Imagining 2025 NFL Draft If the League Followed NBA Draft Lottery System

The NBA draft lottery again produced straight-up drama and intrigue this week, with the Dallas Mavericks defying astronomical odds to land the No. 1 overall pick.

That got us thinking about the NFL draft system that simply rewards the league's worst teams without any wrinkles. 

Could it work? And what might it have looked like this offseason? 

Let's have some fun with the thought.

If It Went Down Just as This Year's NBA Lottery Did...

AP Photo/Chris Carlson

Panthers HC Dave Canales

We took the NFL's 18 non-playoff teams from 2024, matched them with their NBA equivalents in the leaguewide standings, and then placed them where they would have landed based on Monday's NBA lottery results. 

Here's how the NFL draft would have looked under those circumstances:

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. New York Giants
5. Tennessee Titans
6. Cleveland Browns
7. New England Patriots
8. Las Vegas Raiders
9. New York Jets
10. New Orleans Saints
11. Chicago Bears
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Miami Dolphins
14. Indianapolis Colts
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Arizona Cardinals
17. Cincinnati Bengals
18. Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers were positioned where the Mavericks were and are thus the big winner. The Panthers also move up six spots like the Spurs, while the Jaguars move up a couple of spots like the 76ers (ironically, they traded up three spots in real life). 

The biggest losers are the Titans and Browns (dropping four slots each) and the Patriots (dropping three). The Raiders and Jets drop two positions each, the Saints and Bears lose a spot each, and everyone from Dallas on down remains the same.

Lottery-Style NFL Mock Draft

AP Photo/David Zalubowsk

Travis Hunter

If things played out the way they did above, here's how I predict the first round would have gone down:

1. San Francisco 49ers: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado

With Carolina and Jacksonville on deck, teams likely wouldn't feel the need to give up a king's ransom for a quarterback in the top spot. San Francisco happily addresses some key spots with the best player in the draft. 

2. Carolina Panthers: Edge Abdul Carter, Penn State

I think the Titans, Giants and Browns would consider trying to leapfront the Giants here, but Carter is too tough to pass up and the Jags' spot should be open with Hunter off the board. 

3. New York Giants (from Jacksonville): QB Cam Ward, Miami (FL)

With Carter off the board, the Giants go out of their way to ensure they at least land the draft's top quarterback. The Jaguars potentially take less for the G-Men knowing they are keeping a potential franchise quarterback from Cleveland and Tennessee. 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (from NY Giants): DT Mason Graham, Michigan

The alternative scenario that comes to mind? Instead of trading up from 5 to 2 for Hunter in the real world, they trade up here from 4 to 1 for the same player. I'm just not sure the 49ers would go for it. 

5. Tennessee Titans: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

Left in the dust on Ward, they address a need with fair value by adding a potential star receiver for whoever they draft to take over under center. (Jaxson Dart? Shedeur Sanders? Someone next year?)

6. Cleveland Browns: RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

With Graham off the board, they wouldn't be able to resist Jeanty's talent. 

7. New England Patriots: OT Will Campbell, LSU

How about that? The Patriots still get their guy.

8. Las Vegas Raiders: OT Armand Membou, Missouri

No Jeanty or McMillan, but this is solid value and helps them keep building the offense right. 

9. New York Jets: OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas

Next tackle off the board for a team clearly lacking at the position, as they drafted Membou in reality. 

10. New Orleans Saints: Edge Mykel Williams, Georgia

This was a popular and sensible mock draft prediction for a team needing help across the board. They took Banks in reality, but he's gone here. 

11. Chicago Bears: TE Colston Loveland, Michigan

The Bears still get their guy despite losing a spot. 

From here on down, there would be no reason for any change. 

Yay or Nay?

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Just like with the NBA in this particular case, this scenario is obviously worse for the sake of parity. It would make an already-talented 49ers team that is better than its 2024 record a heck of a lot better, while severely punishing a bad Titans team. 

There isn't a huge immediate impact on anyone else, except that the bouncing balls land the Giants (and maybe the Browns) a better path to a franchise quarterback, and I would be ticked off if I were a key 49ers rival like Arizona, Seattle or the Rams. 

Is that short-term drama worth the ding to the competitive balance that the NFL prides itself on? Probably not. 

Now, could it also work as a tool to prevent teams from completely tanking? Sure, but I don't view that as any sort of epidemic right now. Teams know the draft is a crapshoot, and it's not easy to tank when players have millions of dollars on the line in an era when 14 playoff spots are up for grabs. 

This method also fuels conspiracy theories quite frequently, and I think we've all had enough of that of late. 

Of course, there could be alternative approaches. 

A draft tournament is likely out of the question for a league like this, and weighting already exists in the current format. In the event of the adoption of a lottery system, the best approach would be for the league to adopt a weighted approach that could be continually adjusted until a sweet spot is found in terms of intrigue and any potential tanking. 

It's possible the sweet spot in question is that the NFL decides nobody is tanking to a marked degree, in which case the value associated with a lottery is limited to only relatively short-term thrills. 

If that's the case, the goldmine for fandom that is the NFL might be better off leaving this entire process to its professional basketball counterpart.