Examining Shedeur, Shilo Sanders and More Players' Odds of Making Roster or Being Cut

The 2025 NFL draft class and a slew of undrafted rookies are preparing for their first training camp.

Over the coming months, many of these players will be released. Whether that marks the end of their pro football journey or just a bump in the road remains to be seen, but with squads able to carry as many as 90 players during camp and needing to trim down to 53 by late-August, these cuts are inevitable.

Many of the well-regarded prospects taken over the first three rounds of the draft are near-locks to make the team and won't need to worry about getting called into the office, but players taken in the fourth round or later have a much tougher road ahead.

The low historical odds of succeeding as a Day 3 or undrafted prospect doesn’t mean a player can't make an impact early in their careers, but these unheralded talents are embarking on a tougher road than the ones their Day 1 and 2 peers will travel.

It's worth noting that forecasting the career of an NFL prospect is a brutally difficult endeavor. Even the most renowned general managers only hit on a small percentage of their picks. During a 20-year span between 1995-2015, 16.7 percent of drafted players didn’t even suit up for the franchise that drafted them and a whopping 37 percent were considered "useless."

A meager 20 percent of prospects went on to have a decent career, with just 7.9 percent having a "great" or "legendary" run in the NFL.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the more notable late-round and undrafted prospects and evaluate their chances of making a roster for the 2025 NFL season.

WR Elijhah Badger, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Colin E. Braley

Elijhah Badger may be the crown jewel of the Kansas City Chiefs' 2025 undrafted free-agent class, a group that includes 16 prospects so far.

The wideout started his collegiate career at Arizona State, leading the Sun Devils in receiving yardage for both the 2022 and 2023 seasons. After transferring to Florida last year, the talented pass-catcher didn't skip a beat and finished with a team-high 806 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 39 catches.

Rated as the No. 224 overall prospect and No. 30 wideout on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's Big Board, Badger possesses plenty of qualities professional teams covet for their receiving corps.

During his trip to the scouting combine, he showed he has adequate size (measuring in at 6'1", 200 lbs) and solid athleticism (running a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and posting a 35.5” vertical leap) to go along with his proven production.

He may not be a burner or as physically dominant at the next level, but working in an offense led by Patrick Mahomes should make the transition easy for the young pass-catcher.

Badger projects as an ideal WR4 in Kansas City's system, a player who may not emerge as a starter but one who can make good things happen during the handful of times he will touch the ball every Sunday.

The Chiefs have a relatively deep receiving corps—Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are locked in as the top three—but there's room for more competition.

Veterans such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross are set to battle with fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals for a spot in the pecking order during training camp, but Badger should be right in the mix with a real chance to slip into one of the final roster spots with a promising camp showing.

Even if he doesn't make the initial cut, Badger would be a major asset for the practice squad. He could even see a quick promotion to the active roster if the injury bug plagues the Kansas City receivers room the way it has in recent years.

Badger's odds to make final roster: 20 percent

QB Quinn Ewers, Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Eric Gay

Quinn Ewers capped off a stellar collegiate career by taking Texas deep into the College Football Playoff. Despite this impressive swansong, though, he didn't hear his name called until the last round of the 2025 draft when he landed with the Miami Dolphins at No. 231 overall.

Ewers—the No. 106 overall prospect and No. 6 QB on the B/R Scouting Department's final big board—may not have experienced as drastic a slide as fellow signal-caller Shedeur Sanders, but it was rather shocking to see teams pass on the talented prospect until the tail end of the draft.

The 22-year-old believed he could go as early as the second round and plans to use the fall as motivation to thrive in the NFL.

Th former Longhorns star told ESPN's Todd Archer:

"It's definitely a lot of motivation that comes with it, especially just being the last [quarterback] drafted. I still have the high expectations for myself, but just from the outside looking in, this is the first time in my life to not have that much expectation. There's definitely motivation and fuel. A lot of it."

Despite not coming off the board nearly as early as he was hoping, Ewers did land in a spot that could see him not only make the final roster but also see the field early in his career.

The Miami quarterbacks room currently only consists of incumbent starter Tua Tagovailoa, first-round pick-turned-journeyman Zach Wilson and Ewers.

While Tagovailoa is locked in as Miami's QB1, he has missed plenty of time throughout his NFL career while dealing with concussions and other injuries. He has only participated in 64 of a possible 84 regular-season contests since entering the league and has suited up for a full season just once in five years—most recently missing six games in 2024.

