Winners and Losers After Seahawks Trade Geno Smith to Raiders

The trades continue to roll in ahead of NFL free agency, which will officially begin on Wednesday. Perhaps the biggest deal to date unfolded on Friday night, when the Seattle Seahawks agreed to send quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders.

According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Las Vegas will get its new quarterback in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick.

This is obviously a big development for the Raiders, who now have a two-time Pro Bowler in their quarterback room. Seattle, meanwhile, is left searching for a new answer behind center.

However, the ripple effect will extend beyond those two franchises. Let's examine the biggest winners and losers of Friday's deal.

Winner: Las Vegas' New Brain Trust

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Raiders head coach Pete Carroll

Acquiring Smith, which should become official after the start of the new league year on Wednesday, gives the Raiders a quarterback plan. Smith may turn 35 in October, but he's made two Pro Bowls in the last three seasons and went 10-7 as a starter last year.

Smith will immediately become the best quarterback the Raiders have had since, perhaps, the prime years of Derek Carr. He'll also reunite with new head coach Pete Carroll, who previously coached Smith in Seattle.

In the wake of whiffing on a Matthew Stafford trade—Stafford accepted less money than the Raiders were offering to stay with the Los Angeles Rams, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated—getting Smith is a huge win. Getting a starting quarterback for a third-round pick is even better.

While Stafford might be a tier above Smith in the QB hierarchy, he likely would have cost Las Vegas its first-round pick. The Raiders can now use the sixth overall pick in April's draft on the best player available.

The Raiders also avoided giving up their best player, Maxx Crosby, who was recently signed to a three-year extension. According to Breer, Seattle tried to pry the pass-rusher away from Las Vegas in exchange for Smith and receiver DK Metcalf.

The trade should be viewed as a masterful maneuver by Carroll, new GM John Spytek and, yes, new minority owner Tom Brady. The new-look Raiders are looking for an immediate turnaround in 2025. They're being proactive about it, and they took a huge first step by securing a quarterback.

Loser: Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell

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QB Aidan O'Connell

Pretty much everyone involved with the Raiders organization should be thrilled to have Smith in the fold. That is, except for quarterback Aidan O'Connell.

The third-year signal-caller has been a serviceable starter when called upon over the past two seasons. The 2023 fourth-round pick has gone 7-10 as the starter and posted a respectable 85.1 passer rating. While he never established himself as Las Vegas' long-term answer, he could have been in line for another opportunity this season.

The Raiders recently informed Gardner Minshew that he'll be released at the start of the new league year, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

Minshew, a 2024 free-agent signing, and O'Connell took turns at the starting gig last season. While the Raiders were always expected to bring in another quarterback this offseason, Minshew's release might have opened the door for another QB competition.

If, for example, the Raiders had added former Seahawks Russell Wilson in free agency, O'Connell might have had a legitimate shot at winning said competition.

That's highly unlikely to happen with Smith as QB1. He's outperformed Wilson by a considerable degree over the past few years and didn't crash late last season the way Wilson did. Barring a massive surprise, Smith will be Las Vegas' QB answer for the next several seasons.

This means that O'Connell is now firmly entrenched in the backup role and will likely need to finish out his rookie contract to see another NFL starting opportunity.

Winner: Geno Smith

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QB Geno Smith

Smith is a big winner in this deal for a few reasons. For one, he's leaving a franchise that clearly no longer valued him highly, one that could be approaching a rebuild.

The Seahawks recently released longtime receiver Tyler Lockett, and they're listening to offers for Metcalf. Had Smith stayed in Seattle, he might have been without two of his top three receivers—Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn't going anywhere—this season.

Instead, he'll rejoin Carroll and lead an offense that features some quality targets in Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker—and those pass-catchers can be considered winners too.

Reuniting with Carroll should have a positive impact on the next stage of Smith's career. It was the coach's guidance that helped transform Smith from a career backup into a Pro Bowler and a locker room leader.

"He helped me change the way I spoke to myself," Smith told NFL Films.

Smith's move is also likely to come with a lucrative new contract. He's entering the final year of his current deal and due to earn a base salary of $14.8 million in 2025. According to Breer, the quarterback and the Seahawks were "far apart" in contract negotiations, with Smith seeking a deal worth $45 million annually.

In Las Vegas, Smith should have an easier time getting his preferred contract. According to Fox Sports' Jordan Schultz, the Raiders view Smith as a long-term answer and are already negotiating his next contract.

