NCAA Tournament Bracket 2025: Predictions for Biggest Upsets of Men's 1st Round

Zach BuckleyMar 19, 2025

Madness is brewing in the college basketball world.

The 2025 NCAA Tournament technically tipped already with half of the First Four slate wrapping up Monday night. The real action starts Thursday, though, when 16 teams get sent packing, and 16 others set their weekend plans with second round matchups.

Chalk will probably prevail more often than not, but if the hoops history books have taught us anything, it's that upsets will happen. We're peaking ahead with a combination of forward projecting and crystal-ball reading to predict three of the biggest upsets we're about to witness in the opening round.

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No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis (West)

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Boise State Broncos v Colorado State Rams

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OK, so a No. 12 beating a No. 5 doesn't actually happen every year, but it doesn't feel right to fill out a bracket without at least one 12-over-5 upset, does it?

If the Rams make good on this prediction, the Selection Committee might be to blame.

Both oddsmakers and advanced metrics wonder if the wrong team is seeded higher here. No disrespect to the Tigers, who've gone 29-5 and enter the tournament on an eight-game winning streak, but they don't have the higher efficiency rating on KenPom (50th to Colorado State's 44th). They're also looking up at a point spread that favors the Rams.

Memphis can run hot and cold, and it could be without senior guard Tyrese Hunter, who ranks third on the team in scoring (13.7) and second in assists (3.6). Look for Colorado State and do-it-all star senior Nique Clifford to pull the "upset" here.

No. 13 Yale over No. 4 Texas A&M (South)

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL: NOV 23 Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off - Yale vs Fairfield

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Basketball maybe isn't the first thing to springs to mind with Yale, but the Bulldogs have had bite in this tournament. Just last season, they dispatched then fourth-seeded Auburn, and they made third-seeded LSU sweat out a five-point win in 2019.

This prediction has less to do with history, though, then it does the on-court matchup.

Defense is Yale's weakness, and Texas A&M hasn't flashed enough offensive ability to exploit it. That's actually being polite to the Aggies, who collectively shoot just 31.1 percent from three and average more turnovers (12.3) than assists (11.9). Texas A&M typically pounds opponents on the glass, but Yale enters this tilt with a plus-208 rebound differential.

The Aggies' lack of shooting shrinks their margin for error, and the Bulldogs, who convert 49 percent of their field-goals and 38.8 percent of their long-range looks, can and will take advantage of that.

No. 13 High Point over No. 4 Purdue (Midwest)

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL: JAN 22 High Point at USC Upstate

The fourth-seeded Boilermakers are backing into this matchup having dropped six of their last nine contests. The 13th-seeded Panthers, meanwhile, enter amid a 14-game that dates back to the middle of January and crowned them Big South champions of both the regular season and the conference tournament.

The level of competition obviously differed between these teams, but momentum still matters, and High Point has plenty of it.

The Panthers boast plenty of offensive production, too, snagging the 25th spot of KenPom's offensive efficiency ranks. Three players—senior guards Kezza Giffa and D'Maurian Williams and junior forward Kimani Hamilton—average better than 13 points per game and all shoot 44-plus percent from the field.

Purdue, which has suffered two first-round exits (as a fourth seed or better) in its last four tournament trips, hasn't always handled this spotlight well, and High Point has nothing to lose after securing its first ever ticket to the Big Dance. If the Boilermakers get even a less-than-stellar game out of Trey Kaufman-Renn, Braden Smith or Fletcher Loyer, they could spend most of this contest on #upsetalert.