9 Kentucky Derby 2025 Prop Bet Ideas for Your Race-Day Party
Break out your fanciest hat, pour some mint juleps and make sure you're well-stocked with pimiento cheese, because Kentucky Derby weekend is upon us.
The 151st Run for the Roses is taking place this Saturday at Churchill Downs, with the main event's post time set for 6:57 p.m. As always, there will be plenty of excitement, pageantry and, of course, a whole lot of betting.
Last year's Kentucky Derby, which featured Mystik Dan winning in a photo finish, featured a record $210.7 million in betting action. That does not include all the wagers between friends and family at parties around the country, which is the kind of betting we're going to focus on here today.
Sure, you could simply bet on which horse will win, but that's only fun for about two minutes of the broadcast. Why not make friendly wagers about the length of "My Old Kentucky Home," the birthplace of the winning horse or how many horses legendary announcer Larry Collmus will name during the fastest two minutes in sports?
As you decide on your best eye-catching outfit for your race-day party this weekend, take a look at these nine betting options that should add a jolt of fun to your Derby day.
What's in a Name?
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Here's the thing about horse racing: Most people are casual viewers who don't know anything about the horses other than their names. And that's OK!
Part of the fun of the Kentucky Derby is reading all the new and interesting horse names that pop up each year. Journalism? Yup, that's a horse—and the favorite at that. Sandman? Probably the new favorite horse among Yankees fans. East Avenue and Burnham Square? They're running the Derby, too.
In the simplest form of betting at your party, most people are likely to pick a name and run with it. But can we get a little more intricate? How about exactas (betting on the horse that will finish in first and second, in order) and trifectas (betting on the top three finishers in their specific order)?
Now those are a bit spicier. Of course, you could go with an exacta of favorites Journalism (3-1 odds) and Sovereignty (5-1 odds)—and potentially add in Sandman (6-1 odds) for a trifecta—but where's the fun in that?
If you're looking to make things interesting and want to bet on names that share a common theme, why not pair Journalism and Publisher (20-1)? Or Luxor Cafe (15-1) and Grande (20-1)? Maybe you really get wild with Sandman (6-1), Coal Battle (30-1) and Chunk of Gold (30-1)?
That last trifecta has about a 0.01 percent chance of happening, but can you imagine the bragging rights you'd earn for making that call? Maybe don't put any real money on it, though.
How Many Horses Will Larry Collmus Name During the Race?
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"They're off...in the Kentucky Derby!"
Those have been the iconic words spoken by NBC announcer Larry Collmus at the opening of the Kentucky Derby gate for the past 14 years. This year, Collmus will set the record for the most consecutive Derbies called on national TV, and he's been diligently preparing for the moment.
It's his job to breathlessly keep viewers aware of every leader, every horse making a move, which favorite might be slipping back, who is on the rail, etc. He needs to know every horse, every number, every jockey and every trainer and be able to rattle off all that information during the chaotic two minutes of the race.
By our count, Collmus uttered the name of a horse at least 48 times during last year's race. Can he beat that this year?
You'll probably have to replay the race multiple times after it's finished to get an accurate count, but set the over/under at 50 (or 49.5 if you don't want any ties) and see who will bite.
Our bet is on the over, mostly because betting against the speed of Collmus' speech seems disrespectful.
Which Horse Will Finish Last?
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Everybody spends a lot of time talking about the horse that will win the Kentucky Derby, but one of them has to come in last. So, what about that horse?
With eight horses sitting at 30-1 odds, there are plenty of contenders for last to cross the finish line. That doesn't even take into account any horses than unexpectedly struggle or get stuck behind the pack.
Your race-day party will surely have interest in people picking the winner, but make sure to show some love to the loser, too—especially since nailing the last-place finisher is probably even more of a crapshoot.
If you're looking for a "favorite" to finish last, go ahead and back Owen Almighty. After struggling in the Blue Grass Stakes, Owen Almighty's trainer ruled him out for the Kentucky Derby. Eight days later, the horse's owner reversed course and ensured he would be entered.
Owen Almighty is now starting in the 19th position from the pole—he was moved up from 20th after Rodriguez was scratched on Thursday—in a race that already is considered to be too long for him. It's a perfect recipe for a last-place finish.
What Color Silk Will the Winning Jockey Be Wearing?
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The racing silks worn by jockeys aren't just a personal fashion statement. Rather, they're totally unique and reflective of the horse's owners. No owner can copy or reproduce the design of any other owner, and all silk designs are registered with the Jockey Club.
Silks where the primary color was blue (17) have accounted for the most Derby wins, while green silks are a close second at 16. Last year's winner, Mystik Dan, marked just the sixth time the winning jockey's silk was primarily black.
There are any number of wagers that can be made on the winning silk. Will the silk feature more than two colors? Will the silk feature any shapes (circles, stars, diamonds)? Will the silk have a letter on it?
Any of those would be fun to dive into to and bet on, but for our purposes here, let's simply try to project the predominant color of the winning silk. Seven of the jockeys will be wearing silks that are predominantly blue, including Junior Alvarado riding Sovereignty (5-1 odds). Umberto Rispoli, who will be riding favorite Journalism, is the only jockey whose silk is primarily black, so keep that in mind, too.
