Overvalued or Undervalued? Gauging Fantasy Football Stock for 10 Divisive Players

It’s Memorial Day weekend. Across America, grills are lighting. Swimming pools are opening. Schools are closing. It’s the unofficial start of summer.

That means different things for different people. But for fantasy football fanatics, summer means that draft season is coming. It’s not here yet—although mega-leagues like the Scott Fish Bowl will be firing up before you know it. But if you want to have success in fantasy this year (and don’t we all?) then it’s time to start researching (and evaluating) players.

As fantasy managers (and pundits like this dude) do that, there will be some agreement. But there will also be divergences of opinion—quite a few of them. And it’s in those disagreements where values can often be found.

If 95 percent of the family community believes a player will have a big year, it’s a good bet he will, even if there are instances where everyone whiffs. But as dissent grows, it’s wise to examine that dissention. To examine if the consensus outlook for a player is too high or too low.

Sometimes, it’s those dissenting voices that are speaking the truth.

Especially if that voice belongs to an incredibly intelligent, knowledgeable and clever analyst who hasn’t been wrong in at least an hour and a half.

Approximately.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Peter Aiken

Josh Allen is perennially among the first quarterbacks drafted in fantasy leagues. According to early ADP info at Fantasy Pros, Allen is being taken late in Round 2 as the 21st overall pick.

According to Kendall Valenzuela of Fantasy Life, there’s good reason for that.

“There are three quarterbacks that are in a tier of their own, and Josh Allen sits atop that list, Valenzuela said. “In each of the last five seasons, Allen has finished as a top-three quarterback in fantasy points per game. We saw a different Allen last season, where big-time mistakes and turnovers almost weren't an option for him anymore—he had a career-low five interceptions in 2024. Allen finished with 3,731 passing yards and 28 touchdowns with the Bills' wide receivers and tight ends ranking just 27th in average Open Score. Plus, we always want a dual-threat quarterback, and that's exactly what Allen is—he had 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2024.”

OVERVALUED

The problem with taking Allen at the back of Round 2 isn’t even really about Allen. Taking any quarterback that early can backfire as often as not. In leagues that only start one quarterback, drafting Allen creates a “hole” at another position—and the edge Allen affords over quarterbacks taken rounds later isn’t worth the deficiency it creates at wide receiver or running back.

Then there are the issues with Allen himself. Thanks in part to a less-than-imposing cadre of pass-catchers, Allen threw for just 3,731 yards a season ago—his fewest since 2019. That makes the reigning MVP that much more reliant on rushing touchdowns for fantasy production. And even with 12 scores on the ground a year ago, Allen was just 4th in fantasy points overall among quarterbacks.

As great as Allen is, it’s wiser to wait at the position.

Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

For Justin Fields, the 2025 season is a second chance—or a third one. Now on his third team in as many seasons, Fields enters the summer as the unquestioned starter for the New York Jets.

Fields has had a bumpy career in the NFL to date, including being benched by the Pittsburgh Steelers after six games a year ago. But after practicing with Fields a few times, Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams told reporters he’s glad Fields is on his side this season.

"He's a guy who can run extremely fast and make bombs down the field," Williams said. "The different great things that he brings to the aspect of the game will come down to dual-threat quarterback. I feel like he's one of the top five dual-threat quarterbacks or one of the top 10 dual-threat quarterbacks in the league right now. He's probably one of the fastest people. I chased him a few times today and I was like, 'yeah he's fast.' So, I think that definitely brings an excitement and just his attitude about wanting to win and wanting to show the world the things he can do, and we all know he can do."

UNDERVALUED

It’s that ability to gain yardage with his legs that should make Fields’ early ADP of QB15 appealing to fantasy managers. In 2022 with the Chicago Bears, Fields became the third quarterback to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season and finished the year sixth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. For his career, Fields has averaged 50.2 rushing yards per game—more than the aforementioned Josh Allen.

It's also not like Fields hasn’t been productive since that 2022 season. Over his six starts for the Steelers a year ago, Fields averaged about 18.9 fantasy points per game—seventh at the position over that stretch.

