Men's NCAA Tournament 2025: Upset Meter for Every Sweet 16 Game
Four thrilling days of college basketball are in the books, and the 2025 men's NCAA tournament field has been trimmed to 16 teams.
With 12 of the 16 teams slotted on the 1-4 seeding lines still alive, only No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 BYU, No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 10 Arkansas have exceeded expectations to this point, and all four of those teams come from a major conference.
Will we see more upsets in the Sweet 16?
Ahead we've given our upset meter rating—low, moderate or high—for the chances of each underdog across all eight Sweet 16 matchups coming away with a victory.
The college basketball world now has a few days to catch its collective breath before the madness begins again next Thursday, so for now, let this serve as a preview of what's to come later this week.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU
1 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 7:09 pm ET on CBS
Moneyline: Alabama (-205)
The Alabama Crimson Tide managed to push the tempo against a Saint Mary's team that prefers to play at a more methodical path, and that was a recipe for success in an 80-66 victory that saw the Gaels give up a season-high in points.
While BYU does not play at the same blistering pace, they are far more capable of keeping up in a track meet, due in part to the fact that they go 10 players deep in their rotation.
The Cougars hung 91 points on No. 3 seed Wisconsin to pull off a mild upset in the second round, with star Richie Saunders tallying 25 points while the team knocked down 12-of-26 three-point attempts.
That was the fifth time in their last 10 games that BYU has reached 90 points, including a 96-92 win against a terrific Iowa State defense in the Big 12 tournament where they managed to push the tempo and run up the score.
The Crimson Tide will need more out of Mark Sears after he was limited to 12 points on 5-of-15 from the field and 0-of-4 from beyond the arc against Saint Mary's, but the size of Grant Nelson (6'11", 230 lbs) and Cliff Omoruyi (6'11", 250 lbs) could be a bigger X-factor for Alabama against an undersized BYU squad.
Upset Meter: Moderate. If the Cougars can find a way to negate Alabama's size advantage, they are well-equipped to handle their fast-paced style.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland
2 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 7:39 pm ET on CBS
Moneyline: Florida (-265)
This matchup very easily could have been UConn vs. Colorado State, with Florida pulling out a two-point win over the Huskies and Maryland needing a buzzer beater from Derik Queen for a 72-71 victory over the Rams.
It doesn't need to be pretty, just survive and advance.
The Gators were a popular pick to win it all heading into the NCAA tournament on the strength of their elite guard play, with Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard leading the charge for the No. 2 offense in the nation according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency.
That group now collides with a top-tier Terrapins defense that forces 14.1 turnovers per game, though it's worth noting that the Colorado State guard trio of Nique Clifford, Kyan Evans and Jalen Lake combined for 44 points on 16-of-36 shooting. The Gators trio will be even tougher to slow down.
While their defense is often the first thing mentioned, Maryland has also scored 90 points six different times this season, so if this turns into a shootout they are capable of hanging around. They shoot 37.3 percent from beyond the arc and all five starters average in double figures, though those five guys also play the vast majority of the minutes.
Upset Meter: Moderate. The Maryland defense is legit, and they do a nice job spreading things around offensively, making them less susceptible to an individual off night.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona
3 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 7:39 pm ET on TBS/truTV
Moneyline: Duke (-410)
Can anyone slow down the Duke Blue Devils?
The ACC champions have only lost three games all season, with one coming on the road during conference play against Clemson and the other two coming at neutral sites against Kentucky and Kansas, the latter of which was No. 1 in the AP poll at the time.
They won their first two NCAA tournament games against Mount Saint Mary's (93-49) and Baylor (89-66) by a combined 67 points, and they have now won 21 games by at least 20 points this season following their lopsided win over the Bears.
That might be one of the only compelling cases against this team.
Do they know how to play from behind, or how to grind out a close game? It's great to be dominant all season, but there are bound to be some close games at some point if they are going to make it all the way to the title game.
The Arizona Wildcats can also light it up offensively, and while they survived a shootout with Oregon on Sunday night in an 87-83 victory, that win made them just 3-6 in games where the opposition scores more than 80 points.
Unless Caleb Love lights it up for 40 points, the Wildcats might not be able to hang around for a full 40 minutes in a shootout with Duke. And if Love is having an off night, it might be over by halftime.
Upset Meter: Low. They are not quite at the level of last year's UConn team quite yet, but the Blue Devils are starting to look like they are in a tier of their own.
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas
4 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 10:09 pm ET on TBS/truTV
Moneyline: Texas Tech (-250)
After surviving a grind-it-out game with the No. 11 seed Drake Bulldogs and their glacial pace of play, Texas Tech will now be tasked with slowing down an Arkansas team that upset No. 7 seed Kansas and No. 2 seed St. John's en route to the Sweet 16.
The Razorbacks did a great job limiting Hunter Dickinson (11 points, 9 rebounds, 4/13 shooting) in the first round, but did not have the same success with St. John's big man Zuby Ejiofor (23 points, 12 rebounds, 7/12 shooting) on Saturday.