Give us the blues, though.
Baffert's Back, Back Again
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It's been three years, but acclaimed trainer Bob Baffert is back at Churchill Downs.
The legendary trainer of six Kentucky Derby winners—not to mention two horses that have won the Triple Crown—received what ultimately became a three-year suspension in 2021 after Medina Spirit tested positive for betamethasone. Baffert, who is known for his affable personality alongside his success as a trainer, was forced out of the spotlight after being dead center of it for more than two decades.
But with that suspension over, Baffert is now back in Barn 33 and was in line to have a pair of horses in this year's race—Rodriguez (12-1 odds) and Citizen Bull (20-1). That is, until Thursday when Rodriguez was scratched from the race because of a foot injury.
Before Rodriguez's injury, we had planned to put forward a "Baffert vs. The Field" prop bet. Given their respective odds, the combined chance of Rodriguez or Citizen Bull winning is about 12.5 percent (1 in 8).
Even with one horse in the race, Baffert will still be a lightning rod for pre-race conversations and factor heavily into NBC's programming, so gamifying his presence shouldn't be too difficult. Maybe you can solicit guesses on how many times Baffert is mentioned or shown during the broadcast. Given his stature in horse racing, definitely don't pick a low number.
Will the Winning Horse Lead Wire to Wire?
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In the 150 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, only 23 horses have won wire-to-wire. In the case of the Derby since 1960, wire-to-wire is defined as being in the lead at each of the call points—quarter-mile, half-mile, three-quarter-mile, mile, stretch and finish.
Medina Spirit, the aforementioned 2021 winner of the Kentucky Derby who was later disqualified, also went wire-to-wire and was the last horse to do so. The last horse on record as a wire-to-wire winner was another Bob Baffert horse, Authentic, who achieved the feat in 2020. Unsurprisingly, the last horse to do it before Authentic was another Baffert horse, War Emblem, in 2002.
Taking the Derby's full history as well as the past 25 years into account, the odds of a horse going wire-to-wire are roughly 15 percent. We wouldn't bet that a horse is going to do it this year, but if you can find someone willing to give you long enough odds, then it could be worth a shot.
Over/Under 1:30 for the Length of 'My Old Kentucky Home'
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The bugler has called the horses to the post and they're entering Churchill Downs. Everyone in the massive crowd is on their feet, as the moment they've been waiting for has finally arrived.
And, of course, that's when the University of Louisville Marching Band and Cardinal Singers begin their annual rendition of "My Old Kentucky Home."
While the song remains the same year after year, the length of time it takes to play it can vary. It's usually close to 90 seconds from the first note to the last, but no two iterations are exactly the same.
Before you sing along this year, poll your party guests as to whether they think "My Old Kentucky Home" will go over or under 90 seconds. And while you sing, hold a mint julep in one had and a timing apparatus in the other to see who ends up being right.
Just how long the singers decide to hold that final "awayyyyy" could make all the difference. That said, give us the under.
Over/Under 45 All-Star Appearances for Athletes in Attendance
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The Kentucky Derby brings out plenty of stars, and pro athletes are always well represented among the who's who at Churchill Downs. That being the case, there's an opportunity to make things interesting as you and your party watch race coverage all day.
Our recommendation is to track the pro athlete sightings and count up all the All-Star/Pro Bowl appearances among the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL players (current and retired) that either walk the red carpet or are shown in attendance during the broadcast. Ahead of time, you can either have people guess what the final total will be or set an over/under for that final total (we'd recommend something around 45).
Last year, for example, there were 35-plus Pro Bowls among the NFL players in attendance, including Aaron Rodgers, Travis Kelce, Warren Moon and Emmitt Smith. Rodgers is expected to be back this year, and Kelce could return with his seven-time Pro Bowl brother Jason in tow.
And those are just the NFL players—though it is easier for them to attend since they're the only of the four American sports that is not currently in season. However, anyone could always show up for this year's Run of the Roses.
Maybe former Louisville star Lamar Jackson stops by, or maybe former Kentucky star Devin Booker makes an appearance since the Phoenix Suns aren't in the playoffs. A few years ago, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski had a good time at Churchill Downs, so what if they return and are joined by 17-time Pro Bowler Tom Brady?
The possibilities are endless, which can make celebrity spotting all the more exciting during the lead-up to the race itself.
Will the Winning Horse Have Been Born in Kentucky?
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This might be a great chance for you to flex some horse knowledge.
According to the Lexington Herald Leader, of the 2022 crop of foals (the year the horses that will compete in this year's Kentucky Derby were born), 7,754 of the 18,700 North American foals were born in Kentucky. Among the 20 horses in this year's Derby, all but two were born in Kentucky.
The outliers are Neoequos (foaled in Florida) and Admire Daytona (foaled in Japan), which both have 30-1 odds of winning the race.
That being the case, it's incredibly likely that the winner will be a horse from Kentucky. It's possible not everyone will know that fact, so if you can get good odds on a Kentucky vs. The World wager, you should certainly do so.
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