Duke Basketball: 5 Things That Should Worry Fans in 2015-16
The glow still exists from Duke's national title run this past March and April, and the Blue Devils have kept the momentum going by making a big splash on the recruiting trail with a major commitment for 2016-17. Throw in a stellar incoming freshman class and everything is coming up Millhouse for Duke.
Or is it?
Ask any college basketball coach and there are always concerns and worries, even for programs as seemingly successful as Duke. Mike Krzyzewski no doubt has some things he is uncertain about for the 2015-16 team, and as a result fans are likely to get stressed as well.
Here are five things that Duke fans should be most worried about heading into the upcoming season.
Lack of Senior Leadership
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The prevalence of players who leave college early for the NBA draft has drained college basketball of veteran leadership, especially among the power programs. Most make up for this by bringing in newcomers who are so talented that the lack of experience and wisdom doesn't matter, but it's still a concern for young teams heading into a season.
Duke might have its youngest team ever under Mike Krzyzewski for 2015-16, with the just-updated roster including seven freshmen to go with two sophomores, two juniors, a senior and a graduate student.
This is compared to last year's team, which featured seven underclassmen on the 11-man roster but only four freshmen.
The biggest difference between the seasons comes in the quality of the upperclassmen, at least in terms of leadership. Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones and Marshall Plumlee all had their roles in 2014-15, but while Jefferson and Jones shared a starting spot neither is likely to be in the lineup this year.
That will mean the Blue Devils' veterans will all be coming off the bench and there will be many times when the entire unit on the floor is made up of freshmen and a sophomore (Grayson Allen), who averaged only 9.2 minutes per game.
No Defined Go-To Player
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For the second year in a row, Duke's play is going to be heavily dependent on freshmen. That's not so unusual in today's college game, but in most cases there's still a notable returner that gets looked at as a go-to player or one of those newcomers is so well-regarded the team is shaped around them.
Who would that be for the 2015-16 Blue Devils, though? Who is the face of this team?
It might just be Grayson Allen, he of the two superb Final Four performances that were preceded by several months of very little involvement whatsoever.
"It's very different for me, having not that much game experience last year but feeling like the old guy on the team because there's only four guys returning and I'm just a sophomore," Allen told Luke DeCock of the Charlotte Observer.
Allen averaged just 4.4 points per game last season as a freshman, the only one of the four phenoms from the 2014-15 recruiting class that didn't turn pro. He seems like the unlikeliest person to be Duke's go-to player, but without any of the incoming stars standing out from the pack—compared to Jahlil Okafor a year ago—it might just end up being his job by default until someone else establishes himself.
Not Enough Minutes to Go Around
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Mike Krzyzewski has regularly gone with a rather thin rotation over the years, and none of his teams in the past decade have had more than seven players average 20 or more minutes per game. The 2015-16 version could be one of his deepest in a while, though, depending on how many of his newcomers he trusts enough with valuable minutes.
How those freshmen get used is a key to how the upcoming season goes, especially after the success of last year's trio of Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow. They were the stars of the championship team, and all left after one season to turn pro and get drafted in the first round.
Incoming prospects like guard Derryck Thornton and forwards Brandon Ingram and Chase Jeter might be thinking they're in line to do the same thing, but if they don't get the same amount of minutes—those 2014-15 freshmen averaged 31 minutes per game—there could be issues.
There's also the problem of finding time for the rest of Duke's expected contributors, such as freshman Luke Kennard, sophomore Grayson Allen and junior Matt Jones at the two, as well as a suddenly crowded frontcourt because of holdovers Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee and Rice transfer Sean Obi.
Too many good players should be a good problem, but before Kentucky made the platoon so successful, in most cases it ended up leading to displeasure over playing time.
No True Nonconference Road Games
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With a challenging ACC schedule awaiting it in January, Duke doesn't need to make its nonconference slate too overwhelming. Just enough to get its team prepared for the league gauntlet and help its newcomers adapt to the rigors of the college game.
The one thing this relatively new team won't be prepared for after the first two months, though, is a hostile environment. Duke has no true road games scheduled, instead playing nine home games and four at neutral sites. It's the second time in three seasons the Blue Devils won't have such a game prior to ACC play.
Sure, those games in Chicago (against Kentucky in the Champions Classic) and in New York City (in the 2K Classic, against two teams from the lineup of Georgetown, VCU and Wisconsin, as well as a later game against Utah) will be quality matchups, but most of those venues tend to be pro-Duke in terms of the crowd. The Kentucky game probably won't, but it will still be played in a large NBA arena rather than on a college campus with students hovering over the court.
Last year, Duke's win at Wisconsin—who it went on to beat in the NCAA title game—served as a great test for the young group and showed they were ready for the long road ahead. This group won't know what it's like to be the enemy in an arena until where Duke first plays on the road in the ACC.
Recent NCAA Title Defense History
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Being the defending national champion in college basketball is a great thing. Until the next season begins, and then it's just another reason for opponents to get hyped for the game.
The fate of recent NCAA champs hasn't been particularly great. Since Florida won back-to-back titles in 2005-06 and 2006-07, the defending title-holders have failed to make it past the Sweet 16 the following season. And four of the last eight didn't even make the NCAA tournament, instead relegated to the NIT, including 2013-14 champ Connecticut and 2011-12 winner Kentucky.
After Duke won the title in 2009-10, it reached the Sweet 16 the following year. That team had two senior starters (Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith), and its only significant freshman contributor (Kyrie Irving) missed 26 games because of a toe injury.
Trends are made to be broken, but recent history isn't in Duke's favor for 2015-16.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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