Cooking Up Paul Skenes Blockbuster Trade Packages amid Pirates Struggles
Though he's barely a year removed from making his MLB debut, it's a sign of the times that Paul Skenes is already the subject of trade chatter.
More accurately, it's a sign of how doomed the Pittsburgh Pirates look right now.
Though Skenes himself has been brilliant—more on that in just a bit—the Bucs are 16-33 and in last place in the National League Central. Barring a historic comeback, they're going to go 0-for-2 in trying to make the playoffs with Skenes. So it goes, as they last made the playoffs in 2016 and have gone only three times since 1992.
The Pirates could save some face by signing Skenes to a contract extension, but that's a "yeah, right" notion. This is the most frugal franchise in MLB, and ESPN's Jeff Passan has the 22-year-old down as a candidate for a $400 million pact.
"The truth is, there are teams that already are going to ask about Paul Skenes at the trade deadline this year," Passan said on The Pat McAfee Show last week. "And I don't anticipate that he's going to be moved, but there's a real argument to be made that the best thing for the Pittsburgh Pirates would be to move Paul Skenes when he has the most value."
As unlikely as the Pirates trading Skenes this summer may be, it's fair game to speculate on which teams could conceivably get in on him. But before we do that, we must first assess the righty's trade value.
Spoiler alert: It's huge.
What Is Paul Skenes' Trade Value?
1 of 9
If your first impulse is to think that Skenes is the single most valuable trade chip in MLB, you may not be wrong.
His 2.12 ERA is the lowest for a pitcher through his first 33 starts since ERA became official in 1912. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year will only turn 23 on May 29. He won't be arbitration-eligible until 2027, with free agency not coming until after 2029.
Further, have you heard about the state of starting pitching in MLB these days? It's not great, which basically confers unto Skenes a sort of "Last Unicorn" status.
Baseball Trade Values estimates Skenes' surplus value at $94.8 million. That is nearly twice as much as Garrett Crochet had when the Chicago White Sox traded him for four top prospects, including two in MLB Pipeline's top 100.
If the Pirates are going to move Skenes, it figures to be for nothing less than an offer they can't refuse. If anything, the fact that there's no rush for them to deal him should allow them to push their asking price even higher.
The only way trading Skenes would make sense is if the Bucs effectively turned one elite young player into multiple elite young players. Given their budget constraints—Pittsburgh is a small market and owner Bob Nutting is a notorious cheapskate—broadening their base of young, affordable talent is the only viable path forward for the franchise.
As for which teams might be a fit for Skenes, let's first touch on some honorable mentions before pitching trade packages for seven that have the prospect capital and the right contention timelines to do a deal.
Note: Team prospect rankings are courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter.
Honorable Mentions
2 of 9
Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins
These two prospect-rich franchises are in play for the AL Central title, and both could stand to upgrade their starting rotations.
It's the long-term outlook where the Guardians and Twins don't look as good as suitors for Skenes. Both have a history of being risk-averse when it comes to investing in talent, and the Twins have the added complication of being up for sale.
New York Mets and New York Yankees
We weren't going to get through this exercise without mentioning the New York teams. If they were to get involved in a Skenes bidding war, it would be great content if nothing else.
The problem: Neither club has much to offer in the way of elite prospects, with George Lombard Jr. (No. 44) representing the highest-ranked prospect for MLB Pipeline.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers had the No. 7 system in MLB when Reuter did his rankings in April. With five of their top six prospects being pitchers, they could offer Pittsburgh an array of potential replacements for Skenes.
Yet two of those arms belong to Kumar Rocker, who's injured, and Jack Leiter, who has nearly as many walks as strikeouts since coming off the IL on April 27. Meanwhile, top prospect Sebastian Walcott is being humbled by Double-A.
Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 9
Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get OF Josue De Paula (Dodgers No. 1), OF/C Dalton Rushing (Dodgers No. 2), SS Alex Freeland (Dodgers No. 4)
Why It Works
On paper, the Dodgers entered 2025 with an unfathomably talented starting rotation. Cut to now, though, and injuries to Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Rōki Sasaki have contributed to an overall output of minus-0.2 rWAR.
If this is one "why" for the Dodgers getting in on Skenes, another is that they could because they can. Their farm system is always deep and, as the most preeminent money-printing franchise in MLB, the question of whether they could afford to lock up the Fullerton native would hardly be a question at all.
For the Bucs, this trade would mean turning Skenes into three prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100, with Rushing (No. 15) and De Paula (No. 33) ranking especially near the top. The former is already in the big leagues, while the latter could be ready next year even though he has not yet turned 20.
Why It Doesn't Work
As bad as the Dodgers have had it with their rotation so far, remaining patient is a far less complicated than convincing the Bucs to part with Skenes. Nobody is saying Snell, Glasnow or Sasaki is done for the year, after all.
For their part, it's hard to shake the feeling that the Pirates would need to do better than this to justify trading Skenes. They would ideally get at least one top-10 prospect, and the Dodgers don't have any of those.
.png?w=256)
San Diego Padres
4 of 9
Trade Proposal: San Diego Padres get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get SS Leo De Vries (Padres No. 1), C Ethan Salas (Padres No. 2), LHP Kash Mayfield (Padres No. 3)
Why It Works
For a second year in a row, the Padres have shaken off low expectations to become a serious threat to the Dodgers in the NL West. And yet, they could use pitching both now and later.
Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are down with elbow injuries, and the Padres may not have long with Dylan Cease and Michael King. Unless King's mutual option for 2026 gets exercised, both will be free agents this winter.
This deal otherwise accomplishes something the Dodgers proposal could not, in that it would get a truly elite prospect to Pittsburgh. That's De Vries, a toolsy 18-year-old who ranks at No. 3 overall for MLB Pipeline.
Why It Doesn't Work
De Vries is undeniably a blue-chip prospect, but Mayfield is not top-100 material, and Salas' stock is not what it used to be. Though he still projects as a gifted defender, his bat has largely gone cold since the start of 2024.
In other words, the Pirates could probably do better, and that's without even getting into whether the Padres would want to bring aboard a player with as much earning power as Skenes amid a trying financial time for the franchise.
Philadelphia Phillies
5 of 9
Trade Proposal: Philadelphia Phillies get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get RHP Andrew Painter (Phillies No. 1), SS Aidan Miller (Phillies No. 2), RHP Mick Abel
Why It Works
The Phillies don't need starting pitching. Their staff was fourth in the majors in rWAR last year, and it's leading the pack in that department so far in 2025.
However, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski loves his blockbuster trades, and he's in a spot where all options should be on the table to keep the club's contention window open. The Phillies are a good team, but the roster skews older, and the last two trips to the playoffs have been a letdown.
From the Pirates' perspective, pairing Painter with Bubba Chandler would mean having baseball's best two best pitching prospects together in one system. As a potential .300 hitter with power, Miller would profile as a much-needed franchise shortstop.
Why It Doesn't Work
If anything, this deal would work better for the Pirates than it would for the Phillies.
Even setting aside the fact that they don't need pitching, there is the question of whether swapping out Painter for Skenes would be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Painter has Skenes-like upside, and he should be ready to begin tapping into it at the major league level before the end of this season.
Chicago Cubs
6 of 9
Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get 3B Matt Shaw (Cubs No. 1), RHP Cade Horton (Cubs No. 2), OF Owen Caissie (Cubs No. 4)
Why It Works
Contrary to the Phillies, the Cubs absolutely do need starting pitching. Justin Steele has already been lost for the year with elbow surgery, and the rotation as a whole has produced only 3.0 rWAR.
Sustaining the Cubs has been an offense that leads MLB in scoring even without much help from Shaw, who has a .610 OPS to show for 77 plate appearances. He is therefore an acceptable sacrifice, and ditto for Horton if it means putting Skenes in his place.
For Pittsburgh, this deal would bring MLB Pipeline's No. 18, No. 35 and No. 49 prospects to town. Shaw and Horton could be plugged in right away, and Caissie and his power bat aren't far off from also being ready for The Show.
Why It Doesn't Work
The major hold-up here concerns both teams and boils down to a question: Would we really see a deal of this magnitude between two NL Central rivals?