It's hard to imagine a better outcome for Smith than landing in Las Vegas.

Losers: QBs Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers

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QB Russell Wilson

Friday's trade essentially ensures that Las Vegas won't pursue a starting quarterback in free agency. That impacts the market for impending free agents like Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers.

Wilson is the biggest loser of the group, however. He had some bright moments with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024 but struggled late in the season, hurting his chances of a Pittsburgh return.

A return is still possible, but according to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Steelers haven't ruled out going in an entirely different direction at quarterback.

Outside of Pittsburgh, Las Vegas loomed as the most sensible destination for the 36-year-old because of his previous relationship with Carroll. However, a reunion was perceived as "unlikely," according to Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press.

The door to a Wilson-Carroll reunion has now been slammed shut. That's a major loss for an aging quarterback who was hoping to secure a sizeable long-term contract.

ESPN's Brooke Pryor reported in December that Wilson wants to play "five to seven more years."

Wilson may not be stuck with another short-term "prove-it" deal in free agency.

The Smith trade could also be viewed as a loss for New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, albeit to a lesser extent. The Jets are set to release the 41-year-old, and the quarterback would have been "an option" for the Raiders, according to Maaddi.

There's now one less team potentially in the market for Rodgers.

Winner: Vikings QB Sam Darnold

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The Smith trade should be a welcome development for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. The 27-year-old was a Pro Bowler in 2024 but played on a one-year contract. Minnesota must now decide whether to re-sign Darnold or officially turn the page to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy—who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury.

Darnold is unlikely to get a top-of-the-market long-term offer from the Vikings. However, he may get one from Seattle now that Smith is out.

"Now, with Sam Howell and Jaren Hall the only quarterbacks on Seattle’s roster, the Seahawks are turning their attention to Darnold," The Athletic's Michael-Shawn Dugar wrote on Friday.

If the Seahawks end up with Darnold, they'll probably consider themselves big winners. They obviously didn't view Smith as their QB of the future, and the younger Darnold has the potential to be just that. Of course, he'll have to replicate the success he had in Minnesota and avoid regressing to the poor play he exhibited early in his career.

Darnold, though, is a winner right now. Seattle apparently likes Darnold enough to part with an above-average starter in the hopes of signing him. That suggests that Darnold will receive at least one enticing offer in free agency.

The USC product may ultimately choose to re-sign with Minnesota on a short-term deal or sign elsewhere on a longer contract. Because of Seattle's questionable offensive line and current receiver situation, the Seahawks may not be the quarterback's first choice. However, Seattle's interest can only help his market and, in turn, his pocket book.

According to Breer, the Seahawks were willing to pay Smith $35 million per season. That figure should now be the floor for Darnold's next contract.

Losers: Other Quarterback-Needy Teams

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Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin

The Raiders have their QB, possibly for the foreseeable future. That's great for them but bad for other teams in the 2025 quarterback market.

While there wasn't excessive buzz about a Smith trade prior to the deal, he was obviously available. With Stafford returning to L.A., that means two viable starters are off the proverbial table. Seattle's interest in Darnold is likely to drive up his price point, which could be problematic for some interested franchises.

The Steelers, for example, got away with having Wilson and Fields on team-friendly deals last season. If the quarterback alternatives they're considering include Darnold, they're highly unlikely to get him on a bargain deal.

Other teams in the quarterback market include the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and the Jets. Their options now include paying heavily for Darnold—who is no sure thing—pursuing an even more questionable free agent or targeting a quarterback in the draft.

All of these options carry more risk than sending off a Day 2 draft pick for Smith.

Fields has upside but hasn't established himself as a high-level starter for even a season. Wilson's play has declined since the tail end of his Seattle career, and Rodgers is the oldest player in the NFL.

Kick Cousins may become available, though he struggled in 2024, and the Atlanta Falcons have no plans to release him, according to Pelissero.

The draft options aren't immensely better.

Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders are the top two quarterback prospects in this year's class. Both could end up being top-five draft selections, though neither is the sort of "can't-miss" quarterback teams prefer to target that early in the draft.

In short, it's not a good time to be an NFL team in need of a signal-caller. It appears even worse in the wake of the Smith trade and with Seattle openly interested in Darnold. Kudos to the Raiders for taking themselves out of this year's QB carousel.