There aren’t many better values under center right now.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Dave Shopland/AP Images for the NFL

It’s not difficult to see why Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has an ADP of the third overall pick in early fantasy drafts this summer. Last year, Barkley became the ninth NFL back to top 2,000 rushing yards in a season. His 22.0 PPR points per game paced all running backs. He plays behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines in Philadelphia.

However, as Pat Fitzmaurice wrote for Fantasy Pros, Barkley’s age and 2024 workload should give fantasy managers pause in 2025.

“It’s more than a little concerning that Saquon touched the ball 482 times last season if you include the Eagles’ four playoff games,” he said. “That’s a jaw-dropping workload. Saquon’s previous single-season high in touches was 352. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders once wrote about the “Curse of 370″ — a fate that doomed nearly all of the RBs who had accumulated 370 or more carries to substantial regression the following season. Saquon is a 28-year-old back who tore his ACL in 2020 and has had multiple ankle injuries. Yes, of course, Saquon could smash again. But it’s reasonable to fear that the mileage he piled up in 2024 could catch up with him in 2025.”

OVERVALUED

Even if you discount Philly’s playoff games, Barkley still eclipsed 370 touches in the regular season, and while that version of the “Curse of 370” isn’t quite as savage as the 370 carries iteration, backs who see that workload regress the following season far more often than not.

There’s also the history of what happens the year after a 2,000-yard campaign on the ground—and brother, it ain’t good. It’s admittedly a small sample size, but every 2,000-yard back took a step backward the following season, and the average drop-off is calamitous—over 1,000 yards.

Barkley has to essentially back up last year’s explosion to justify his ADP. And the odds of that happening aren’t good at all.

D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

D’Andre Swift of the Chicago Bears appears to be the back that fantasy managers love to hate. Last year with the Bears, Swift averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and broke just seven tackles—38th in the NFL.

However, despite those less-than-impressive per-touch numbers, Ted Chymz of Fantasy Pros believes that the “distaste” surrounding the 26-year-old Swift (whose ADP rests outside the top-25 running backs) has simply gone too far.

“Look, I don’t like D’Andre Swift any more than the next guy,” he said. “One of the very first articles I wrote was calling out his very underwhelming rushing efficiency metrics. But Swift is still a 26-year-old running back with a three-down skill set and a history of solid fantasy production. Swift is also the presumptive lead back in a Chicago offense that should be very exciting with Ben Johnson in town. He is simply too low.”

UNDERVALUED

This is a matter of fantasy managers wanting so badly to hit a home run that they continually eschew the opportunity to take the ball the other way and rope a double down the line.

My apologies for the baseball metaphor. I feel dirty.

Is Swift an elite talent? No. But the Bears made a major effort to rebuild the offensive line this offseason. Ben Johnson’s offense turned Jahmyr Gibbs into fantasy football’s highest-scoring running back a year ago. And the Bears didn’t add any significant pieces to the backfield this offseason—Swift should lead the team in backfield touches by a fair margin.

Last year, on a Bears offense that was a hot mess, Swift was 19th in PPR points among running backs. That could be closer to his floor in 2025 than his ceiling.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/David Becker

Among this year’s rookie class, there’s no question who the fantasy hype king is—with all due respect to Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Travis Hunter, it’s Ashton Jeanty’s world—every other first-year player is just living in it.

After a historic 2024 season at Boise State, Jeanty was the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft and isn’t going considerably later in fantasy leagues—Jeanty’s early ADP is eighth overall and fourth among running backs.

For his part, Raiders star edge-rusher Maxx Crosby has been impressed with what he’s seen from Jeanty in workouts.

“Ashton is a great kid,” Crosby told reporters. “I’ve been able to know him before he got drafted here. But he’s a great kid, humble kid, I think—just the fact that a kid like him could have went anywhere in the country and decided to stay at Boise State and go out there and have the best year at running back, I think, arguably, he ever had. But just shows the testament to the type of person he is. So, it’s been awesome. It’s only been a couple weeks with him, but I love the kid. He’s a hell of a worker, hell of a player, and excited to be teammates with him.”

OVERVALUED

Maybe Jeanty will be the can’t-miss superstar so many are convinced he will be. But the rookie is being drafted as though that’s a certainty—and that’s dangerous.

For starters, while Jeanty piled up a jaw-dropping 2,601 rushing yards last year, he also amassed almost 400 total touches. That’s a lot of wear-and-tear, even in the Mountain West. He’s also about to experience a massive jump in the quality of competition.

Add in a bottom-10 offensive line according to Ben Rolfe of PFSN, and asking for top-five fantasy numbers from Jeanty right off the jump is a lofty expectation—one Jeanty could be hard-pressed to meet.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Last year, it was Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. who was the rookie hype king—Harrison came off the board as a top-10 wideout in many drafts before ever catching an NFL pass.

Harrison’s 62 receptions for 885 yards and eight scores in 2025 weren’t a terrible first season. But those numbers were only good enough for a WR30 finish in PPR points—a finish that left a bad taste in more than a few managers’ mouths.

As Dalton Del Don wrote for Yahoo Sports, Harrison’s “down” rookie year went well past the former Ohio State star himself.

“Harrison ranked sixth in air yards but just 37th in target share (22.2%),” he wrote. “He ranked 58th in yards per route run among wideouts, although that came while ranking 64th in catchable target rate. Despite being among the leaders in end-zone targets, Harrison was still just the WR32 in expected fantasy points per game. (Kyler) Murray delivered just a 51% catchable ball rate on throws 20+ air yards without pressure, which ranked 24th out of 33 qualified QBs (although the good news is Murray targeted Harrison on a whopping 45.9% of those attempts).”

UNDERVALUED

There are a number of reasons to expect that Harrison could rebound in 2025. He added muscle in the offseason, and Harrison told reporters that he and Murray have been working out together in an effort to improve their chemistry.

“I feel like we should be able to go out there with our eyes closed and complete 100% of our passes,” Harrison said. “That’s the goal you want to get to with timing."

Harrison didn’t forget how to play football—we’re talking about a player who many considered the No. 1 prospect overall in last year’s class. Given the lack of talent around Harrison at wide receiver in the desert, he should also see a robust target share this year.

There’s WR1 upside here—upside available well into WR2 territory.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Maria Lysaker

Not that long ago, Tyreek Hill was arguably the NFL’s best receiver—just two years ago, he led the league in receiving yards and touchdowns and averaged over 112 yards per game. But after a down year and a tumultuous offseason, Hill enters a pivotal season in 2025.

For his part, new Dolphins wide receivers coach Robert Prince told reporters that he has had no issues with the 31-year-old so far this offseason.

“Tyreek’s been great,” Prince said. “If I text him, he texts me back. If I call him, he calls me back. He says I’m going to be here, he’s been here. And it’s been great. I’ve had nothing but positive experiences with Tyreek, and he’s a great leader in the room.”

Many fantasy managers are apparently buying the notion of a rebound season from Hill in 2025—his ADP has already crept into the top-15 at the position, and as more positive reports come in that could continue to climb.

OVERVALUED

However, as Kevin Tompkins pointed out at Fantasy Pros, a look at some of Hill’s advanced metrics of late don’t inspire the warm and fuzzies.

“When looking at some of Hill’s stats and peripheral metrics over the past few seasons, you can see a steep drop-off in Hill’s targets per game and yards per target, a precipitous decline in yards after the catch (YAC), as well as some of his target-earning metrics like targets per route run (TPRR) and his first season under 2.00 yards per route run,” he said. “Collectively, those are all hard to ignore for a wide receiver over the age of 30.”

Hill is an aging receiver coming off one of the worst seasons of his career with legitimate questions at quarterback. Opposing defenses took the vertical passing game away from the Dolphins last year.

If that happens again in 2025, Hill won’t sniff the top-15—and it could be just a matter of time before the grousing begins again.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Marvin Harrison isn’t the only former Buckeyes wide receiver that fantasy managers appear to have soured on this summer. As recently as last year, Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints was being drafted as a top-12 wide receiver. But after two more concussions cost Olave over half the 2024 season, the fourth-year pro is barely being drafted inside WR3 territory on average.

While speaking to the media, Saints head coach Kellen Moore said that he has lofty expectations for Olave this year.

"Chris is a really smooth player," Moore said. "You see it out there. Just an excellent, big-time receiver in this league. I think we all know that. Just getting to see him and his ability to move around and play a number of positions and lineup in a number of ways will be an advantage for us. Obviously, Chris has gone through the injuries over the recent past. He's navigated that very well. He's playing excellent football right now. So, he'll be fine."

UNDERVALUED

The concerns with Olave this season are legitimate. Those concussions last year were the third and fourth documented ones of his career—another one could sideline the 24-year-old for good. There’s also the unsettled quarterback situation in New Orleans, with second-round rookie Tyler Shough the most likely Week 1 starter.

But those concerns are already baked into Olave’s asking price. So long as Olave can stay healthy, he should dominate target share for a Saints passing game that is both short on reliable targets and who should be playing from behind, well, a lot.

Olave has caught at least 70 passes and topped 1,000 receiving yards in two of three professional seasons. If he can just stay on the field in 2025, this could easily be the best statistical season of his career.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

For years, Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs was the unquestioned gold standard at tight end. A legitimate first-round pick. King of the proverbial mountain.

But Father Time is undefeated—and last year age appeared to catch up to the 35-year-old. Kelce’s 823 yards and three touchdowns were the lowest numbers Kelce has posted in those categories since his rookie year, and Kelce finished fifth in PPR points among tight ends. In standard-scoring formats, he barely cracked the top-10.

As Heath Cummings wrote at CBS Sports, it’s difficult to imagine things getting markedly better in his age-36 season.

“Kelce averaged 12.2 FPPG last year, an extreme drop off from the year before, but still earned 133 targets,” he said. “His biggest problem was that his efficiency crashed and he only scored three touchdowns. Because he will be 36 this season, I will not project any sort of regression back to his 2023 efficiency, as a rule I don't project bounce back seasons from older players who show decline, but it would be surprising if his touchdown rate stays that low. Volume, as a rule, is more predictable than touchdowns, and Kelce's volume last year was still outstanding. He projects for 12.8 FPPG next year, not quite a bounce back, and still well below his career marks.”

OVERVALUED

Kelce’s current ADP is TE6. Last year, the No. 6 tight end in PPR points per game was Cleveland’s David Njoku, who averaged 13.1 points per contest. Essentially that means that Kelce is being drafted significantly closer to his fantasy ceiling than his floor.

Some of that is likely subconscious deference to an all-time great who dominated the tight end spot for years. But fantasy managers need to shake off the adulation and see Kelce for what he likely is—an aging player being drafted more for who he once was than who he is in 2025.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Mention the name Kyle Pitts to fantasy managers, and you’re apt to get the old stink-eye. There’s good reason for that—since topping 1,000 yards as a rookie, Pitts’ production has been less than ideal—less than 55 catches and under 700 receiving yards each of the past two years.

However, per Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk, Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said that he expects a step forward from Pitts in his second year in Atlanta’s offense.

“I think for Kyle, it’s just how can he take that next step — next level of details, next level of consistency, all those things that we’ve talked about with him and have talked about in the past,” Robinson said. “He’s in Year 2 of the system, and I think the thing we’ve always talked about with Kyle is just play fast. No matter what, play fast, take the thinking out involved with it. That’s more of what we’re looking for from Kyle is just that next level of that understanding of the offense.”

UNDERVALUED

For Nic Bodiford of Pro Football Focus, it’s more than just a matter of Pitts improving as a player. It’s also a matter of better quarterback play in Atlanta this year—and hopefully more targets for Pitts after play-action.

“Pitts is a remarkable talent, as evidenced by his 82.4 PFF receiving grade earned from 2021-to-2023, which ranks sixth among 32 NFL tight ends with at least 110 targets during that span,” he said. “While a decline in play is possible, offensive environmental factors are ever present in his most recent season-long sample. Fantasy managers should draft Pitts as a TE1 bounce-back candidate in 2025.”

Listen, this writer is well aware how, um, unpalatable the idea of trusting Pitts (again) is. But Pitts’ ADP has fallen outside the top-15 at his position—behind two rookies. Pitts was the earliest-drafted tight end in NFL history for a reason. If you have even a shred of belief in his talent, his asking price right now is dirt-cheap.

---

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather