a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but the bust risk in 2025 is very real.

Breakout: Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

ADP: TE13

Tucker Kraft's raw stats last year didn't blow anyone away. He was 18th among tight ends with 70 targets and 20th with 50 catches, although seven touchdown grabs helped propel the third-year pro into the back end of the top 10 in PPR points.

The Packers have no shortage of young wide receiver talent, including rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden. But as the 2024 season was winding down, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters that one of the team's priorities this year was getting Kraft more involved in the offense.

"I think that's on us to find him and feature him," he said. "When he gets the ball in his hands, you feel him. If there's an area we have to do a better job on, it's featuring the tight end."

Should that be the case this year, a breakout could be in the offing because Kraft's per-catch numbers a year ago were impressive, per Dave Richard of CBS Sports:

"Kraft was among the Packers' most efficient pass-catchers last season, finishing first, second, or third among meaningful Packers WRs and TEs in catch rate (71.4%), yards per catch (14.1), yards per target (10.1), yards after catch per reception (9.1), explosive catch rate (22.9%) and tackle avoid rate (30%). His biggest problem was not getting enough targets, something LaFleur lamented as soon as the 2024 season ended. That's an easy fix for the Packers heading into 2025."

There isn't a position in fantasy where identifying a potential breakout candidate could bring a higher return than at tight end, as the waters muddy quickly beyond the top few options.

If Kraft takes that next step in 2025, he could be a league-winner.

Sleeper: Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Bart Young

ADP: RB37

There was a time when it appeared running back Javonte Williams would be well past his breakout season.

However, a promising rookie year with the Denver Broncos gave way to a knee injury in 2022, and the 25-year-old has never really been the same since.

Now, after four seasons in Denver, Williams finds himself playing on a one-year "prove it" deal with the Dallas Cowboys.

And the North Carolina product told reporters he finally feels completely healthy and intends to be a big part of a Cowboys offense intent on running the ball well in 2025:

"I feel completely like myself. I probably can get more flexible and things like that, but as far as healing up, that I feel like is done. From what I've seen, I feel like they're trying to run the ball a lot. Then, we've got a lot of playmakers on the outside and a great o-line, a great quarterback, so they're going to do their thing too, but I feel like getting the run game of the ground is something that they've been preaching on."

Williams isn't the only new face in the Dallas backfield. The team also signed veteran Miles Sanders and drafted rookie Jaydon Blue on Day 3 in April.

However, a healthy Williams is the favorite in most eyes to emerge as the lead back in Dallas.

Last year, Rico Dowdle turned that same role into over 1,300 total yards and top-25 fantasy numbers in PPR points. If Williams can post similar numbers in 2025, he could be a steal for fantasy managers, especially those who pursue "Zero RB" builds and wait at the position.

Bust: DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Eric Thayer

ADP: WR25

On some level, DK Metcalf's 2025 situation would appear the opposite of what you would expect from a potential fantasy bust.

After joining the Pittsburgh Steelers in an offseason trade, the 27-year-old is far and away their No. 1 receiver. It's not official yet, but just about everyone expects Aaron Rodgers to eventually sign with the Steelers.

So, what's the problem? What's holding Metcalf back from top-20 numbers? Maybe even top-10?

Well, there are a couple of things.

For starters, it has been a while since we have seen a top-20 campaign from the two-time Pro Bowler. Last year, he finished outside the top 30 in both PPR points and points per game; the year before, he was 21st.

However, the larger issue is the fantasy-value-sucker that is Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, as noted by Kevin Tompkins of Fantasy Pros:

"Metcalf walks through the Pittsburgh saloon doors and is greeted by Arthur Smith and the Steelers' offense, where the passing game, compared to the rest of the league, is non-existent. The Steelers passed the ball at the fifth-lowest rate (54%) last season, and when they did pass, the quarterbacks threw to the wide receivers at the fourth-lowest distribution rate (46%). Metcalf couldn't hit a ceiling projection with Russell Wilson, Geno Smith and league-average team pass attempts; why would we think that could happen in Pittsburgh? Smith's offenses spanning back to his time in Tennessee have finished no better than 20th in total passing attempts."

In six seasons running an NFL offense, Smith's No. 1 pass-catcher has cracked the top-20 wide receivers once: A.J. Brown with the Titans in 2020.

Breakout: Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper

ADP: QB18

Among second-year quarterbacks, Washington’s Jayden Daniels has gotten all the run this offseason. And rightly so. He was a top-five fantasy option as a rookie and is being drafted as an elite fantasy asset.

New England’s Drake Maye didn't have that kind of statistical success. But in 13 games (12 starts), he posted 17 or more fantasy points six times, per Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated.

After taking over the reins in New England, Maye was on pace to rush for nearly 700 yards, as well; a number that would have placed him third at the position.

Mind you, that was with one of the worst offensive lines in the league and a collection of offensive weaponry that was like bringing a spork to a swordfight.

As Marc Ross noted at NFL.com, though, there isn't a team in the NFL that has experienced a more thorough overhaul in the offseason than the Pats:

"The team wasted no time adding key veteran pieces around Maye this offseason, including WRs Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, OT Morgan Moses, OG Wes Schweitzer and C Garrett Bradbury. New England also selected four offensive players in the first 100 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft -- including blindside protector Will Campbell and running back TreVeyon Henderson -- which helped the Patriots put together one of the league's best draft hauls. The offense appears to be headed in the right direction with Maye likely to take a big step forward in Year 2."

Add in the return of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and all the ingredients are there for Maye to take a major step forward in 2025.

And with his ability to pick up yardage with his legs, fantasy managers able to land Maye as a mid-range QB2 could be looking at quite the return on investment.

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Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather