NHL Trade Grades: Blackhawks Send Seth Jones to Panthers for Spencer Knight

On February 26, Seth Jones blasted the Blackhawks’ season in front of cameras. Four days later, he’s packing his bags and headed to southern Florida. That’s how quickly moves can materialize around the trade deadline.

The Panthers show they mean business, unsatisfied with one Stanley Cup. But Jones did not live up to expectations in Chicago. How much form should we expect him to recapture on a contender and how much have the Panthers’ Cup repeat chances improved?

For Chicago, was the return worth eating a significant amount of cap space for the next five seasons?

Let’s dive into trade grades for the Panthers and Blackhawks.

Florida Panthers

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Most reasonable people had the Panthers firmly entrenched in the “contender” category. The 2024 Stanley Champions sit sixth overall in the NHL by points percentage and they still seem capable of another gear. There was no avoiding the reality that this year’s group of defensemen lacked the depth of last year’s; Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson departed in the offseason as free agents. That’s a lot of lost speed and offensive production from the blue line.

At least in terms of name-brand recognition, it will be hard for any team to beat out Seth Jones as a deadline addition on defense. The former fourth-overall pick is a four-time NHL All-Star.

It’s fair to say that Jones, the subject of a blockbuster deal involving the Blue Jackets four years ago, did not live up to the hype in Chicago. A $9.5 million cap hit now, and especially in 2021, implied borderline Norris trophy output.

Even at his best, Jones played below that standard and sometimes alarmingly so. Over the last few seasons, he’s produced offense at roughly a 40-point rate over a full NHL season. And while Jones has all the tools one would ask of a defensive pillar, he hasn’t defended against the rush or in-zone as one would hope.

To be fair to Jones, the Blackhawks have been a mess all-around but especially on defense, where he was hardly surrounded by NHL-caliber defensemen.

In Florida, expect Jones to feature high up the lineup but he won’t be alone and his game is tailor-made for what the Panthers want to do. One of the better skaters in the league, Jones should fit right in. He uses his feet to escape pressure and moves puck up the ice. He gets involved down low in the offensive zone. The 6’4” American has the mobility and range to swallow up neutral zone space if coached correctly.

There are definitely ways this could go wrong for Florida. Even at a $7 million cap hit, Jones may struggle to meet that valuation with his play and the five remaining years on his deal could make his contract an anchor down the line.

Those down-the-line worries pale in comparison to their ambition to win a Stanley Cup now and in the next few seasons. The contract is now at least palatable and Jones is a huge injection into the lineup, notably hurdling over Aaron Ekblad, a free agent in July, on the right side of the defense. Such an impact cost them what will likely be a first-round pick and the team’s backup goaltender.

Florida is one of the few teams that could afford to assume this type of risk-laden move. You can parse through all sorts of ways the Jones contract might create problems down at a later date but sometimes it’s not worth overthinking things. The Panthers are a top team who just added a major difference-maker in an area of need for the next few seasons in which they should contend for a Stanley Cup.

Grade: A-

Chicago Blackhawks

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Spencer Knight

There are a few ways to look at this trade as a win for the Blackhawks. First, the situation with Jones was becoming increasingly untenable as his desire to leave and frustration with the stagnant rebuild were becoming uncomfortably public. On an expedited timeline, they were able to remove him before things became truly toxic.

Jones has underperformed his contract ever since he arrived in Chicago and it was fair to wonder if they’d be able to move him at all while also getting value in return. The $2.5 million cap retention for Chicago is not too bad. They probably won’t be a cap team the next couple of seasons anyway and in a few years, the league-wide cap ceiling will be so big that $2.5 million will be fairly negligible.

The Blackhawks also receive two notable pieces from Florida. Spencer Knight, 23, was drafted 13th overall in 2019 and for a few years was one of the best goaltending prospects the league has seen in years. He dominated in juniors and made a mockery of the NCAA. His career plateaued in Florida for a few reasons. Sergei Bobrovsky gripped the starters’ net. Then Knight took some time off for mental health reasons.

Knight is so physically talented and technically skilled. He still has every chance to become an All-Star caliber NHL starting goaltender. Of course, the Blackhawks receive a 2027 first-round pick as well. In terms of value, the Blackhawks did fairly well here. And yet this move is highly worrying.

The Blackhawks are stuck in a paradox of their own making. They are trading Jones in response to the lack of progress they’ve made as a franchise, yet swapping Jones for future pieces puts them even farther away from relevancy. A young goaltender like Knight is going to get crushed under the duress of the onslaught that Chicago has already subjected their goaltenders to. That will only get worse without Jones’ presence.

Meanwhile, the first-round pick they acquired represents a theoretical player who may not even enter the NHL until 2030. If the idea is that the Blackhawks need to end a nihilistic trajectory and give Conor Bedard some infrastructure around him, then this trade is a step in the wrong direction.

The Blackhawks already had a lot of heavy lifting ahead to become a respectable team and give some life to the organization beyond Bedard. That project now has the added burden of replacing Jones as a top-pairing defenseman.

This trade was a win for the Blackhawks on value and escaping a quickly growing problem. But it only spawns more concerns about how much more of Bedard’s career the Blackhawks may waste.

Grade: B-