2025 NBA Play-In Predictions: Warriors-Grizzlies, Kings-Mavs, Magic-Hawks, Bulls-Heat
The NBA regular season has wrapped, and we're now headed to the 2025 Play-In Tournament.
Tuesday, the Orlando Magic will host the Atlanta Hawks in the East's 7-8 game, while the Golden State Warriors will be home for the Memphis Grizzlies. One night later, the Miami Heat will visit the Chicago Bulls, while the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Sacramento Kings.
Our predictions for all four games—based on team and individual numbers, recent trends, home-court advantage and plenty of subjectivity—can be found below.
(8) Atlanta Hawks vs. (7) Orlando Magic
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These teams closed out their 2024-25 campaigns against each other on Sunday, with the Atlanta Hawks winning, 117-105.
But, like much of the rest of the NBA on the season's last day, neither team played anything resembling its regular rotation. There's almost nothing to take away from this result.
The better indicator of what might happen in Tuesday's play-in game is the few weeks of Magic basketball prior to Sunday. Before that loss, Orlando had won nine of 11 and seemingly found a functional first five along the way.
Since March 16, Cory Joseph, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. have been the team's regular starters. And that lineup has a plus-10.2 net rating for the season.
Having floor spacers who don't command a ton of touches from Wagner and Banchero is working. And while Atlanta has some rangy, playmaking defenders, they're not really big enough to bother Orlando's star forwards.
The Hawks have their own advantages in this matchup. Joseph isn't a great option to cover Trae Young. And Zaccharie Risacher's shooting has been a game-changer in recent weeks.
But the Magic's defense is consistent, connected and will be fueled by a home crowd hungry for another playoff appearance.
Expect Orlando to win a close one.
Prediction: Orlando Magic
(8) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Golden State Warriors
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Earlier this month, when the Warriors beat the Grizzlies in Memphis, 134-125, it felt like they were trending toward a top-six finish and avoidance of the play-in tournament. But losing three of their last five games doomed them to a high-stakes rematch with Ja Morant and company.
Of course, Golden State is in the best possible situation a play-in team can be in. They're at home, and they have two chances to win just one game.
Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane certainly aren't spring chickens, but they also have nowhere near as much postseason experience as Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green.
Even though they aren't technically in an elimination game yet, expect those three to approach this game like one.
That, in combination with the Grizzlies still adjusting to life under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo (Taylor Jenkins was fired the same day as that last loss to Golden State), should be enough to secure a win.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
(10) Miami Heat vs. (9) Chicago Bulls
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Despite being in the bottom half of the inferior conference's play-in tournament, both of these teams have pretty clearly been on an upward trajectories, of late.
The Heat are 8-4 in their last 12, with Bam Adebayo looking a lot more like the All-Star version of himself. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 15-5 since March 6, with Josh Giddey nearly averaging a triple-double over that span. One of those recent wins is against Miami, too.
So, there's certainly a temptation to go with Chicago, which will be at home and opened as a slight betting favorite.
But, as is the case with the Warriors-Grizzlies matchup, there is a pretty significant experience gap here.
Miami's two best players, Adebayo and Tyler Herro have both made deep playoff runs. They've both escaped the play-in in the past. And they're both in a groove right now.
During the aforementioned 12-game run, Herro is averaging 27.4 points and 4.9 assists, while shooting 47.4 percent from deep. Adebayo is at 21.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.3 steals in the same stretch.
Those two will play well on Wednesday, and Miami will get just enough help from the young supporting cast to escape with a road win.
Prediction: Miami Heat
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(10) Dallas Mavericks vs. (9) Sacramento Kings
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Despite the tumult of this entire campaign for the Dallas Mavericks, they've actually won Anthony Davis' limited minutes. And they've played some solid defense in those possessions.
Without Kyrie Irving, though, the Mavericks offense is, at best, a bit of a slog. And even against Sacramento's below-average defense, it's hard to imagine Dallas having enough firepower to pull off the upset on the road.
Sacramento, of course, hasn't been the picture of stability either. And it's lost its minutes when Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are both on the floor.
But Domantas Sabonis has historically had some success against AD and will be able to engineer enough offense for the Kings to escape this first play-in game.
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
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