With that in mind, the story of the game on Thursday could be how they handle Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin (25 points, 12 rebounds, 11/13 shooting) and Darrion Williams (28 points, 11/18 shooting) on the inside after they both had huge games in the victory over Drake.
With John Calipari calling the shots and the Razorbacks playing arguably their best basketball of the season right now, this one feels a lot more evenly matched than a standard No. 3 seed vs. a No. 10 seed.
Upset Meter: Moderate. The Razorbacks survived the No. 1 defense in the nation when they knocked off St. John's, and that alone proves they have to be taken seriously as Final Four contenders. However, it will be a completely different story trying to slow down the Red Raiders offense.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
5 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 7:09 pm ET on CBS
Moneyline: Michigan State (-180)
The Michigan State Spartans held off a good No. 10 seed New Mexico on Sunday night, limiting a team that was averaging 81.1 points per game coming into the contest to under 65 points for just the eighth time this year.
Now they will be tasked with slowing down an Ole Miss Rebels squad that just hung 91 points on an Iowa State Cyclones defense that ranked No. 11 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric.
First things first, the Spartans will need to find a way to limit Ole Miss point guard Sean Pedulla, who put together big games against North Carolina (20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists) and Iowa State (20 points, 2 rebounds, 8 assists) to begin his March Madness run.
The Ole Miss defense does a great job creating extra possessions, averaging 14.2 forced turnovers and 8.7 steals per game, and the Spartans were turnover-prone at times this year so that could be an X-factor in a potential upset.
Largely overshadowed in a stacked SEC field this season, the Rebels beat Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, BYU and Louisville during the regular season, so there is no reason to think they can't give Michigan State a serious run.
Upset Meter: High. If the Rebels offense plays the way it did against Iowa State on Sunday, they can beat anyone.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Kentucky
6 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 7:39 pm ET on TBS/truTV
Moneyline: Tennessee (-218)
The Tennessee Volunteers have lost seven games this season, and two of those defeats have come against the Kentucky Wildcats.
Now they will square off for a third time with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
The first loss came in Knoxville on Jan. 28 by a narrow 78-73 margin, with all five Kentucky starters scoring in double figures and the Volunteers taking a season-high 45 three-pointers and connecting on just 11 of them.
The second was just a few weeks later on Feb. 11 with a 75-64 final score, and outside shooting was again an issue for Tennessee as they connected on just 3-of-18 from long range.
Tennessee leading scorer Chaz Lanier had two of his worst individual performances of the season, scoring a combined 25 points on 8-of-27 from the field and 3-of-17 from beyond the arc in those losses.
It is never easy to beat a team three times in one season, but the Wildcats found a blueprint for success with their perimeter defense and balanced scoring. Can they come out on top a third time and send the No. 2 seed in the Midwest packing?
Upset Meter: High. They've done it twice already, so it's hard not to think Kentucky has as good a chance as anyone to end Tennessee's season.
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan
7 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 9:39 pm ET on CBS
Moneyline: Auburn (-380)
The Auburn Tigers stumbled a bit down the stretch during the regular season with three losses in their final four games, but for much of the year they were the best team in the nation by a decent margin.
After winning by 20 points in the first round, the Tigers came away with an 82-70 victory over Creighton on Saturday, despite All-American Johni Broome (8 points, 4/13 shooting) being largely a non-factor, the Bluejays drilling 12-of-27 from beyond the arc and freshman Tahaad Pettiford leading the team in scoring with 23 points off the bench.
Up next is a Michigan team that creates a ton of matchup problems with 7-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, but the Tigers matchup as well as anyone with Dylan Cardwell (6'11", 250 lbs) and Johni Broome (6'10", 235 lbs) in the starting lineup.
If the Tigers can slow down that tandem and take advantage of the fact that the Wolverines average 13.9 turnovers per game, they could add another double-digit victory to their resume.
However, they will need more from Broome this time around, and if one of the bigs for either team gets into early foul trouble it will have a major impact on the game.
Upset Meter: Low. The Tigers simply have too many weapons and too many ways to beat you. They match up well enough with the Wolverines to take away their size advantage, and that will force their turnover-prone offense to rely more heavily on their guard play.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue
8 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 10:09 pm ET on TBS/truTV
Moneyline: Houston (-395)
After a 4-3 start to the season, the Houston Cougars are 28-1 since the beginning of December, with their lone loss during that span coming in overtime against Texas Tech on Feb. 1.
In other words, they are rolling.
After a 34-point win against an overmatched SIU-Edwardsville squad in the first round, they pulled out a hard-fought 81-76 victory over a massively underseeded Gonzaga team on Saturday to reach the Sweet 16 for the fifth year in a row.
Can Purdue derail the runaway freight train?
The Boilermakers are comfortable playing the slow style the Cougars tend to dictate with their elite defense, and they have a talented, experienced point guard in Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith to help facilitate in the halfcourt.
However, the bigger question is whether a Purdue defense that ranks outside the top 50 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency can slow down a Houston offense that has been every bit as good as its vaunted defense.
Upset Meter: Low. The Cougars are the more complete team, and even if they don't force a ton of turnovers, they have the offensive firepower to build an early lead and the defense to make a comeback next to impossible.
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