Wilson isn't a lock to earn the backup job, either. While he was once regarded as a standout prospect when the New York Jets took him No. 2 overall in 2021, he’s now with his third team in the last three seasons, has a career completion rate of just 57 percent and thrown more interceptions (25) than touchdowns (23) over 34 career games.

After completing 65 percent of his throws for 9,128 yards and 68 touchdowns with 24 interceptions while going 27-9 during a three-year run as Texas' starter, Ewers clearly has the tools to get the job done at the next level. He's also shown an ability to step up when the competition heats up, fending off one of the most hyped prospects of this generation in Arch Manning over the last two campaigns.  

At worst, Ewers is a shoo-in to be the third quarterback on the Miami roster this year. At best, he will beat out Wilson for the backup role and enter the starting lineup if Tagovailoa misses more time in 2025.

Ewers' odds to make final roster: 90 percent

S Shilo Sanders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

The drastic fall of his brother may have been the 2025 draft's biggest storyline, but Shilo Sanders going undrafted barely moved the needle.

The Colorado safety was considered a fringe Day 3 prospect at best going into the event, but teams ultimately elected to go different directions rather than roll the dice on a 25-year-old defensive back with limited potential.

Sanders eventually caught on with a team, though, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers issued him a standard undrafted rookie deal.

According to NFL Rookie Watch, Drew Rosenhaus—Sanders' newly hired agent following the dismissal of father Deion from that role—"pleaded" with Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht to sign his client.

The Bucs are incurring almost no financial risk by signing Sanders (he would make just $840,000 by earning a spot on the final roster), but the rookie faces a brutal journey to secure that money.

Tampa finished the 2024 season with just four safeties on the final roster. It's likely the squad will start out 2025 with that same number, with one spot already cinched up by Antoine Winfield Jr. He signed a four-year, $84.1 million contract last May that made him, at the time, the highest-paid defensive back in history.

Although the Bucs did decline a team option on Jordan Whitehead—their other starting safety in 2024—the coaching staff has hinted that second-year defensive back Tykee Smith will be moving from nickel to safety and starting in 2025.

Christian Izien, who also suited up at the nickel last year, is also a strong candidate to move to safety as well and can provide depth behind Smith. If Izien has a strong camp, that leaves just one spot left that Sanders could catch on at.

Unfortunately for the Colorado product, that seat is one that Kaevon Merriweather has the inside track to earn.

Merriweather already has solid experience in Tampa's system. He's been with the team since catching on as an UDFA two seasons ago and has fared well in limited regular-season action.

Given Merriweather is the same age as Sanders with far more reps already under his belt, it's going to take a dismal camp—coupled with Sanders showing out—to lose the positional battle.

Sanders' odds to make final roster: 10 percent

QB Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

No player endured a more brutal draft slide than Shedeur Sanders. He was projected by many to be a first-rounder, but he didn't hear his name called until the Cleveland Browns stopped his fall in Round 5 with the No. 144 overall pick.

Sanders' selection rounds out what now appears to be the most crowded quarterbacks room in the league.

While the Colorado product won't be competing with incumbent Deshaun Watson—who is likely to miss the entire season with an Achilles tear—he will have to duke it out with veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett in addition to fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel (the No. 94 overall pick) during training camp.

Although NFL talent evaluators weren't nearly as high on Sanders' professional prospects as analysts such as ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.—who rated the Buffaloes star as the No. 5 overall player and No. 1 at his position in the class—he does possess impressive accuracy and a strong pocket presence that should help him make a splash in camp.

Working in his favor is his massive popularity.

There have been whispers that the selection was a mandate from team ownership, and there's even speculation owner Jimmy Haslam will exert his influence to get Sanders into the starting lineup quickly.

While the on-field ramifications of such a move won't be revealed for some time, the Browns are already reaping the financial benefits of Sanders’ presence via jersey sales and other merchandising.

Sanders has a massive social media following (boasting an audience of over 2 million on Instagram alone) and notably earned a $6.5 million On3 NIL valuation—ranking second in college football behind only Arch Manning—during his tenure at Colorado.

While this impressive branding doesn't guarantee him a roster spot, it wouldn't be surprising if Sanders is far more protected than an average Day 3 prospect.

Factor in that his talent gives him a legitimate chance to compete for a prominent spot on Cleveland's quarterback depth chart, and it's clear Sanders is a lock to make the final roster.

Sanders' odds to make final roster: 99 percent