Lunardi Bracketology 2025: Seeds, Bubble Teams After Duke, Alabama Beat UNC, Auburn

Auburn has lost two consecutive games following Saturday's overtime defeat against rival Alabama, but even that isn't enough to drop it from the No. 1 overall seed in the upcoming NCAA men's basketball tournament.

At least in Joe Lunardi's eyes.

The ESPN bracketologist released his latest projected tournament field following Saturday's full slate of college basketball games, and the Tigers are still the No. 1 overall seed. They are joined by Duke as a No. 1 seed after Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils defeated rival North Carolina on the road.

It was a missed opportunity for the Tar Heels, as they are firmly on the bubble entering the ACC tournament.

Here is a look at the top seeds and the primary bubble team in Lunardi's latest projection:

Top Seeds

No. 1 seeds: Auburn, Duke, Florida, Houston

No. 2 seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Alabama

No. 3 seeds: Kentucky, Iowa State, Texas A&M, St. John's

Bubble

Last Four Byes: Baylor, Arkansas, Utah State, Indiana

Last Four In: San Diego State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Xavier

First Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, Nebraska

It is a testament to Auburn's overall resume that it is still firmly atop the field even after losing to Texas A&M and Alabama this past week. The loss to the Crimson Tide means the two rivals split their regular-season matchups with the road team taking both.

Perhaps there is a rubber match in store for the SEC tournament.

That could allow Alabama, which slots in as a No. 2 seed, to make a play at one of the four coveted No. 1 seeds by Selection Sunday. Florida will also be in the SEC Tournament as it battles for a No. 1 seed, which underscores the SEC's overall strength this season.

As for the bubble, those teams are now in the precarious position of hoping bid-stealers don't take the few remaining spots available.

For instance, Drake is 29-3 overall and in ideal position to make the Big Dance even if it doesn't win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. But Drake losing in the conference tournament would mean another team from the MVC was in the field as well since conference tournament champions receive an automatic bid.

Yet those bubble teams can also play their way into the field with strong showings in their own conference tournaments.

Xavier is the rare bubble team with plenty of momentum after seven consecutive wins, including a blowout victory over Creighton. It plays a nationally ranked Marquette team in the Big East quarterfinals and could secure its bid with a headline victory.

By comparison, Ohio State and Oklahoma have been trying to overcome late-season inconsistency.

The Buckeyes are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and blew a double-digit lead in Saturday's loss at Indiana. That would have been the type of win that could have put them in the field, but they will instead need at least one or perhaps two wins in the Big Ten tournament.

The Sooners at least have two straight wins over Missouri and Texas, but they are also just 6-12 since their 13-0 start to the season.

Oklahoma may have to defeat at least Georgia in the SEC tournament, if not more, to feel comfortable with its tournament outlook.