It's an iffy proposition, particularly given that the Pirates could potentially balk at the return. Shaw has shown a ton of swing-and-miss at the major league level, while Horton is coming off an injury-marred year in the minors.
Detroit Tigers
7 of 9
Trade Proposal: Detroit Tigers get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get OF Max Clark (Tigers No. 1), SS Kevin McGonigle (Tigers No. 2), C Thayron Liranzo (Tigers No. 5)
Why It Works
The Tigers are already a rising power in the American League. Just imagine if they could line up Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Jackson Jobe in their rotation.
That would be a powerhouse trio through at least 2026, after which Skubal is slated to reach free agency. Yet even a Skenes-Jobe duo could sustain Detroit as a World Series contender if Skubal was to leave, and the shortage of guaranteed dollars on the club's long-term books could conceivably allow for extensions for both.
The speedy Clark is MLB Pipeline's No. 7 prospect, so his name alone might get the Bucs to listen if the Tigers called about Skenes. McGonigle (No. 26) and Liranzo (No. 86) are also top-100 types, so this deal would have a bit of everything for Pittsburgh.
Why It Doesn't Work
If the Tigers would rather hang onto Clark in lieu of further bolstering an already strong rotation, that would be fair. He projects as an on-base machine and a difference-maker on the basepaths.
As for the Pirates, the catch with this package is how far all three prospects are from the majors. Liranzo is at Double-A, while Clark and McGonigle have only made it as far as High-A.
Baltimore Orioles
8 of 9
Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get RHP Grayson Rodriguez, C Samual Basallo (Orioles No. 1), 3B/1B Coby Mayo (Orioles No. 2)
Why It Works
The Orioles are wallowing in a mess of their own making. Even if their 15-32 record wasn't foreseeable, their rotation having the worst ERA in the AL sure was.
Still, this experiment must not be abandoned. A pitcher of Skenes' caliber would go a long way toward stabilizing said rotation in 2025 and beyond. The Orioles' base of young offensive talent is otherwise in place for several more seasons, with Adley Rutschman's post-2027 free agency being the only pressing ticking-clock element.
As Rodriguez is still just 25 and controlled through 2029, he'd be a lottery ticket replacement for Skenes in Pittsburgh. Yet Basallo and Mayo would be the real headliners, as they rank as MLB Pipeline's No. 16 and No. 17 prospects, respectively.
Why It Doesn't Work
Frankly, it's hard to think of reasons why the O's should not want to try for a Hail Mary like this. If their experience with Corbin Burnes is any indication, it's not as if they're about to go out and buy the arms they need.
Although Rodriguez is currently injured, this is also a compelling proposal from Pittsburgh's side. Basallo and Mayo are well-regarded because of their power, and the Bucs ought to covet power amid a season in which they've hit only 33 homers.
Boston Red Sox
9 of 9
Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get RHP Paul Skenes; Pittsburgh Pirates get OF Roman Anthony (Red Sox No. 1), SS Franklin Arias (Red Sox No. 4), RHP Luis Perales (Red Sox No. 5)
Why It Works
We mentioned the Garrett Crochet trade a while back, and that is basically the only thing keeping the Red Sox's rotation together. He has a 2.00 ERA, whereas their other starters have combined for a 5.16 ERA.
A trade for Skenes is the best possible fix for 2025. He and Crochet would be locked in as a dynamic ace duo through 2029. And between Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer, said duo would be able to count on the support of a talented offensive core year after year.
With respect to Arias and Perales, Anthony alone would justify this deal for the Pirates. He's basically the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball right now, and his .970 OPS at Triple-A practically screams, "Nothing left to prove!"
Why It Doesn't Work
The Red Sox presumably don't want to part with Anthony, but rarely do No. 1 prospects look this expendable. Anthony is staring up at an outfield with Duran, Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, who's a game-changing defender if nothing else.
For Pittsburgh, doing this deal would result in the club holding each of the top two prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100. Bubba Chandler would take on a destiny as the next Skenes, with Anthony charting his own course as a cornerstone hitter.
In all, it's a real "Who says no?" sort of proposal.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
