MLB Execs See Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz as Players Who Can Top Soto's Contract

Juan Soto shattered even the most optimistic projections for his contract when he signed a 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets in December. The idea of anyone topping that in the near future seems somewhat hard to believe.

In a survey of current MLB executives and agents by ESPN's Jeff Passan, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson was the most-cited player who could potentially beat Soto's deal, although they said "it's a long shot."

Multiple executives also named Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz as someone who might surpass the $765 million threshold.

It's notable that Henderson and De La Cruz were singled out as the most likely to exceed Soto's deal given how many years away they are from free agency. Henderson has all three year arbitration years remaining before he can hit the market after 2028. De La Cruz still has one more pre-arb year before becoming arbitration-eligible in 2027, meaning the earliest he can hit free agency is after the 2029 season.

That means it may be at least three years before someone realistically has a chance to hit the $765 million mark. Before that happens, MLB Players Association executive director Tony Clark has said he's anticipating a lockout when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2026 season.

Alex Sherman and Lillian Rizzo of CNBC reported last month that MLB is looking at adding a salary cap in the next CBA. This has been bantered about before, but it has never gotten very far because the union wouldn't want to limit the potential earning power for its members.

There's no indication that players are thinking differently about a salary cap this time around, but that won't stop the owners from pursuing it under the guise of closing the payroll disparity between the top and bottom teams in baseball.

If MLB did implement a salary cap, the likelihood of a player surpassing Soto's deal would decrease even further. Committing that much of the cap to one player makes it harder to fill out a roster.

Even if you tried to make a comparison between what NFL teams do with quarterbacks, it's not a one-to-one model because no MLB player is as involved on a play-to-play basis as a quarterback is in football.

Assuming there is no salary cap, any player matching Soto's contract would need to have a track record close to what he did for his first seven years in the big leagues and hit free agency at a very young age.

Soto ranked fifth in MLB in FanGraphs' wins above replacement from 2018 to '24 (36.3). His worst season by wRC+ was 143 in 2019, meaning he was still 43 percent better than league average as an offensive player.

Neither Henderson nor De La Cruz are that level of hitter, but their value is boosted by virtue of playing shortstop. De La Cruz finished tied for sixth among all players in FanGraphs' defensive value in 2024 (16.7).

Henderson's defense is more solid than spectacular. His outs above average has never been better than zero in a season since making his MLB debut in 2022. He has finished in the top eight in AL MVP voting in each of his first two full seasons, including a fourth-place showing last year.

By the time Henderson and De La Cruz hit free agency, they will be entering their age-28 seasons. Soto hit free agency after his age-25 season.

If you factor in inflation by the time Henderson and De La Cruz hit free agency, a $765 million contract will be worth less than it is today. From that standpoint, it could help them hit or surpass Soto's contract.

All of this also requires a track record of health and elite performance for the next several years for both players. De La Cruz is only in his second full MLB season after playing 160 games in 2024.

Henderson has played at least 150 games in each of the previous two years. He's off to a slow start in 2025 with a .260/.300/.433 slash line in 26 games after starting the season on injured list due to an intercostal strain.