The Biggest Winners and Losers of the 2025 NFL Schedule Release

In the NFL, everything is an event. The scouting combine is a multi-day made-for-TV brouhaha. The draft has become as much traveling show as selection of players, drawing thousands of spectators to different cities across the U.S. and millions of viewers on television.

Even the NFL schedule release is a three-hour television show—one that draws more eyes than playoff games in some other sports. And on Wednesday night, the 2025 slate was released.

We have known for months the home and away opponents for each team for some time now. And their opponents' combined winning percentage. And frankly, putting too much weight into what happened last year can be a dangerous proposition. Much can (and will) change from year to year, and there will be bad teams that will exceed expectations in 2025 and good ones who disappoint.

But after seeing not only who teams will play but when they play them, there are some who appear to have emerged as winners and losers from the schedule release. Some have easy starts to the year, while others have a brutal stretch to close the season. And at least one just can't buy a break.

Let's get things started with an AFC contender whose schedule appears to carve a clear path toward the playoffs—and perhaps the conference's No. 1 seed.

Winner: Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Derrick Henry

We already had an idea the Buffalo Bills were going to like the 2025 schedule.

Among last year’s playoff teams, none had an easier combined opponents' winning percentage than their .467. The Bills also have the second-fewest travel miles in the NFL and cross just two time zones all year.

They open with a tough one against the Baltimore Ravens. But if the Bills can prevail at home in that game, there's a real chance they could hit their bye week undefeated.

After that opener, the Bills get more cupcakes than Baked by Melissa. At the New York Jets, home against a Miami Dolphins team that usually falls apart in Western New York.

That Miami game kicks off a three-game homestand that includes two of the NFL's weakest teams on paper in the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints. That's followed by a trip to Atlanta to take on a Falcons team that may or may not be any good.

The confections keep coming post-bye. Yes, the Bills face the Chiefs in Week 9, but it's at home, and Buffalo has owned that rivalry in the regular season. That game is sandwiched between a trip to Carolina and the second matchup of the year with the Dolphins.

The Bills do have one rough patch—Tampa, at Houston and at Pittsburgh in three straight weeks. But Buffalo could have the AFC East wrapped up by then, and the No. 1 seed in the AFC is there for the taking.

Loser: Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Mike Mulholland

Jahmyr Gibbs

The Detroit Lions are coming off their most successful regular season in franchise history, but it has been a tumultuous offseason that included the departures of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

The Lions knew the 2025 slate was going to be a daunting one in terms of opponent winning percentage—only the New York Giants' opponents had a better combined winning percentage than Detroit's .571.

That tends to happen when three teams from a division make the postseason.

Of Detroit's seven games prior to their Week 8 bye, four come against teams that made the playoffs last year. Three are on the road: a Week 1 trip to face the Packers, a Week 3 jaunt to Baltimore and a potential Super Bowl preview in Week 6 at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Things don't ease up after the off week. Week 9 brings a Minnesota Vikings team to town that won 14 games in 2024. After that comes a trip to face a Washington Commanders team that bounced the Lions from last year's playoffs and a road tilt with the Super Bowl champions in Philadelphia.

If the Dallas Cowboys are improved this year, Detroit's closing slate could also be brutal: home dates with the Packers and Cowboys, a trip to L.A. to meet the Rams, a home matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers and an NFC North tilt in Minnesota before closing in Chicago against the Bears.

All told, the Lions play 11 games against 2024 playoff teams. Their odds of going 15-2 again aren't good.

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Baker Mayfield

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t get the pillow-soft slate that the Bills did. But if they can navigate the first two-thirds or so of the season without falling too far off the pace, they will win a lackluster NFC South again.

The first month of the season isn’t especially easy. Tampa's first two games are on the road (including a Monday night trip to Houston), and the Bucs face the Eagles at home in Week 4.

Before their Week 9 bye, they also head to Detroit, although they won at Ford Field last season.

But if Tampa can get past the toughest part of the schedule still in the hunt (trips to the Bills and the Rams in Weeks 11 and 12), we could see the team go on the same sort of late run that won it the division a year ago.

After that Week 12 faceoff with L.A., that's it for the Buccaneers against teams that made the postseason in 2024. Four of their last six are at home, and none come against teams that won more games than they lost. Tampa’s final six opponents of the year were a combined 24 games under .500 a season ago.

In 2024, Tampa went from 4-6 and floundering to 10-7 division champions.

The schedule offers a second straight opportunity to overcome a slow start.

And if they are 7-4 after 12 weeks, the Bucs may be playing for more than just a return to the postseason.

Loser: Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

Dak Prescott

There's never any shortage of hype surrounding the Dallas Cowboys, and the 2025 season is no different.

Dallas is tied for the NFL lead with eight standalone games this year, because the powers-that-be have decided we can't possibly go more than two weeks without the NFC East in prime time.

Well, at least it will afford everyone a chance to see Dallas is a mediocre team. Too soon?

The Cowboys will take part in the Thursday night opener this year, heading to Philly to take an Eagles team that beat Dallas by a combined 61 points in two games in 2024.

The schedule after that isn't brutal, but it's hardly soft. They face Green Bay in prime time in Week 4, have a home tilt with the Commanders in Week 7 and head west to take on a Denver Broncos team that made the playoffs in 2024 the following week.

But four playoff teams in eight games is the least of Dallas' problems. Once the holidays roll around, it's going to get messy.

In Week 12, the Eagles come to Dallas. The following week, the Cowboys take the field at Jerruh World on Turkey Day against the Chiefs. Then comes another Thursday night affair in Detroit, a home game with a Vikings team that won 14 games in 2024, plus meetings with the Chargers and Commanders (on Christmas).

That's six straight games against playoff teams from last year; teams that were a staggering 81-21 a year ago.

That stretch is going to squash any playoff hopes the Cowboys have and make for another awkward offseason in Dallas.

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Christian McCaffrey

We knew the San Francisco 49ers would have something of a soft-looking schedule in 2025. They had the lowest opponents' combined winning percentage in the NFL this year at just .415.

Sure enough, the stage is set for the 49ers to bounce back this year provided the team can do two things.

The first is to avoid the slow starts that have become far too common during the Kyle Shanahan era. The good news in that regard is that the 49ers open at Seattle, at New Orleans, vs. Arizona, and vs. Jacksonville. That's four straight against non-playoff teams, including a trip to face a Saints team that could be the NFL's worst this year.

The whole "travel" thing is the second problem. The 49ers were just 2-6 away from Levi's Stadium last year, and while they play just three playoff teams over the first nine weeks of the campaign, six of those games are on the road. They also don't have a week off until Week 14, which isn't ideal.

But if San Francisco is in the hunt after a Week 10 home date with the rival Rams, things should be OK because the latter stages of the season have more tomato cans than a Campbell's factory.

At Arizona, a Monday night affair with the Carolina Panthers, at Cleveland against a putrid Browns team, at home against a Titans team that may be worse after the bye. At the Colts and Bears (both in prime time) and then closing the season the same way it opened against the Seahawks.

If the 49ers can't wreak havoc in that pile of cotton candy, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

Loser: Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Justin Jefferson

The Minnesota Vikings were arguably the most surprising team in the NFL last year, coming from nowhere to go 14-3.

In 2025, they are going to be one of the most disappointing teams in football—the squad with the largest decrease in wins relative to 2024.

And the schedule isn't helping matters any.

The Vikings already had problems, whether it's an unproven quarterback coming off a major injury in J.J. McCarthy or a pass defense that was among the league's worst a year ago.

Early on at least, things should go fairly well for the Vikes. Just one of their first five opponents made the postseason a year ago (the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have questions galore of their own this year). But that first real test of the season is also the first of two straight international games for Minnesota, and that sort of shake-up to a team's routine can be tough.

The Vikings have Week 6 off, but once they get back, their seventh-toughest strength of schedule (.557) starts to tighten up. Minnesota plays a brutal four-game gauntlet beginning in Week 7: Philadelphia, at the Chargers, at Detroit and Baltimore.

After that, half of Minnesota's opponents made the playoffs last year, including both meetings with the Packers and a Christmas Day go-round with Detroit.

Last year, the Vikings played six games against teams that won more games than they lost. They were a .500 team in those contests.

That's not going to cut it this season, even if the Vikes continue to beat the teams they should defeat.

Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Matt Freed

Joe Burrow

The Cincinnati Bengals were one of the NFL's more disappointing squads a year ago, and the possibility of a Trey Hendrickson holdout looms over them like a dark cloud.

However, if the Bengals stop screwing around and get their star edge-rusher signed, they have a real chance of getting back into the postseason in 2025.

For starters, they won't be suffering from much jetlag in 2025—Cincinnati travels a combined 8,753 miles in 2025, the least in the league. A chunk of that travel comes early in the season, with four of their first six games away from home.

There are some legitimately rough patches. From Week 3 to Week 7, the Bengals take on five straight playoff teams: at Minnesota, at Denver, vs. Detroit, at Green Bay and home on Thursday Night Football against the rival Steelers.

That's a test, and so is a 17-day stretch in Weeks 13-15 that includes two games with the Ravens wrapped around a trip to take on the Bills.

But Cincinnati opens and closes against the hapless Browns, draws the Jaguars at home in Week 2 and ends the season with three straight contests against teams that failed to advance to the playoffs a season ago. And it also gets to take on the Jets, Bears and Patriots all at home.

If the Bengals can split their slugfests and beat the teams they are supposed to, an 11-win season is well within reach.

And that should be enough to get the fighting Joe Burrows back into the postseason tournament.

Loser: New York Giants

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Malik Nabers

Generally speaking, last-place teams are supposed to get last-place schedules. But apparently, the NFL's scheduling computer wants Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen fired as much as many Giants fans.

Because with this schedule, Big Blue is cooked.

No team in the NFL has a slate of opponents with a better combined winning percentage higher than New York's (.574). It's not bad enough that it has four games against the two participants in last year's NFC Championship Game.

Only the Eagles and the Lions play more 2024 playoff teams than the 10 the G-Men will face. Philly and Detroit are arguably the two best teams in the NFC; the Giants, um, are not.

It’s almost laughable. There were two divisions that placed three teams in the playoffs last year: the AFC West and the NFC North. The Giants get to take on all six of those teams, beginning with a home date on Sunday Night Football with the Chiefs in Week 3.

Three of New York’s first four opponents made the postseason in 2024: the Commanders, Chiefs and Chargers. Over the first eight weeks of the year, it’s six playoff teams. There is one game over that span when the Giants might be favored—at New Orleans in Week 5.

After that, there are still contests against the Packers, at Detroit, and home against the Commanders and Vikings.

Of course, the Giants may well have an interim coach by then. If New York starts the season 1-7, which is a real possibility, Daboll isn't going to make it to their bye in Week 14.